Attrition can negate great recruiting class

[Knight_Light]

Special Report from the Orlando Sentinel

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/college/orl-academics2105aug21,0,1667335.story?coll=orl-sports-headlines-college

SPECIAL REPORT

Attrition can negate great recruiting classes

Academic deficiency is the primary culprit, but other factors also cause player losses.

Alan Schmadtke

Sentinel Staff Writer

August 21, 2005

No one ever said recruiting football players was an exact science.

Every August, football coaches are reminded why.

An Orlando Sentinel analysis of five years of Division I-A signing classes in Florida shows almost 15 percent of new recruits never made it to their first fall practice or, if they did, were unable to play as freshmen.

As NCAA leaders usher Division I sports into a new era of academic accountability, headlined by introduction of the Academic Progress Rate, Florida's I-A schools have reasons to inspect their recruit practices.

Academic deficiency was the overwhelming reason 85 of 574 recruits failed to put on pads in proper time. Most of the non-participants -- 75 of the 85 -- were not cleared to participate by the NCAA Clearinghouse. A few had scholarships withdrawn when schools, after National Signing Day, declined to enroll them or decided to have them come in later.

Other reasons for newcomers' attrition included legal troubles and the chance to play pro baseball.

"I think you're seeing more and more and more players now who don't quite qualify," said Florida State Coach Bobby Bowden, whose program was the state leader in non-qualifiers this season with four. "[but] we're going to take the best players we can get who look like they can graduate from college."

National Signing Day is the start of a weeklong period in February when high school players and colleges formally bind themselves to each other. Once, it was a little-noticed day of happiness all around college football. Through the years, it became an event unto itself.

Cable networks, Internet sites and newspapers -- including this one -- grade, analyze and rate recruiting classes of the now-119 Division I-A schools. Winning the recruiting wars, it is reasoned, is a vital step in winning a conference championship or national title.

Although many nonqualifiers are steered to prep school or junior college, there's no assurance of success. In fact, some players are never heard from again.

The Collegiate Commissioners Association, which administers the National Letter of Intent program, keeps records of signees and re-signees but not necessarily players who sign but end up at prep schools or junior colleges.

The NCAA, which certifies the academics of every incoming athlete in every sport, keeps statistics on which signees are cleared and which are not. The association doesn't account for athletes who don't show up for other reasons.

"That's one we don't have solid numbers on," said Eric Hartung, the NCAA's assistant director of research. "The only way to track that is through schools and through the Academic Performance Rate, but that doesn't account for athletes who might never show up."

USF biggest loser

The Sentinel compiled lists of Florida, Florida State, Miami, UCF and USF recruiting classes from 2001-2005. Transfers from four-year schools were removed from consideration. An analysis found:

USF endured the largest five-year loss. The Bulls, whose first season of I-A competition was 2001, had 27 signees fail to put on pads during the preseason that followed their recruitment. An additional recruit from 2005 is awaiting an OK from the NCAA Clearinghouse to play this season. The Bulls also came in with the largest single-season loss, as Coach Jim Leavitt's 2003 class had seven (out of 26) recruits slip. That total included one player who enrolled in January 2003 as a late academic qualifier and another who signed in February 2003 but reported to school with a torn knee ligament and was sent home.

Miami recorded the second-most losses overall, at 19. UM's 2002 and 2004 classes included six players who did not go through the Hurricanes' preseason camp that year. From that '02 class, three of the six eventually did make their way onto the Hurricanes' roster. From '04, two of the six made it to UM.

Florida's five-year loss total was nine, lowest among the five schools, including a 2001 summertime death of Eraste Autin and a 2002 pre-college knee injury by Channing Crowder. The Gators also signed the fewest players (104) over the five years examined.

Florida State lagged behind Florida and UCF but ahead of USF and Miami. The Seminoles incurred initial attrition of 17 signees over the five-year period.

UCF offered the most contradictions. It signed the most players during the five years (122) but had the second-lowest number of losses (12). The disparity comes from the Golden Knights' attrition of upperclassmen, a trait that likely helped them ring up last year's 0-11 record. For example, only seven players from a 29-member class in 2001 completed their athletic eligibility at UCF. UCF's low freshman attrition total was aided dramatically by its past two recruiting classes, in which only one player failed to report for fall camp.

"With the 85 scholarships [total], you can make some mistakes [in recruiting], but you can't make many," UCF Coach George O'Leary said. "If you make too many, you're going to be hurting."

When factoring in reasons other than grades, the 14.8-percent attrition level during the five years agrees with the NCAA's early academic research. In the most recent data available, for the 1998 incoming class, the NCAA Clearinghouse rejected 13.2 percent (11,668 athletes) in football and men's basketball. The clearinghouse does not break out football-only data, NCAA spokesman Erik Christianson said.

Tolerable amount differs

Football coaches said they are comfortable they can manage their recruiting classes to whatever risk level they need. The question: What's tolerable?

The amount can differ by school, and it can differ year by year at a specific school.

"The number changes every year," first-year Florida Coach Urban Meyer said. "You have to look at your whole squad and you have to look at the caliber of player -- and if he's a good person. A young person who struggles academically but is a good person . . . we'll go to the wall for you."

A year after losing four recruits (Autin and three others to grade deficiencies), Florida's freshman attrition level was one. And that came because Crowder opted to report in January after rehabilitating his knee.

Two recruits failed to make it into UF from its 2003 class. Three others were washouts for the Gators in 2004. This year, former Mainland High tight end Brian Ellis is the Gators' lone absence. Ellis did not qualify academically and is expected to enroll in a California junior college.

Academics hardly is the sole reason for attrition. Sometimes schools contribute to it directly by asking recruits to "blueshirt," or enroll one or two semesters late. That allows coaches to juggle their scholarship numbers.

The NCAA caps I-A scholarship totals at 85 during an academic year. As part of the equation, schools can put up to 25 players on scholarship in any year.

But come National Signing Day in February, they can, under NCAA regulations, sign as many recruits as they want. For the schools that go beyond 25, the catch is in the calculating.

Recruiting coordinators, coaches and academic advisers evaluate every potential recruit before signing day. Eventually, it comes to this: projecting -- guessing -- which recruits will make the grade and which will not. If more than 25 sign and qualify, schools either must release them to other schools or must convince them to delay enrollment. Sometimes it's a gamble that plays out in strange ways.

Take Miami and Josh Kerr. A year ago, Miami counted Kerr, an offensive lineman from Strongsville, Ohio, among its incoming class. At 6 feet 4 and 275 pounds, Kerr was considered one of the best offensive linemen in Ohio. UM outfought Ohio State for his signature.

He was a full academic qualifier, but sometime after signing day, Miami asked him to delay enrolling at UM until January 2005. Kerr said no. Miami gave him a release, though it's unclear whether Kerr asked for it.

Through UM spokesman Rick Korch, Miami coaches said they had no idea what became of their former recruit. A reporter for the Cleveland Plain Dealer said Kerr's mother, Susan, told the paper in the spring Josh was to enroll this year at Ohio State, where older brother John is a Buckeyes linebacker. Phone messages to Kerr's home in Ohio were not returned.

APR changes things

The NCAA has introduced a new element to the equation, the Academic Progress Rate. Controversial, much-debated and little-understood, the APR is designed to reward schools whose players stay in school and graduate.

For recruiting purposes, it means schools must take a hard look at bringing in athletes judged to be poor academic risks.

"Obviously, you can't go out there and sign 25 guys who are going to fall into that category," FSU recruiting coordinator John Lilly said. "You might could sign about five, a smaller number where you feel like a majority of those have a better-than-average chance to make it."

Recruits who never make it to college don't factor into the APR. But if they're borderline academically, they're long-term risks.

"You can't take 25 below-the-line guys," said East Carolina Coach Skip Holtz, who has recruited at Connecticut and South Carolina. "You have to pick and choose your battles."

The five-year data also brings to light not only how tenuous the process of recruiting can be but also how fragile the athletes can be. The line between big-time and close to nowhere is a fine one -- just like any other high school graduate that chooses not to further his education.

Not only were three Florida universities unable to provide information about some former signees, a handful of those players' former high school coaches or athletic directors were similarly in the dark.

Sentinel staffers Emily Badger, Bill Buchalter and Mike Huguenin, Sentinel correspondent Peter Thomson and South Florida Sun-Sentinel reporter Omar Kelly contributed to this report.

[CyberBull]

"UCF offered the most contradictions. It signed the most players during the five years (122) but had the second-lowest number of losses (12). The disparity comes from the Golden Knights' attrition of upperclassmen, a trait that likely helped them ring up last year's 0-11 record. For example, only seven players from a 29-member class in 2001 completed their athletic eligibility at UCF. UCF's low freshman attrition total was aided dramatically by its past two recruiting classes, in which only one player failed to report for fall camp."

Great! Now they have good students who can't win. I guess they forgot the 'athlete' from the term "student-athlete".

[South_Tampa_Knight]

Ah Cyber, you should lose your moderator status again, this time for starting crap on this board.

[CyberBull]

Ah Cyber, you should lose your moderator status again, this time for starting crap on this board.

What do you mean again....

BTW, assclown tell me about how endowment funds are "spent".

[DawgPound]

I personally don't like the APR.  It's like Florida judging school districts based on the FCAT scores.

[MavTechKNIGHT2]

What do you mean again....

BTW, assclown tell me about how endowment funds are "spent".

Seriously!

If someone else posted this, there would be hell to pay. If you are going to make some rules STICK TO THEM!

[TripleB]

Ah Cyber, you should lose your moderator status again, this time for starting crap on this board.

Seriously!

If someone else posted this, there would be hell to pay. If you are going to make some rules STICK TO THEM!

[South_Tampa_Knight]

Mav, you should know that cyber starts most of the BS and also breaks most of the rules.  That is why he does not go to the unmoderated board too often, without his little delete button he can't hang in an argument for more than one post.  

[MavTechKNIGHT2]

Mav, you should know that cyber starts most of the BS and also breaks most of the rules.  That is why he does not go to the unmoderated board too often, without his little delete button he can't hang in an argument for more than one post.  

I agree.

Where are ZBC and DP?

[DawgPound]

I can't speak for ZBC but I've been around(and running around dealing with UCF servers being swamped by 45k kids wanting their schedules).

Cyber didn't delete anything.  But really, CB, we do have a level of professionalism to keep.