Conference realignment "Rumors" "tweets" "etc"

[macphisto]

_{He's absolutely right in one angle - the other conferences will expand it its financially viable so that no member schools see a reduction in income from the TV deal.}

 

_{For the Big XII, that's the big deal - and also something that could somewhat help schools like USF and UCF out.  FSU is unlikely to be willing to accept a reduced sum to start out ala WVU and TCU.  If Fox gives them more per school to expand to 12 if its USF and UCF AND they have two incoming members who will take 50%, 60%, etc escalating payouts then who the new members are won't matter a ton to the current members.} 

 

_{Problem #1 for ACC exiles is that they will want a full payout from Day 1.  If a title game is worth a lot of money for Fox then they will make it happen - and that may benefit both USF and UCF.  I think FSU would want their new conference to eat at least half the $50M exit fee (if it ends up being that high) and give them the full payout in Year One.  That makes FSU less attractive.  USF and UCF would both gladly take a 50$ payout in the first year.}

[macphisto]

It's really interesting that everyone always says UF would block FSU from SEC membership and i would agree under the old lineups and scenarios. But consider this:

•  
• FSU-UF already play, competitively UF loses nothing by letting FSU in.
• Recruiting wont change.
• Does UF really want the B12 to gain a stronger foothold in FL?
• I think everyone would agree that FSU has a perfect football culture, academic programs and location for the SEC.
• The hype would be huge and FSU might actually help by beating down some of UF's opponents.
• Media rights and Tier 2 and 3 marketing would go through the roof.

 

It would be a bitter pill to swallow, but it might make tons of sense.

 

 

Yes they do.  A loss to FSU would count against their SEC record.  It's known that Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, and South Carolina (probably Texas A&M and Mizzou now too) are together on preventing other schools from their own states into the SEC - Mizzou likely is in it to block any access by Kansas.  Florida could drum up 5 votes at least against FSU joining without voting against FSU themselves.  Wouldn't shock me if LSU would be in the bloc as well.

 

FSU's opportunity to go SEC was when they joined the ACC. 

 

As for FSU going Big XII - it depends on money for the Big XII.  If their money per school declines, they will not invite FSU.  I doubt this would happen BUT FSU and Clemson or whoever they'd come with would demand full payouts from the beginning.  USF and UCF would not - they would go along with the WVU and TCU models.  FSU also has a massive exit fee that has yet to be determined - and I doubt the FSU Board of Trustees will approve a move without a means of paying $50M.  I expect FSU would demand the Big XII cover some of that cost - unlikely.

 

The big financial benefit of Big XII expansion is a championship game.  It's probably worth $50M or more per year to Fox in revenue when you consider ad revenue, sponsorships, etc.  Ultimately, if the current members of the Big XII can get a million more per year by adding USF and UCF then they will do it.  If the payout stays the exact same they also might do it.  If it declines, they will not.

[Quo Vadis]

 

 

 

Furthermore, I believe, if "forced" by the possibility of USF/UCF getting into the B12, naturally, the Noles will pull the trigger and jump ship, costs be damned.

I am not sure why many here think that if the Big 12 said "come or we invite USF/UCF" that this would have a big impact on FSU's thinking. I don't imagine FSU cares if USF/UCF join the Big 12 or not.

 

FSU seems to have the following desires: (1) join the SEC, but that isn't happening. (2) remain in the ACC, but bail to the Big 12 if the ACC collapses. USF and UCF do not impact on any of that.

I think the general consensus, at least from what I've seen elsewhere - and I agree with is that the B12's payout per team is generally accepted to be greater than the ACC's, isn't it?

 

Plus, if the B12 gets a CC game, given the "strength" of the conference compared to the ACC's, potentially I could see FSU on the outside looking in of the NCG.

 

FSU will not want to be leap-frogged in affiliation and payout by two 'lesser' programs in state, right? I absolutely believe if they think USF/UCF is going to get the invite, they will jump, regardless of the 'solidarity' of the ACC.

The Big 12 does make more than the ACC. About $2 million more per team from the media deal, and also the Big 12 will make about an additional $2.5 million more per team thanks to its tie-in with the higher-paying Sugar Bowl compared to the Orange Bowl (under the new playoffs regime beginning next year).

 

Is that enough to cause FSU to jump to the Big 12? So far, it has not been. Or else, the Big 12 doesn't want FSU. But either way, I do not see what USF and UCF have to do with Big 12/FSU thinking. Wish it were so, but ....

[smazza]

 

Is it me, but outside of Texas and Oklahoma, the Big 12 is a pretty average conference. I'm not sure that most of the other programs are all that much better than USF/Cincy/UConn/UCF etc.

It's not just you. 

It doesn't matter. 

 

Perception is everything. 

big 12 is so much better than big east

 

they are in the party big east isnt

 

big 12 is a power and major player in football

 

 

follow the money

 

osc,ksu,baylor,texas tech,isu would dominate the big east

[macphisto]

 

 

 

 

Furthermore, I believe, if "forced" by the possibility of USF/UCF getting into the B12, naturally, the Noles will pull the trigger and jump ship, costs be damned.

I am not sure why many here think that if the Big 12 said "come or we invite USF/UCF" that this would have a big impact on FSU's thinking. I don't imagine FSU cares if USF/UCF join the Big 12 or not.

 

FSU seems to have the following desires: (1) join the SEC, but that isn't happening. (2) remain in the ACC, but bail to the Big 12 if the ACC collapses. USF and UCF do not impact on any of that.

I think the general consensus, at least from what I've seen elsewhere - and I agree with is that the B12's payout per team is generally accepted to be greater than the ACC's, isn't it?

 

Plus, if the B12 gets a CC game, given the "strength" of the conference compared to the ACC's, potentially I could see FSU on the outside looking in of the NCG.

 

FSU will not want to be leap-frogged in affiliation and payout by two 'lesser' programs in state, right? I absolutely believe if they think USF/UCF is going to get the invite, they will jump, regardless of the 'solidarity' of the ACC.

The Big 12 does make more than the ACC. About $2 million more per team from the media deal, and also the Big 12 will make about an additional $2.5 million more per team thanks to its tie-in with the higher-paying Sugar Bowl compared to the Orange Bowl (under the new playoffs regime beginning next year).

 

Is that enough to cause FSU to jump to the Big 12? So far, it has not been. Or else, the Big 12 doesn't want FSU. But either way, I do not see what USF and UCF have to do with Big 12/FSU thinking. Wish it were so, but ....

At $4.5M per year it would take over a decade for FSU to pay the exit fee off the extra money they'd be making from the conference.  Unless some donors cut large checks, I doubt that's so appealing.

 

I think the Big XII would definitely prefer FSU, but if they want to expand to 12 then they likely will have to go to the Big East remnants.  They also waited too long and probably would've preferred Louisville - but that ship has sailed. 

[Quo Vadis]

So nobody seems to believe that the Big "12" will be happy at 10 for the forseeable future?

 

I think they are happy, and  so are FOX and ESPN.  However, should the B1G or SEC raid the ACC, then the Big 12 might be spurred to try and scoop up FSU and Clemson or maybe Miami, and in that case those schools would be amenable. But IMO there are big roadblocks to USF being a component in that kind of movement, either to the Big 12 or ACC.

[Who'sYourData?]

LOL at anyone that thinks the ACC is equal to the Big 12.  Big 12 has more money, for starters.  Okie State is better than any ACC team, and they are third best in the Big 12.  TCU has been better than the anyone in the ACC, and they played in the MW.  Imagine what they will do with Big 12 money.  And let's not forget WVU.

 

ACC will be better in basketball than Big 12, but Big 12 is leaps and bounds better than the ACC in football..

[macphisto]

So nobody seems to believe that the Big "12" will be happy at 10 for the forseeable future?

 

I think they are happy, and  so are FOX and ESPN.  However, should the B1G or SEC raid the ACC, then the Big 12 might be spurred to try and scoop up FSU and Clemson or maybe Miami, and in that case those schools would be amenable. But IMO there are big roadblocks to USF being a component in that kind of movement, either to the Big 12 or ACC.

 

From a financial standpoint they likely are happy, but the big question is if the lack of a title game will hurt them in the calculations of the new BCS.  SEC, ACC, B1G, and PAC-12 all get an extra game with two ranked opponents.  The victor of each gets their resume polished a little bit.

 

The championship game is clearly important to the Big XII since Bowlsy is asking the NCAA to allow it even though they only have ten members. 

 

These are all the bowls currently floating in the air.  Will the NCAA allow a ten team conference to have a championship game?  If not, will not having a title game hurt the chances of a Big XII team playing in the four team playoff?  Will adding the extra two teams cost the Big XII members any money?  Would FSU join and how much will it cost them to exit their conference (this is a factor because the exit fee is enormous if it holds - BE leftovers probably have to pay $15M to exit and will be receiving an influx of TV money in return; there's more incentive for a team like USF and UCF to move than for FSU)? 

 

If Fox is willing to ensure that the Big XII members lose zero dollars then expansion is a no brainer IF the NCAA does not allow them a title game anyways. 

 

I don't think FSU has the financial incentive to move, not to the Big XII.  B1G?  Sure, but unless they get into the AAU it will not happen.  SEC?  Again, sure, but doubtful. 

 

I also think the B1G would be interested in expanding to Florida, but they are academic snobs.  Nebraska was at least in the AAU at one point.  I doubt they sneak another one in.  If FSU can get in then the B1G may expand south with GT and FSU.

 

Yet I doubt anyone in the ACC moves.  I'm not sure the SEC wants to expand again.  The B1G would, but I'd suspect they'd look to snag Duke and UNC to help knock their basketball out of the park (not to mention academics). 

 

If the BXII is told outright that they cannot have a title game then who knows?  I do think they have seriously looked at USF and UCF as alternatives to FSU.  They could also look at Cincinnati and one of USF/UCF to expand to Ohio and Florida, though a twofer in Florida is probably better than trying to get into Ohio.  USF and UCF can gain inroads, especially with their urban locations and large student populations.  I'm originally from Ohio and the rest of the state thinks that Cincinnati is part of Kentucky.  The people up in Cleveland and Columbus won't take much interest.

 

The student populations at USF and UCF plus access to Florida recruits makes them both able to surpass FSU over the next decade plus.  UCF at 60,000 students has got to be appealing.   

[bull-71]

OK thought...Does being the whipping boy with UCF in  the immediate future make any sense....on a big 12 invite..    The TV market..Rivalry...is in place   ....

 

Are we more likely to admitted to the Big 12 if we do not represent a serious threat of being conference champs or ruin Oklahoma's chance at a NC...

[Reliable Source]

OK thought...Does being the whipping boy with UCF in  the immediate future make any sense....on a big 12 invite..    The TV market..Rivalry...is in place   ....

 

Are we more likely to admitted to the Big 12 if we do not represent a serious threat of being conference champs or ruin Oklahoma's chance at a NC...

Could you translate that please?