Statistically Speaking...

[cayman]

So the engineer in my has been thinking about this for a while...even a few games back.

The better team would be the team that has the better chance to win.  However, that doesnt mean they will win.  Lets take a simple example.  If you flip a coin, every once in a while it will be heads 3 or 4 times in a row.  That doesnt mean that heads in any better than tails, it just happens that way sometimes.

So lets analyze this.  The auburn game could have gone either way.  We came up "heads" that day, but could have easily came up "tails".  In a similar fashion we just came up short the last few games, but were in all 3 of them. 

What does this mean?  To me it just means we got a little lucky early in the season inflating our ranking (remember we could have EASILY lost the auburn game and may not have hit the top 10).  The last few games, it didnt go our way (we hit tails 3 times in a row, it happens).  We are still on par with those teams, we just are not significantly better.  We would need something like a 70-80% chance of beating those teams that a #2 team would.  We are more like a top 25 team and sometimes will beat them and sometimes won't.

So in summary, I think we are top 25 team that has the chance to beat any team in the country if we get a little lucky (as shown earlier in the year).  We are a top 25 that has the chance to lose 3 straight to teams at a comparable level (as shown recently).  We are a top 25 team because we are should (and did) beat other teams at the bottom half of the division 1.  Its not too bad, we just got a little too high too fast and now are coming back to reality.

[BleacherBull]

Your analysis is most reassuring (makes me feel better than anything else I've read going into the Syracuse game).  Who knows, Grothe could turn out to be claustrophobic in the Carrier Dome.  Anyway, I think you're right, probably 9 times out of 10.

[USF-PMR]

I bullieve that on any given Saturday any team can show up and beat any team.  Like the toss of a coin...Heads we win Tails we loose.

[WoolyBully]

So in summary, I think we are top 25 team that has the chance to beat any team in the country if we get a little lucky (as shown earlier in the year).  We are a top 25 that has the chance to lose 3 straight to teams at a comparable level (as shown recently).  We are a top 25 team because we are should (and did) beat other teams at the bottom half of the division 1.  Its not too bad, we just got a little too high too fast and now are coming back to reality.

I agree 100% - which would be a composite of 50% heads and 50% tails. Had USF not beaten both AU & WVU, we would not have been ranked at the over inflated #2 position. The down side is, there are some people who honest-to-God thought that was a realistic position. And managing expectations is a difficult task, no matter how realistic you try to be, which really did make these last three games 'feel' worse than they really are (objectively...given we still have 3 games to go).

As far as luck...don't underestimate the importance of luck. All it takes is the right six numbers on Saturday night and those deadlines at work just don't seem to be that oppressive any longer. Same with the games...one caught pass here, one less penalty there...yeah, there's skill involved, but there's also luck.

[Jake_Ryan]

Good analysis.

Speaking of luck, I was thinking how all the bounces went Cincy's way Saturday.  The long TD pass deflected by Nate Allen, the room service hop on the blocked punt for the TD, the punt return Edwards muffed that popped right to the Cincy guy, the ball just out of Jenkins hands on the onside kick, just to name a few off the top of my head. 

Now, some will say Cincy was in position and made the plays, and there is some truth to that, but it sure seemed everything went against USF in that game (and maybe the last 3).