Less than 8 wins, and this year will have been a complete disappointment to me
The way I see it, games fall into these categories when predicting how many wins we will have. Obviously nothing is for sure, but this is how I pencil in the games as.
Wins - Towson, SMU, UCF, ECU (Their recruiting has been pretty down, and they lost their star defensive players)
Probable wins (We probably drop 1 of these, or very easily 2 of them if we aren't careful) - NIU, Syracuse, UConn, Cincinnati, Navy (They lose everybody on offense)
Toss ups - Temple, Memphis (They lose Lynch, but they still have fire power)
Probable losses - FSU, (and Houston if we make the CCG like I am predicting)
This makes my prediction to be about 9-3, but possibly 10-2 if we really take care of business not including the bowl game.