Conference realignment "Rumors" "tweets" "etc"

[Bull Matrix]

1 minute ago, NewEnglandBull said:

I got another three national media people who are saying it’s just a shifting down for a few years and additions will be made from the PAC. No one knows I guess. 

In a few years USF will be a top 25 program so I’m sure we will then have the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten fighting for us lol

[NewEnglandBull]

2 minutes ago, Bull Daly said:

In a few years USF will be a top 25 program so I’m sure we will then have the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten fighting for us lol

Yes that LOL was appropriate

[Bull Matrix]

7 minutes ago, NewEnglandBull said:

Yes that LOL was appropriate

Yeah cause a lot of different things can happen. Not sure if Big Ten will want Florida & Georgia markets. If they do then maybe GT and some school from Florida? The reality is that the population growth in both Florida & Texas has been amazing. So why would the Big Ten drop the ball and not expand their network?  I wouldn’t be surprised if the SEC grabbed Ok St & another Texas schools to help balance their Southeast & Southwest set up. 

[Eric Ruby]

ACC Grant of Rights

The ACC Grant of Rights will not be broken until it officially ends in 2036. It takes 100% of the ACC members to vote on it. The GoR says so on page 4, section 8. Attorneys can do nothing to break it. It was sighed by all members to stay true until 2036. There are no loopholes. The ACC GoR has zero to do with the TV contract.  Every school signed over to the ACC all TV/media rights to all until 2036. That cannot be bought out with any amount. The buyouts are totally separate. More on that in a bit. It means FSU and Clemson could leave, if they wanted. But the rest of the ACC gets all of their TV revenue and can decide whether or not they’re allowed to be in TV at all until 2036. They make zero $$ until 2036. Too add, if they left, they’d have to pay out their share of the remaining TV contract. If they left in 2026, they’d owe $350 million. Then there is the AAC exit fee of $100 million. Totally separate from the TV buyout. All of that to leave the ACC is real. It can be fought in court, but they have no case. Each president signed the Grant of Rights over to the ACC. Judge would throw it out. Here’s some perspective. The ACC modeled their GoR exactly after the Big 12 GoR signed in 2012. Big 12 GoR expires in 2025. Texas and Oklahoma will not join the SEC until 2025. That is not speculation, that was confirmed a month or so ago. The reason being is that GoR. With all that money Texas has, they could not get out of that GoR even with only 2-3 years left on it. Even then it was too costly and the Big 12 owns their TV rights until then. The ACC is totally stuck. But that bodes well for USF. Buys a lot of time. 

Edited August 6, 2022 by Eric Ruby

[Cubanbull]

26 minutes ago, Eric Ruby said:

ACC Grant of Rights

The ACC Grant of Rights will not be broken until it officially ends in 2036. It takes 100% of the ACC members to vote on it. The GoR says so on page 4, section 8. Attorneys can do nothing to break it. It was sighed by all members to stay true until 2036. There are no loopholes. The ACC GoR has zero to do with the TV contract.  Every school signed over to the ACC all TV/media rights to all until 2036. That cannot be bought out with any amount. The buyouts are totally separate. More on that in a bit. It means FSU and Clemson could leave, if they wanted. But the rest of the ACC gets all of their TV revenue and can decide whether or not they’re allowed to be in TV at all until 2036. They make zero $$ until 2036. Too add, if they left, they’d have to pay out their share of the remaining TV contract. If they left in 2026, they’d owe $350 million. Then there is the AAC exit fee of $100 million. Totally separate from the TV buyout. All of that to leave the ACC is real. It can be fought in court, but they have no case. Each president signed the Grant of Rights over to the ACC. Judge would throw it out. Here’s some perspective. The ACC modeled their GoR exactly after the Big 12 GoR signed in 2012. Big 12 GoR expires in 2025. Texas and Oklahoma will not join the SEC until 2025. That is not speculation, that was confirmed a month or so ago. The reason being is that GoR. With all that money Texas has, they could not get out of that GoR even with only 2-3 years left on it. Even then it was too costly and the Big 12 owns their TV rights until then. The ACC is totally stuck. But that bodes well for USF. Buys a lot of time. 

Very true. But the ACC can’t stay in their current contract until 2036, while the BigTen and SEC are making twice as much. So they need to reopen the contract and the only way they can do that is by adding schools.

Notre Dame isn’t coming to join them.

So that really leaves Big12 school or AAC school. The best shot for a Big12 school like a WV is after 2024 when their GOR runs out, but they will still have to pay exit fee of two years of tv revenues about 80 million.

This is why is critical for USF to build and win

 

[SANJAY]

18 hours ago, Bull Daly said:

We shall see. Probably be a P4 with ACC, SEC, PAC12, BigTen. I just don’t see the Big 12 being able to find any power teams to anchor them. They are kind of going away like the University Mall did after they lost their anchor stores. 

If the B12 is University Mall then what is the AAC? East Lake mall circa 1987?

16 hours ago, Rocky Style said:

This is depressing for a kid from the south.

Those old Jefferson Pilot broadcasts seem quaint. Like leather helmets quaint.

[FanFromAfar]

3 hours ago, Eric Ruby said:

ACC Grant of Rights

The ACC Grant of Rights will not be broken until it officially ends in 2036. It takes 100% of the ACC members to vote on it. The GoR says so on page 4, section 8. Attorneys can do nothing to break it. It was sighed by all members to stay true until 2036. There are no loopholes. The ACC GoR has zero to do with the TV contract.  Every school signed over to the ACC all TV/media rights to all until 2036. That cannot be bought out with any amount. The buyouts are totally separate. More on that in a bit. It means FSU and Clemson could leave, if they wanted. But the rest of the ACC gets all of their TV revenue and can decide whether or not they’re allowed to be in TV at all until 2036. They make zero $$ until 2036. Too add, if they left, they’d have to pay out their share of the remaining TV contract. If they left in 2026, they’d owe $350 million. Then there is the AAC exit fee of $100 million. Totally separate from the TV buyout. All of that to leave the ACC is real. It can be fought in court, but they have no case. Each president signed the Grant of Rights over to the ACC. Judge would throw it out. Here’s some perspective. The ACC modeled their GoR exactly after the Big 12 GoR signed in 2012. Big 12 GoR expires in 2025. Texas and Oklahoma will not join the SEC until 2025. That is not speculation, that was confirmed a month or so ago. The reason being is that GoR. With all that money Texas has, they could not get out of that GoR even with only 2-3 years left on it. Even then it was too costly and the Big 12 owns their TV rights until then. The ACC is totally stuck. But that bodes well for USF. Buys a lot of time. 

 

My understanding is the ACC would only get the rights from the home games of those schools. Which means they'd still be ahead given how much the P2 will make. And they could play neutral games to avoid it, and be way ahead. A battle of attrition is hard to win against schools set to make $800 million more in next 14 years if in P2. 

If you're hoping for USF to get added, you DON'T want the GOR to hold. That means Miami and FSU are not leaving anytime soon, which means USF is not added anytime soon. Adding schools, if those two can't get out, likely means P5s- either PAC (4 corners) or Big 12 (6-10, aka at least R8 dissolution plus Cincy, Houston). 

But the GOR won't hold the ACC together imo. And I don't think any additions will appease some in the ACC. It is not for perpetuity, so leftovers come 2036 will be looking to settle to improve their post-GOR position. Which should not be hard given the 2016 era TV deal is bad. They'll be able to get parity or a premium to the next 14 years in ACC, in exchange for letting schools leave. This is USF's best bet. Miami and FSU leave, now you're in play one way or another. 

First, the Big 12 route- If the BIG/FOX moves first, taking more PAC. This would mean a Big 16 or Big 18, which makes it tough for ESPN to both move FSU and Miami while making ACC third conference. So if a Big 16 happens, look for momentum for the Big 12 to add USF or Memphis to pick up, to get ahead of the ACC and show commitment to eastern members. There is a faction that wants USF now regardless, but the PAC targets are in denial about the P5 era being over. If all 4 corners stay with PAC, it will get crazy imo....

Second, the "ACC" route- without adding PAC, it is not unfathomable to see enough Big 12 schools band together, with ESPN as a benefactor, to go to the ACC and get dissolution. 6 of the 8 left by OU/UT need to vote for dissolution I believe, and Cincy and Houston appealing for ACCN considerations. If this was brokered by ESPN in exchange for the non-P2 schools letting FSU, Miami, Clemson, VT to SEC, then I'd expect those 8 Big 12 schools plus UCF and USF added to replace FSU and Miami. That's 20. My guess is two of Kansas St, Iowa St, and TT would be out, along with BYU. Maybe the R8 Big 12 schools band together in that case to get all included. Maybe it stays at 20 until 4 corners are available. Maybe P2 go 24 schools each, and any P5 not named Oregon St and WSU are in the ACC, plus Memphis. 

that's my long winded way to say, USF will end up moving up. If FSU and Miami end up in P2 it is certain imo. But even if that is not for awhile, I'd expect the Big 12/16 will get ahead and add USF imo. 
 

it’s been a good summer for USF. Any notion of a western based P4 is out (western P3 conference never made sense Imo). If BIG takes 4 more, the west won’t be contributing much to whatever forms below P2. Basically, Oregon st, WSU, SDSU are trending down or out, and USF up. 

Edited August 6, 2022 by FanFromAfar

[Bull Matrix]

7 hours ago, SANJAY said:

If the B12 is University Mall then what is the AAC? East Lake mall circa 1987?

Those old Jefferson Pilot broadcasts seem quaint. Like leather helmets quaint.

The AAC is life boats from the sunken ship know as Big East football. The Big 12 is a sinking ship that will soon need lifeboats aka Big East 2.0

[Eric Ruby]

9 hours ago, Cubanbull said:

Very true. But the ACC can’t stay in their current contract until 2036, while the BigTen and SEC are making twice as much. So they need to reopen the contract and the only way they can do that is by adding schools.

Notre Dame isn’t coming to join them.

So that really leaves Big12 school or AAC school. The best shot for a Big12 school like a WV is after 2024 when their GOR runs out, but they will still have to pay exit fee of two years of tv revenues about 80 million.

This is why is critical for USF to build and win

 

Adding schools does not change the GoR. The new schools would have to sign the GoR that ends in 2036, as well. Adding schools does not mean more revenue, it would mean less. Adding Oregon or Washington wouldn’t even add revenue. They’re looking at barely $25 mil yr in the PAC. They’re stuck and will just have to wait all the way until 2036, no matter how pissed off it makes certain teams that want out. 

[Eric Ruby]

6 hours ago, FanFromAfar said:

 

My understanding is the ACC would only get the rights from the home games of those schools. Which means they'd still be ahead given how much the P2 will make. And they could play neutral games to avoid it, and be way ahead. A battle of attrition is hard to win against schools set to make $800 million more in next 14 years if in P2. 

If you're hoping for USF to get added, you DON'T want the GOR to hold. That means Miami and FSU are not leaving anytime soon, which means USF is not added anytime soon. Adding schools, if those two can't get out, likely means P5s- either PAC (4 corners) or Big 12 (6-10, aka at least R8 dissolution plus Cincy, Houston). 

But the GOR won't hold the ACC together imo. And I don't think any additions will appease some in the ACC. It is not for perpetuity, so leftovers come 2036 will be looking to settle to improve their post-GOR position. Which should not be hard given the 2016 era TV deal is bad. They'll be able to get parity or a premium to the next 14 years in ACC, in exchange for letting schools leave. This is USF's best bet. Miami and FSU leave, now you're in play one way or another. 

First, the Big 12 route- If the BIG/FOX moves first, taking more PAC. This would mean a Big 16 or Big 18, which makes it tough for ESPN to both move FSU and Miami while making ACC third conference. So if a Big 16 happens, look for momentum for the Big 12 to add USF or Memphis to pick up, to get ahead of the ACC and show commitment to eastern members. There is a faction that wants USF now regardless, but the PAC targets are in denial about the P5 era being over. If all 4 corners stay with PAC, it will get crazy imo....

Second, the "ACC" route- without adding PAC, it is not unfathomable to see enough Big 12 schools band together, with ESPN as a benefactor, to go to the ACC and get dissolution. 6 of the 8 left by OU/UT need to vote for dissolution I believe, and Cincy and Houston appealing for ACCN considerations. If this was brokered by ESPN in exchange for the non-P2 schools letting FSU, Miami, Clemson, VT to SEC, then I'd expect those 8 Big 12 schools plus UCF and USF added to replace FSU and Miami. That's 20. My guess is two of Kansas St, Iowa St, and TT would be out, along with BYU. Maybe the R8 Big 12 schools band together in that case to get all included. Maybe it stays at 20 until 4 corners are available. Maybe P2 go 24 schools each, and any P5 not named Oregon St and WSU are in the ACC, plus Memphis. 

that's my long winded way to say, USF will end up moving up. If FSU and Miami end up in P2 it is certain imo. But even if that is not for awhile, I'd expect the Big 12/16 will get ahead and add USF imo. 
 

it’s been a good summer for USF. Any notion of a western based P4 is out (western P3 conference never made sense Imo). If BIG takes 4 more, the west won’t be contributing much to whatever forms below P2. Basically, Oregon st, WSU, SDSU are trending down or out, and USF up. 

That’s not how the GoR works. FSU and Clemson would get $0 until 2036 if they left. They’re not going to take $0 just to beef up their schedule. ESPN would hate that too. Its just that TV couldn’t air their home games. Not to mention they’d have to pay like $500 million on top of the loss of rights. It’s not one or the other. All ACC teams are stuck until 2036. As for the PAC 12, they’re toast by 2024. That’s when their GoR is expired and nobody is going to want to sign a new PAC12 GoR and are getting lowballed from ESPN right now, scrambling to find a Tv deal. Big 12 will land new members from the PAC. I think by 2025 there will no longer be a P5. It will be a P4. New CFB Playoff starts in 2026. But nobody knows who will be involved with that or how. The current format and committee expire in 2025. So right now, the CFP format and leadership does not exist in any form as of 2026. For all we know, B1G/SEC can try to run it themselves and take all the money. But I don’t see that happening. I think it’ll be expanded to 12 games include more at large opportunities. P4 will be ACC, SEC, Big12 and B1G until 2036. After 2036, all hell breaks loose.