I'm don't know if the package deal is our best chance, but if, say, the Big12 had to choose between us or them, we might not like the outcome of that. Whether it's realistic or not, the package deal thing works for me, and seems to be a possibility, given that we were two of the final eight or so teams considered for B12 expansion.
As far as them catastrophically failing, I'm not sure they can possibly fail enough on the field before the next round of expansion to remove them from strong consideration. They have a BCS bowl win over Baylor, an NY6 bowl win over Auburn, and several conference championships...There would have to be some kind of SMU-type scandal to really hurt them. FAU beating them this weekend does nothing whatsoever to hurt their P5 expansion chances. All that would do is hurt our SOS.