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Major Offensive Errors


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Apparently Offensive Genius Ralph Friedgen has calculated a formula that pretty much tells if a team will lose or win depending on what he calls, Major Offensive Errors, or MOE.  Here is how to calculate.  Add the number of Sacks, Offensive Penalties, Fumbles Lost, Interceptions, and Dropped Passes.  Divide the number of plays into the MOE total to get a percentage.  If the percentage is under 12%, teams have a 95% chance of winning.

I used this formula just now with what I recall from the UConn game.  I counted 3 Sacks, 6 Offensive Penalties, 0 Fumbles, 2 Picks, and 2 Drops.  USF's MOE value was 16% by my calculation.  I'll keep track of this for the Cincinnati game too. 

Anyone else ever heard of this formula?

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ESPN went over it like 6-8 years ago for a Maryland-FSU game.

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