Bowl Analysis -- South Florida (Detailed)

[Joe]

If I follow you Jim, it's all predicated on the BCS standings.

I don't think UL will get an at large invite unless they are in the top 4, which I believe is what the new rule states. Notre Dame is the only one with the "top 8" status.

The Policies Read:

5. If any of the 10 slots remain open after application of provisions 1 through 4, and an at-large team from a conference with an annual automatic berth for its champion is ranked No. 3 in the final BCS Standings, that team will become an automatic qualifier, provided that no at-large team from the same conference qualifies for the national championship game.

6. If any of the 10 slots remain open after application of provisions 1 through 5, and if no team qualifies under paragraph No. 5 and an at-large team from a conference with an annual automatic berth for its champion is ranked No. 4 in the final BCS Standings, that team will become an automatic qualifier provided that no at-large team from the same conference qualifies for the national championship game.

I haven't really heard much about this change in the rule, but wouldn't we need UL in the top 4 to definitly get 2 teams in the BCS?

[Guest]

If I follow you Jim, it's all predicated on the BCS standings.

I don't think UL will get an at large invite unless they are in the top 4, which I believe is what the new rule states. Notre Dame is the only one with the "top 8" status.

The Policies Read:

5. If any of the 10 slots remain open after application of provisions 1 through 4, and an at-large team from a conference with an annual automatic berth for its champion is ranked No. 3 in the final BCS Standings, that team will become an automatic qualifier, provided that no at-large team from the same conference qualifies for the national championship game.

6. If any of the 10 slots remain open after application of provisions 1 through 5, and if no team qualifies under paragraph No. 5 and an at-large team from a conference with an annual automatic berth for its champion is ranked No. 4 in the final BCS Standings, that team will become an automatic qualifier provided that no at-large team from the same conference qualifies for the national championship game.

I haven't really heard much about this change in the rule, but wouldn't we need UL in the top 4 to definitly get 2 teams in the BCS?

First, I was wrong ... UL will be the Big East champions if UL and WVU win out.

No... and it's not a change in the rule -- other than the order of the selection.  The BCS has always had a rule that if the #3 or #4 team was not a conference champion, it gets a bid (only one of them).

Consider this is the selection order... and my "projected" selections (numbers in parenthesis are counting the number of BCS teams ... up to 10):

1. #1 vs #2

  - Big Ten Champion Ohio State (1)

  - SEC Champion Florida (2)

2. The rest of the automatic conference champions

  - Pac 10 Champion USC (3)

  - Big 12 Champion Texas (4)

  - Big East Champion Louisville (5)

  - ACC Champion Georgia Tech (6)

3. Any conference without an automatic bid, whose champion is in the Top 12 or Top 16 and ahead of an automatic conference champion

  - WAC Champion Boise State (7)

4. Notre Dame, if they finish in the Top 8

  - If Notre Dame beats USC, they will likely be 4 or 5; if Notre Dame loses, they will drop out of the top 8 (8)

5. The #3 team, if not a conference champion and all 10 teams are not selected

  - Michigan (9) - if they don't fall to #4 or #5

6. The #4 team, if not a conference champion, the #3 team is a conference champion, and all 10 teams are not selected

  - N/A (see 5 above)  OR  Michigan (9) - if they don't fall to #5

Now, those are the automatic qualifiers.  Only 8 or 9 teams will get automatic bids.

The at large selections will be the rest of the Top 14 teams...

  - West Virginia will probably be the highest ranked team without an automatic slot (10*)

  - Wisconsin can't get a bid because the Big 10 can't get 3 selections (OSU, UM).

  - Notre Dame will be here if they lose to USC (8)

  - Florida could be here if they lose to Arkansas (10*)

  - Arkansas will probably be here if they beat LSU then lose to Florida

  - Auburn will be here as teams ahead of them lose

  - LSU could be here if they beat Arkansas

  - Oklahoma could be here

So, because of the remaining eligible teams for the at-large selection, a 1-loss WVU would be taken ahead of a 2-loss SEC team - IF Florida beats Arkansas.  Florida will be taken ahead of WVU because the Orange Bowl will probably make the selection.

---

Now, if Rutgers beats WVU to win the Big East, substitute Rutgers for Louisville (Criteria 2 above) and Louisville for West Virginia (At Large Criteria above)

[T-Man]

Jimbo would a gator loss to fsu screw things up

[E.T.]

Jimbo would a gator loss to fsu screw things up

I would get a chuckle outta it  8-)

[T-Man]

Well just a quick look at cbssportsline and usatoday.. both have us in b-HAM.. and cincy in Texas.... for me I think our trip all hinges on cincy vs. uconn...   That cincy coach gets my vote for Big East coach of the year!   Come on bearcats beat those huskies!

[Guest]

Jimbo would a gator loss to fsu screw things up

Depends on what you mean by "screw things up".

It probably means that if WVU wins out, they will go to a BCS game.  If Florida then loses to Arkansas, they will have 3 losses and probably not get a BCS bid at that point.

This then significantly increases the chances for USF to go to Texas.

[Joe]

It all means nothing if the BE does not get 2 BCS teams in, which isn't guarenteed. The problem the BE will have is attendance. If it's the Rose Bowl with the open spot because of Michigan and Ohio State rematch, they probably go with the SEC Championship game loser knowing they will probably bring more fans than WVU (who does travel well, but not unbelievably)

[Guest Sprtsfn627]

Question....if it comes down to us and Cincinnati for the Texas Bowl, and Texas selects Cincinnati, won't that force us in to the International Bowl?  I'm almost certain the International Bowl selects first, and with us the only 7 win team left....

[TVBull]

A 6-6  Kansas team CANT go to the Motor City Bowl UNLESS the Bowl has a prvious contract with that league.

You're right.  It was late when I was preparing this post.  I need to correct that.

**** it, Jim! Get on the ball .......!!    8-)

With your changes will the Texas Bowl still be 60%? That would be great and bring me back into the bowl picture ..

The mistakes didn't change where I thought USF would go.  Chances are still the same.

60%?  I'd put it more at 80% right now.   I think it will just come down to everybody being an LSU fan this week and if Arkansas wins then suddenly becoming a Florida fan.  And everybody should probably become a Notre Dame fan too.   And Nevada. :-)

[Guest]

Question....if it comes down to us and Cincinnati for the Texas Bowl, and Texas selects Cincinnati, won't that force us in to the International Bowl?  I'm almost certain the International Bowl selects first, and with us the only 7 win team left....

No, the International and PapaJohns.com Bowl work together - talk to each other and the Big East about the available teams.  I would expect Pitt to go to Toronto and USF to go to Birmingham.