Bowl Analysis -- Detailed by Conference -- Week 12

[Jim Johnson]

Bowl Analysis

Currently there are 69 teams eligible for 64 bowl slots...

4 teams will likely become eligible...

7 more have a mathematical chance to eligible, but it's not likely...

It is possible anywhere from 73 to 80 teams to be eligible for the 64 bowl slots.

"Eligible" = 6 wins // "Ineligible" = 7 losses

Three bowl bids have already been accepted.

---

Big East conference - 6 Slots - 6 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Pittsburgh, Louisville, Rutgers, West Virginia, South Florida, Cincinnati

Need 1 Win:  NONE

Need 2 Wins:

    Connecticut (Cincy, @ Lou)

Bowl Ineligible: Syracuse

Need 1 Loss:

    Connecticut (Cincy, @ Lou)

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Sugar, Orange) - Louisville, West Virignia

Sun - Rutgers

Texas - Cincinnati

Meineke - Navy

Birmingham - South Florida

International - Pittsburgh

---

Atlantic Coast Conference - 8 Slots - 7 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Florida State

Need 1 Win:

    Miami (FL) (BC)

    Virginia (@ Va Tech)

Bowl Ineligible: Duke, North Carolina, NC State

Need 1 Loss:

    Virginia (@ Va Tech)

    Miami (FL) (BC)

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Orange Bowl) - Georgia Tech

Chik-Fil-A - Wake Forest

Gator - Boston College

Champs - Virginia Tech

Music City - Clemson

Meineke - Maryland

Emerald - Florida State

MPC Computers - OPEN (Washington State)

---

Big Ten Conference - 7 Slots - 7 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State, Iowa, Purdue, Minnesota

Bowl Ineligible: Illinois, Northwestern, Michigan State, Indiana

Jim's Projections:

BCS (National Championship, Rose Bowl) - Ohio State, Michigan

Capitol 1 - Wisconsin

Outback - Penn State

Champs - Purdue

Alamo - Minnesota

Insight - Iowa

Motor City - OPEN (Kansas)

---

Big Twelve Conference - 8 Slots - 9 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Nebraska, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Kansas

Bowl Ineligible: Colorado, Iowa State, Baylor

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Fiesta) - Texas

Gator - Oklahoma

Cotton - Nebraska

Holiday - Texas A&M

Alamo - Kansas State

Insight - Missouri

Independence - Ok State

Texas - Texas Tech

Motor City - Kansas (BIG TEN SLOT)

---

Pacific Ten Conference - 6 Slots - 8 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Southern Cal, California, Oregon, Washington State, Oregon State, Arizona State, Arizona, UCLA

Bowl Ineligible: Stanford, Washington

Jim's Projections:

BCS (National Championship) - USC

Holiday - California

Sun - Oregon

Vegas - Oregon St

Emerald - Arizona/Arizona State Winner

Hawaii - Arizona/Arizona State Loser

MPC Computers - Washington St. (ACC SLOT)

Poinsettia - UCLA (AT LARGE SLOT)

---

Southeastern Conference - 8 Slots - 9 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: LSU, Florida, Auburn, Tennessee, Georgia, Arkansas, Alabama, Kentucky, South Carolina

Bowl Ineligible: Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Rose) - Florida

Capitol 1 - Arkansas

Cotton - LSU

Outback - Auburn

Chick-Fil-A - Georgia

Music City - Tennessee

Liberty - Kentucky

Independence - Alabama

No Bowl - South Carolina

---

Conference USA - 5 Slots - 7 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Tulsa, Houston, East Carolina, Southern Mississippi, Southern Methodist, Rice

Need 1 Win:

    UTEP (Memphis)

    Marshall (So Miss)

Bowl Ineligible: Memphis, UCF, Alabama-Birmingham, Tulane

Need 1 Loss:

    Marshall (So Miss)

    UTEP (Memphis)

Jim's Projections:

Liberty - Houston

GMAC -  Sothern Mississippi

Birmingham - East Carolina

Armed Forces - Tulsa

New Orleans - Southern Methodist/Rice Winner

No Bowl - Southern Methodist/Rice Loser

No Bowl - UTEP

---

Mid-American Conference - 3 Slots - 5 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Ohio, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Kent State, Northern Illinois

Need 1 Win:

    Akron (W Mich)

Bowl Ineligible: Miami (OH), Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, Ball State, Toldeo, Bowling Green

Need 1 Loss:

    Akron (W Mich)

Jim's Projections:

Motor City - Central Michigan

GMAC - Ohio

International - Western Michigan

No Bowl - Kent State

No Bowl - Northern Illinois

---

Mountain West Conference - 4 Slots - 5 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Brigham Young, TCU, Utah, Wyoming

Need 1 Win:

    New Mexico (San Diego St)

Need 2 Wins:

    Colorado State (TCU, @ San Diego St)

    Air Force (@ UNLV, @ TCU)

Bowl Ineligible: UNLV, San Diego State

Need 1 Loss:

    Colorado State (TCU, @ San Diego St)

    Air Force (@ UNLV, @ TCU)

    New Mexico (San Diego St)

Jim's Projections:

Las Vegas - BYU

Poinsettia - Utah

Armed Forces - TCU

New Mexico - New Mexico

No Bowl - Wyoming

---

Western Athletic Confernece - 3 Slots - 4 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Boise State (@ Nevada), Hawaii, Nevada, San Jose State

Bowl Ineligible: Utah State, Fresno State, New Mexico State, Louisiana Tech, Idaho

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Fiesta) - Boise State

MPC Computers - Nevada

New Mexico - San Jose St

Hawaii - Hawaii

---

Sun Belt - 1 Slot - 4 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Middle Tennesee State, Arkansas State

Need 1 Win:

    Troy (@ Mid Ten St, @ FIU)

    Louisiana-Lafayette (Ark St, LA-Mon)

Need 2 Wins:

Bowl Ineligible: Florida International, Louisiana-Monroe, North Texas, Florida Atlantic

Need 1 Loss: NONE

Need 2 Losses:

    Troy (@ Mid Ten St, @ FIU)

    Louisiana-Lafayette (Ark St, LA-Mon)

Jim's Projections:

New Orleans - Middle Tennessee State

No Bowl - Arkansas State

No Bowl - Louisiana-Lafayette

No Bowl - Troy

---

I-A Indepenents - 2 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Notre Dame, Navy

Bowl Ineligible: Temple, Army

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Sugar) - Notre Dame

Meineke - Navy

---

Projected Open Bowl Slots

Poinsettia [At Large Slot] - Army failed to get to 6 wins, therefore this is an open slot.

Motor City [big Ten Slot] - With 2 BCS bids, the Big Ten won't have enough eligible teams.

MPC Computers [ACC Slot] - The ACC likely won't have enough eligible teams.

Projected Available Teams - For the Open Bowl Slots Above

7-5 teams

Kent State (Poinsettia)

Northern Illinois (MPC Computers)

Arkansas State (Motor City)

6-6 teams

Kansas

Washington State

UCLA

South Carolina

Southern Methodist/Rice Loser

Wyoming

Louisiana Lafayette

Troy

Projected BCS At-Large Teams

Boise State

Notre Dame

Michigan/Ohio State Loser

West Virginia

---

NCAA Bylaws

30.9.2 Contest Status. [i-A] A contest shall be licensed only if it serves the purpose of providing a national contest between deserving winning teams. A “deserving winning team†shall be defined as one that has won a minimum of six games against Division I-A opponents and that has more wins than losses. Tie games do not count in determining a team’s won-lost record. Further, when forfeiture of a regular-season football victory is required by the Committee on Infractions, a conference or self-imposed by an institution as a result of a violation of NCAA rules, neither of the competing institutions may count that contest in satisfying the definition of a “deserving winning team.†(Revised: 10/18/89, 10/12/93, 4/20/99)

30.9.2.1 Exception  12 Game Season. An institution with a record of six wins and six losses may be selected for participation in a bowl game under the following circumstances: (Adopted: 4/27/06 effective 8/1/06)

(a) The institution or its conference has a primary contractual affiliation, which existed prior to the first contest of the applicable season, with the sponsoring bowl organization. In the case of a conference contractual affiliation, all conference teams with winning records must be placed in one of the contracted bowl games before any institution with a record of six wins and six losses may be placed in a contracted bowl game. There shall be no contingency agreements with other sponsoring bowl organizations intended to enable an institution with a record of six wins and six losses to become eligible for those contests; or

( All contractual affiliations per Bylaw 30.9.2.1-(a) have been fulfilled and all institutions with winning records have received bowl invitations (either through a contractual affiliation or as an at large selection).

(Emphasis added.)

[Guest]

Post was updated to reflect which teams will likely be 6-6 and which will be 7-5.

Hard to believe that a 6-6 Kansas team will stay home while a 7-5 Arkansas State team will get to go to a bowl.

But that is the way I read 30.9.2.1-( [above]

[TVBull]

Bowl Analysis

Projected BCS At-Large Teams

Boise State

Notre Dame

Michigan/Ohio State Loser

Louisiville

How is Louisville a BCS at-large?  If WVU and Louisville go undefeated Louisville wins the BE.

[Guest]

Bowl Analysis

Projected BCS At-Large Teams

Boise State

Notre Dame

Michigan/Ohio State Loser

Louisiville

How is Louisville a BCS at-large?  If WVU and Louisville go undefeated Louisville wins the BE.

Yeah, yeah.  As you pointed out before I got it wrong.  Sorry. Didn't fix this one.

[Guest]

UPDATE BASED ON THE NEW BCS - AND MOST LIKELY SCENARIOS

---

Bowl Analysis

Currently there are 69 teams eligible for 64 bowl slots...

4 teams will likely become eligible...

7 more have a mathematical chance to eligible, but it's not likely...

It is possible anywhere from 73 to 80 teams to be eligible for the 64 bowl slots.

"Eligible" = 6 wins // "Ineligible" = 7 losses

Three bowl bids have already been accepted.

---

Big East conference - 6 Slots - 6 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Pittsburgh, Louisville, Rutgers, West Virginia, South Florida, Cincinnati

Need 1 Win:  NONE

Need 2 Wins:

    Connecticut (Cincy, @ Lou)

Bowl Ineligible: Syracuse

Need 1 Loss:

    Connecticut (Cincy, @ Lou)

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Orange) - Louisville

Gator - West Virignia

Texas - Rutgers

Meineke - Navy

Birmingham - South Florida

International - Cincinnati

No Bowl - Pittsburgh

---

Atlantic Coast Conference - 8 Slots - 7 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Florida State

Need 1 Win:

    Miami (FL) (BC)

    Virginia (@ Va Tech)

Bowl Ineligible: Duke, North Carolina, NC State

Need 1 Loss:

    Virginia (@ Va Tech)

    Miami (FL) (BC)

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Orange) - Georgia Tech

Chik-Fil-A - Boston College

Gator - Virginia Tech

Champs - Wake Forest

Music City - Clemson

Meineke - Maryland

Emerald - Florida State

MPC Computers - OPEN (Washington State)

---

Big Ten Conference - 7 Slots - 7 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State, Iowa, Purdue, Minnesota

Bowl Ineligible: Illinois, Northwestern, Michigan State, Indiana

Jim's Projections:

BCS (National Championship, Rose Bowl) - Ohio State, Michigan

Capitol 1 - Wisconsin

Outback - Penn State

Champs - Purdue

Alamo - Minnesota

Insight - Iowa

Motor City - OPEN (Kansas)

---

Big Twelve Conference - 8 Slots - 9 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Nebraska, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Kansas

Bowl Ineligible: Colorado, Iowa State, Baylor

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Fiesta) - Texas

Gator - Oklahoma

Cotton - Nebraska

Holiday - Texas A&M

Alamo - Kansas State

Insight - Missouri

Independence - Ok State

Texas - Texas Tech

Motor City - Kansas (BIG TEN SLOT)

---

Pacific Ten Conference - 6 Slots - 8 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Southern Cal, California, Oregon, Washington State, Oregon State, Arizona State, Arizona, UCLA

Bowl Ineligible: Stanford, Washington

Jim's Projections:

BCS (National Championship) - USC

Holiday - California

Sun - Oregon

Vegas - Oregon St

Emerald - Arizona/Arizona State Winner

Hawaii - Arizona/Arizona State Loser

MPC Computers - Washington St. (ACC SLOT)

Poinsettia - UCLA (AT LARGE SLOT)

---

Southeastern Conference - 8 Slots - 9 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: LSU, Florida, Auburn, Tennessee, Georgia, Arkansas, Alabama, Kentucky, South Carolina

Bowl Ineligible: Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Sugar, Rose) - Florida, Arkansas

Capitol 1 - Auburn

Cotton - LSU

Outback - Tennessee

Chick-Fil-A - Georgia

Music City - Kentucky

Liberty - Alabama

Independence - South Carolina

---

Conference USA - 5 Slots - 7 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Tulsa, Houston, East Carolina, Southern Mississippi, Southern Methodist, Rice

Need 1 Win:

    UTEP (Memphis)

    Marshall (So Miss)

Bowl Ineligible: Memphis, UCF, Alabama-Birmingham, Tulane

Need 1 Loss:

    Marshall (So Miss)

    UTEP (Memphis)

Jim's Projections:

Liberty - Houston

GMAC -  Sothern Mississippi

Birmingham - East Carolina

Armed Forces - Tulsa

New Orleans - Southern Methodist/Rice Winner

No Bowl - Southern Methodist/Rice Loser

No Bowl - UTEP

---

Mid-American Conference - 3 Slots - 5 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Ohio, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Kent State, Northern Illinois

Need 1 Win:

    Akron (W Mich)

Bowl Ineligible: Miami (OH), Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, Ball State, Toldeo, Bowling Green

Need 1 Loss:

    Akron (W Mich)

Jim's Projections:

Motor City - Central Michigan

GMAC - Ohio

International - Western Michigan

No Bowl - Kent State

No Bowl - Northern Illinois

---

Mountain West Conference - 4 Slots - 5 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Brigham Young, TCU, Utah, Wyoming

Need 1 Win:

    New Mexico (San Diego St)

Need 2 Wins:

    Colorado State (TCU, @ San Diego St)

    Air Force (@ UNLV, @ TCU)

Bowl Ineligible: UNLV, San Diego State

Need 1 Loss:

    Colorado State (TCU, @ San Diego St)

    Air Force (@ UNLV, @ TCU)

    New Mexico (San Diego St)

Jim's Projections:

Las Vegas - BYU

Poinsettia - Utah

Armed Forces - TCU

New Mexico - New Mexico

No Bowl - Wyoming

---

Western Athletic Confernece - 3 Slots - 4 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Boise State (@ Nevada), Hawaii, Nevada, San Jose State

Bowl Ineligible: Utah State, Fresno State, New Mexico State, Louisiana Tech, Idaho

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Fiesta) - Boise State

MPC Computers - Nevada

New Mexico - San Jose St

Hawaii - Hawaii

---

Sun Belt - 1 Slot - 4 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Middle Tennesee State, Arkansas State

Need 1 Win:

    Troy (@ Mid Ten St, @ FIU)

    Louisiana-Lafayette (Ark St, LA-Mon)

Need 2 Wins:

Bowl Ineligible: Florida International, Louisiana-Monroe, North Texas, Florida Atlantic

Need 1 Loss: NONE

Need 2 Losses:

    Troy (@ Mid Ten St, @ FIU)

    Louisiana-Lafayette (Ark St, LA-Mon)

Jim's Projections:

New Orleans - Middle Tennessee State

No Bowl - Arkansas State

No Bowl - Louisiana-Lafayette

No Bowl - Troy

---

I-A Indepenents - 2 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Notre Dame, Navy

Bowl Ineligible: Temple, Army

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Sugar) - Notre Dame

Meineke - Navy

---

Projected Open Bowl Slots

Poinsettia [At Large Slot] - Army failed to get to 6 wins, therefore this is an open slot.

Motor City [big Ten Slot] - With 2 BCS bids, the Big Ten won't have enough eligible teams.

MPC Computers [ACC Slot] - The ACC likely won't have enough eligible teams.

Projected Available Teams - For the Open Bowl Slots Above

7-5 teams

Kent State (Poinsettia)

Northern Illinois (MPC Computers)

Arkansas State (Motor City)

6-6 teams

Pittsburgh

Kansas

Washington State

UCLA

Southern Methodist/Rice Loser

Wyoming

Louisiana Lafayette

Troy

Projected BCS At-Large Teams

Boise State

Notre Dame

Michigan/Ohio State Loser

Florida/Arkansas Loser

---

NCAA Bylaws

30.9.2 Contest Status. [i-A] A contest shall be licensed only if it serves the purpose of providing a national contest between deserving winning teams. A “deserving winning team†shall be defined as one that has won a minimum of six games against Division I-A opponents and that has more wins than losses. Tie games do not count in determining a team’s won-lost record. Further, when forfeiture of a regular-season football victory is required by the Committee on Infractions, a conference or self-imposed by an institution as a result of a violation of NCAA rules, neither of the competing institutions may count that contest in satisfying the definition of a “deserving winning team.†(Revised: 10/18/89, 10/12/93, 4/20/99)

30.9.2.1 Exception  12 Game Season. An institution with a record of six wins and six losses may be selected for participation in a bowl game under the following circumstances: (Adopted: 4/27/06 effective 8/1/06)

(a) The institution or its conference has a primary contractual affiliation, which existed prior to the first contest of the applicable season, with the sponsoring bowl organization. In the case of a conference contractual affiliation, all conference teams with winning records must be placed in one of the contracted bowl games before any institution with a record of six wins and six losses may be placed in a contracted bowl game. There shall be no contingency agreements with other sponsoring bowl organizations intended to enable an institution with a record of six wins and six losses to become eligible for those contests; or

( All contractual affiliations per Bylaw 30.9.2.1-(a) have been fulfilled and all institutions with winning records have received bowl invitations (either through a contractual affiliation or as an at large selection).

(Emphasis added.)

[sdgukhsdgl]

30.9.2.1( really screws up some bowl games... I am sure some bowls are really excited about taking Arkansas St potentially over Pitt, USC, UCLA, Kansas, etc.  

[Guest]

Upated with Miami's win tonight and the Big Ten bowl selections.

---

Bowl Analysis

Currently there are 70 teams eligible for 64 bowl slots...

4 teams will likely become eligible...

6 more have a mathematical chance to eligible, but it's not likely...

It is possible anywhere from 74 to 80 teams to be eligible for the 64 bowl slots.

"Eligible" = 6 wins // "Ineligible" = 7 losses

Eight bowl bids have already been accepted.

---

Big East conference - 6 Slots - 6 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Pittsburgh, Louisville, Rutgers, West Virginia, South Florida, Cincinnati

Need 1 Win:  NONE

Need 2 Wins:

    Connecticut (Cincy, @ Lou)

Bowl Ineligible: Syracuse

Need 1 Loss:

    Connecticut (Cincy, @ Lou)

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Orange) - Louisville

Gator - West Virignia

Texas - Rutgers

Meineke - Navy

Birmingham - South Florida

International - Cincinnati

No Bowl - Pittsburgh

---

Atlantic Coast Conference - 8 Slots - 8 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Florida State, Miami

Need 1 Win:

    Virginia (@ Va Tech)

Bowl Ineligible: Duke, North Carolina, NC State

Need 1 Loss:

    Virginia (@ Va Tech)

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Orange) - Georgia Tech

Chik-Fil-A - Boston College

Gator - Virginia Tech

Champs - Wake Forest

Music City - Clemson

Meineke - Maryland

Emerald - Florida State

MPC Computers - Miami

---

Big Ten Conference - 7 Slots - 7 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State, Iowa, Purdue, Minnesota

Bowl Ineligible: Illinois, Northwestern, Michigan State, Indiana

Jim's Projections:

BCS (National Championship, Rose Bowl) - Ohio State, Michigan

Capitol 1 - Wisconsin

Outback - Penn State

Champs - Purdue

Alamo - Iowa

Insight - Minnesota

Motor City - OPEN (Kansas)

---

Big Twelve Conference - 8 Slots - 9 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Nebraska, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Kansas

Bowl Ineligible: Colorado, Iowa State, Baylor

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Fiesta) - Texas

Gator - Oklahoma

Cotton - Nebraska

Holiday - Texas A&M

Alamo - Kansas State

Insight - Missouri

Independence - Ok State

Texas - Texas Tech

No Bowl - Kansas

---

Pacific Ten Conference - 6 Slots - 8 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Southern Cal, California, Oregon, Washington State, Oregon State, Arizona State, Arizona, UCLA

Bowl Ineligible: Stanford, Washington

Jim's Projections:

BCS (National Championship) - USC

Holiday - California

Sun - Oregon

Vegas - Oregon St

Emerald - Arizona/Arizona State Winner

Hawaii - Arizona/Arizona State Loser

No Bowl - Washington St.

No Bowl - UCLA

---

Southeastern Conference - 8 Slots - 9 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: LSU, Florida, Auburn, Tennessee, Georgia, Arkansas, Alabama, Kentucky, South Carolina

Bowl Ineligible: Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Sugar, Rose) - Florida, Arkansas

Capitol 1 - Auburn

Cotton - LSU

Outback - Tennessee

Chick-Fil-A - Georgia

Music City - Kentucky

Liberty - Alabama

Independence - South Carolina

---

Conference USA - 5 Slots - 7 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Tulsa, Houston, East Carolina, Southern Mississippi, Southern Methodist, Rice

Need 1 Win:

    UTEP (Memphis)

    Marshall (So Miss)

Bowl Ineligible: Memphis, UCF, Alabama-Birmingham, Tulane

Need 1 Loss:

    Marshall (So Miss)

    UTEP (Memphis)

Jim's Projections:

Liberty - Houston

GMAC -  Sothern Mississippi

Birmingham - East Carolina

Armed Forces - Tulsa

New Orleans - Southern Methodist/Rice Winner

No Bowl - Southern Methodist/Rice Loser

No Bowl - UTEP

---

Mid-American Conference - 3 Slots - 5 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Ohio, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Kent State, Northern Illinois

Need 1 Win:

    Akron (W Mich)

Bowl Ineligible: Miami (OH), Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, Ball State, Toldeo, Bowling Green

Need 1 Loss:

    Akron (W Mich)

Jim's Projections:

Motor City - Central Michigan

GMAC - Ohio

International - Western Michigan

Poinsettia - Northern Illinois (AT LARGE SLOT)

No Bowl - Kent State

---

Mountain West Conference - 4 Slots - 5 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Brigham Young, TCU, Utah, Wyoming

Need 1 Win:

    New Mexico (San Diego St)

Need 2 Wins:

    Colorado State (TCU, @ San Diego St)

    Air Force (@ UNLV, @ TCU)

Bowl Ineligible: UNLV, San Diego State

Need 1 Loss:

    Colorado State (TCU, @ San Diego St)

    Air Force (@ UNLV, @ TCU)

    New Mexico (San Diego St)

Jim's Projections:

Las Vegas - BYU

Poinsettia - Utah

Armed Forces - TCU

New Mexico - New Mexico

No Bowl - Wyoming

---

Western Athletic Confernece - 3 Slots - 4 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Boise State (@ Nevada), Hawaii, Nevada, San Jose State

Bowl Ineligible: Utah State, Fresno State, New Mexico State, Louisiana Tech, Idaho

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Fiesta) - Boise State

MPC Computers - Nevada

New Mexico - San Jose St

Hawaii - Hawaii

---

Sun Belt - 1 Slot - 4 Teams Projected to be Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Middle Tennesee State, Arkansas State

Need 1 Win:

    Troy (@ Mid Ten St, @ FIU)

    Louisiana-Lafayette (Ark St, LA-Mon)

Need 2 Wins:

Bowl Ineligible: Florida International, Louisiana-Monroe, North Texas, Florida Atlantic

Need 1 Loss: NONE

Need 2 Losses:

    Troy (@ Mid Ten St, @ FIU)

    Louisiana-Lafayette (Ark St, LA-Mon)

Jim's Projections:

New Orleans - Middle Tennessee State

Motor City - Arkansas State (BIG TEN SLOT)

No Bowl - Louisiana-Lafayette

No Bowl - Troy

---

I-A Indepenents - 2 Teams Eligible

Bowl Eligible: Notre Dame, Navy

Bowl Ineligible: Temple, Army

Jim's Projections:

BCS (Sugar) - Notre Dame

Meineke - Navy

---

Projected Open Bowl Slots

Poinsettia [At Large Slot] - Army failed to get to 6 wins, therefore this is an open slot.

Motor City [big Ten Slot] - With 2 BCS bids, the Big Ten won't have enough eligible teams.

Projected Available Teams - For the Open Bowl Slots Above

7-5 teams

Northern Illinois (Poinsettia)

Arkansas State (Motor City)

Kent State

6-6 teams

Pittsburgh

Kansas

Washington State

UCLA

Southern Methodist/Rice Loser

Wyoming

Louisiana Lafayette

Troy

Projected BCS At-Large Teams

Boise State

Notre Dame

Michigan/Ohio State Loser

Florida/Arkansas Loser

---

NCAA Bylaws

30.9.2 Contest Status. [i-A] A contest shall be licensed only if it serves the purpose of providing a national contest between deserving winning teams. A “deserving winning team†shall be defined as one that has won a minimum of six games against Division I-A opponents and that has more wins than losses. Tie games do not count in determining a team’s won-lost record. Further, when forfeiture of a regular-season football victory is required by the Committee on Infractions, a conference or self-imposed by an institution as a result of a violation of NCAA rules, neither of the competing institutions may count that contest in satisfying the definition of a “deserving winning team.†(Revised: 10/18/89, 10/12/93, 4/20/99)

30.9.2.1 Exception  12 Game Season. An institution with a record of six wins and six losses may be selected for participation in a bowl game under the following circumstances: (Adopted: 4/27/06 effective 8/1/06)

(a) The institution or its conference has a primary contractual affiliation, which existed prior to the first contest of the applicable season, with the sponsoring bowl organization. In the case of a conference contractual affiliation, all conference teams with winning records must be placed in one of the contracted bowl games before any institution with a record of six wins and six losses may be placed in a contracted bowl game. There shall be no contingency agreements with other sponsoring bowl organizations intended to enable an institution with a record of six wins and six losses to become eligible for those contests; or

( All contractual affiliations per Bylaw 30.9.2.1-(a) have been fulfilled and all institutions with winning records have received bowl invitations (either through a contractual affiliation or as an at large selection).

(Emphasis added.)

[Grateful Dad]

Darn!  I really wanted us to have an opportunity to spank Southern Miss.

[Guest]

^^^ Actually, I probably need to look at the C-USA games again.

Houston will probably play Southern Mississippi for the Championship -- and the Liberty Bowl slot.  The loser probably goes to the GMAC bowl, which gets the 2nd selection.

The other "winning" teams will be Tulsa and the Rice/SMU winner.  ECU could be as well, if they beat NC State this week.  If SMU beats Rice and ECU loses, then Tulsa will be in Birmingham.  If Rice wins, then I don't know if Rice or Tulsa will be in Birmingham.  However, if ECU does win -- then expect the Pirates to be at Legion Field no matter what.

Still a lot of "ifs" to be played out.

[South_Florida_Flip]

LSU's win really hurts the Big East's chances for 2 BCS teams.

The only way the Big East has a shot now is if Nevada can take out Boise State this afternoon. Go Nevada!!