Is it possible to go up another notch in any of the polls?

[usfdba]

With a strategic loss or two by somebody, or SOS factor, after this weekend's festivities?

What's the likelihood of that?

Not that it really matters at this point...

[Mama_Bull]

It may be a possibility, however, Jim or one of the other stat gurus would be able to give you the breakdown of what it would take.  I believe that we could and that is a big COULD move up to 18.

[Guest]

Brybull1970 posted the possibilities on another thread...

These are the teams ranked ahead of us that still have a game left:

#9 Oklahoma (10-2) vs. #1 Missouri (11-1)

Pittsburgh (4-7) at #2 West Virginia (11-1)

#11 Boston College (10-2) vs. #6 Virginia Tech (10-2)

#14 Tennessee (9-3) vs. #7 LSU (10-2)

UCLA (6-5) at #8 USC (9-2)

Washington (4-8) at #12 Hawaii (11-0)

Arizona (5-6) at #13 Arizona State (9-2)

Oregon State (7-4) at #17 Oregon (8-3)

#19 BYU (9-2) at San Diego State (4-7)

Realistically, we would need three of the following to lose in order to have a chance to get to #18: BYU, Oregon, Tennessee, Arizona State and Hawaii. In addition we would need UCF and FAU to win to imporve our SOS.

[TailGateBull08]

So if we hit #18, we do still have a legit shot at the Orange Bowl dont we?  Especially if Hawaii loses to Washington...

We'd probably need Boston College to lose big, and fall far enough to knock them out...Then the Orange would be picking between Clemson and USF...

[crambone]

No, we'd have to be ranked above #14 to get into a BCS bowl.

[Guest]

So if we hit #18, we do still have a legit shot at the Orange Bowl dont we?  Especially if Hawaii loses to Washington...

We'd probably need Boston College to lose big, and fall far enough to knock them out...Then the Orange would be picking between Clemson and USF...

No. No chance. Mostly because USF will probably accept the Sun Bowl bid today, rendering this discussion moot.

But let's chase this dragon a bit...

1) The new "Top 18" clause only kicks in if there are not enough eligible teams in the Top 14 (which would mean the Top 14 would have to be full of SEC, Pac 10 and Big 12 teams).

2) Examine the options.  6 Conference winners (WVU, Ohio State, VT-BC winner, Mizzou-OU winner, LSU-Tenn winner, and either USC, ASU or UCLA) leaves 4 at large slots.  Kansas gets one. Georgia gets one.  If Hawaii finishes Top 12 they get one.  If Hawaii loses but UCLA wins the Pac 10, then BYU would probably get a BCS bid (Top 16 and ahead of UCLA).  That leaves one open for sure, maybe two.

3) Now the current Top 14 teams who are guaranteed to be out of the BCS are the VT-BC loser, the Mizzou-OU loser, LSU-Tenn loser,  as well as Florida.  Ten teams are still in the hunt for 10 slots.

4) Okay. Let's say BC loses to VT in a BIG way.  USC wins but Arizona State loses big.  LSU wins convincingly. Oregon State beats Oregon.  That would drop the #11, #13, #14, and #17 teams down.  It would help if Washington beat Hawaii and San Diego State beat BYU (dropping the #12 and #19 teams).  The 11 - 14 slots would be "open" for teams moving up: Illinois, Clemson, Wisconsin, Texas, and USF.  None of these teams have games this weekend, so if the order holds true USF could be no better than 15th... so UCF and FAU winning their conferences would help our computer rankings, and the teams that lose are generally ahead of USF in the computers, so USF could jump a bit more in the BCS.

(NOTE: Losses in the last week of the season usually don't drop teams very far.  There is very little chance that 6 teams ahead of USF who lose would also drop below USF... and not having a game this weekend does not help at all.)

6)  If all this happens and USF is able to get into the Top 14, then the last two slots could go to Illinois or Wisconsin, Clemson, or USF.  Not sure that USF would be a strong enough draw for those last positions.

So, no. No chance.

For reference, here is the current BCS Standings:

1. Missouri 11-1

2. West Virginia 10-1

3. Ohio State 11-1

4. Georgia 10-2

5. Kansas 11-1

6. Virginia Tech 10-2

7. LSU 10-2

8. USC 9-2

9. Oklahoma 10-2

10. Florida 9-3

11. Boston College 10-2

12. Hawaii 11-0

13. Arizona State 9-2

14. Tennessee 9-3

15. Illinois 9-3

16. Clemson 9-3

17. Oregon 8-3

18. Wisconsin 9-3

19. BYU 9-2

20. Texas 9-3

21. South Florida 9-3

22. Virginia 9-3

23. Cincinnati 9-3

24. Auburn 8-4

25. Boise State 10-2

[usfdba]

Great...Thanks Jim.

I'm sure a WV win would help the SOS too  

Would love to see us in the Top 25 in all polls (bull**** Coaches poll too), and top 20 in BCS.

Here's to an interesting (and the last) weekend of regular football....

[Guest]

Great...Thanks Jim.

I'm sure a WV win would help the SOS too 

Would love to see us in the Top 25 in all polls (bull**** Coaches poll too), and top 20 in BCS.

Here's to an interesting (and the last) weekend of regular football....

WVU win and Pitt loss won't have that much of an effect on our computer rankings... and technically none on the SOS.

[BrahmanBulliever]

I suppose I'm still interested in seeing how the coach's and harris polls show next week as they seem to be slow to recognize changes and appear to have cincinatti artificially high over USF, among a few other inconsistencies. May be wrong but I would think that USF could be getting a few more straggler votes next week.

[Rocky Style]

Unless UCF can rig that voting too.