The loss to UT Arlington hurt their bracket standings and while they are winning, the margins are not going to draw anyones attention
If they can win the conference tournament and go into the NCAAs with some momentum, they can probably make the sweet 16 or beyond (especially if they pull a 7 or 6 seed)
Lose the conference tournament and we are probably an 8/9, with low probably of getting past whatever 1 seed we face.
Interestingly, this bracket prediction has both UCF and USF as 9s, with neither listed as the automatic qualifier - someone has to win the conference tournament, right?