What needs to happen next wk for......

[Jewbull]

In the end book plane tickets to B'ham cause the above sceneario really has a very very low percentage chance of happening.  After reading posts and looking online, I really do not see Louiville getting picked over LSU, therefore B'ham it would be.

**And if WVU wins which is a strong possibility there is no way a Rutgers team gets picked over LSU and WVU wouldnt move up enough to get picked over LSU

[South_Florida_Flip]

Michigan shouldn't fall that low to #4. There was a bit of room between them and UF. I wouldn't be shocked at all to see Arkansas beat them next week.

Louisville should jump Wisconsin, who is a non factor at this point anyways. It just depends on how far WVU, Arkansas and ND fall. WVU will fall the most, but Arkansas and ND shouldn't fall a whole lot.

[Guest]

Arkansas will beat UF.  Their running game is far better than anything UF has faced this far this year.  UF has not looked that impressive -- not beating a I-A program by more than 7 since LSU on Oct 7th.

UM will not fall below #3.  That means they are guaranteed a BCS birth no matter what.

[gobulls83]

If Louisville jumps Wisconsin and Florida loses to Arkansas, the Cardinals could get up to No. 4, securing an automatic spot. LSU again is the problem, though, as they'll likely jump the Cards this week. USC losing to UCLA presents the same possibility.

If Michigan is #4 then Louisville doesn't get the automatic bid at #4.  The selection process says that if #3 is a non-champion then they get it, if #4 is a non-champion and #3 was a champion, then #4 gets it.

So, to get the bid automatically the final BCS needs to end up:

1 OSU

2 UM

3 USC

4 U of L

That means LSU needs to be behind U of L this week and then U of L, RU, UCLA, and Arkansas win next week.  (If LSU jumps U of L and it's close, U of L could jump back with a BIG BIG win over U Conn - style points count).

There is another possibility.

If USC and Florida both lose (not likely, but not out of the question), and Louisville can stay ahead of LSU, it wouldn't even matter if they leapt Wisconsin. Wisconsin is out of the running; UM and OSU are both automatics, and no conference can have more than two BCS games. So even if Wisconsin is 3 or 4, if Michigan is No. 2 (which they would be if USC loses), Wisconsin is gone and No.4 Louisville (if they hold off LSU) is in.

[Doc]

If the title game goes OSU-Mich, couldn't the Rose Bowl then select Notre Dame to play USC?  I know it's a rematch, but it's still Notre Dame money and Notre Dame publicity.  If so, then the Sugar Bowl picks next, so I guess it doesn't help our cause that it's in the middle of LSU country.  Any chance they would pick Louisville over LSU and a rematch vs the SEC champ?  Wishful thinking on my part, I guess.

[Guest]

If the title game goes OSU-Mich, couldn't the Rose Bowl then select Notre Dame to play USC?  I know it's a rematch, but it's still Notre Dame money and Notre Dame publicity.  If so, then the Sugar Bowl picks next, so I guess it doesn't help our cause that it's in the middle of LSU country.  Any chance they would pick Louisville over LSU and a rematch vs the SEC champ?  Wishful thinking on my part, I guess.

Yes, technically that could happen.  Also, technically, the Gator Bowl could select USF over WVU.  In both cases, it just ain't gonna happen.

The Rose Bowl gets to pick first because if either USC or UM are in the title game, they lose one of their host schools (Pac 10 vs Big 10).  However, since both USC and UM BLEW OUT Notre Dame, I don't see a rematch as likely.  The Rose Bowl is the only bowl on January 3rd, so they don't need to worry about eyeballs as much.  And since they will have either USC or UM - both of whom could sell out the Rose Bowl alone - a team that travels well is not as important either.

[Guest]

If Louisville jumps Wisconsin and Florida loses to Arkansas, the Cardinals could get up to No. 4, securing an automatic spot. LSU again is the problem, though, as they'll likely jump the Cards this week. USC losing to UCLA presents the same possibility.

If Michigan is #4 then Louisville doesn't get the automatic bid at #4.  The selection process says that if #3 is a non-champion then they get it, if #4 is a non-champion and #3 was a champion, then #4 gets it.

So, to get the bid automatically the final BCS needs to end up:

1 OSU

2 UM

3 USC

4 U of L

That means LSU needs to be behind U of L this week and then U of L, RU, UCLA, and Arkansas win next week.  (If LSU jumps U of L and it's close, U of L could jump back with a BIG BIG win over U Conn - style points count).

There is another possibility.

If USC and Florida both lose (not likely, but not out of the question), and Louisville can stay ahead of LSU, it wouldn't even matter if they leapt Wisconsin. Wisconsin is out of the running; UM and OSU are both automatics, and no conference can have more than two BCS games. So even if Wisconsin is 3 or 4, if Michigan is No. 2 (which they would be if USC loses), Wisconsin is gone and No.4 Louisville (if they hold off LSU) is in.

True.  But since U of L was only .003 behind Wisconsin last week, and the Badgers don't play, I would expect the Cardinals to jump over them fairly easily.  The hard part is to see what happens to LSU.

[smazza]

RUTGERS WILL  not be in  a bcs game

[Guest]

RUTGERS WILL  not be in  a bcs game

So you're predicting a WVU win this week, then?

Rutgers wins -- they will be in a BCS bowl.

[sdgukhsdgl]

LSU should jump UL in the polls this week, they went on the road and beat a top 5 team.  

As mentioned earlier, Arkansas should beat UF, so a 2-loss UF comes into the mix of at-large teams as well.  It appears that the at-large decision comes down to UF or LSU because I think WVU should beat Rutgers, and WVU and RU will not get BCS bids