Bowl Analysis -- South Florida -- Updated

[Jim Johnson]

Here are a few of the most-likely scenarios needed for USF to get a bowl bid (may be others not included herein).

1. Beat Syracuse to get to 7 wins on the season, hope Notre Dame or the WVU/UL loser gets a BCS bid.

> NCAA bylaws state that a 7-5 USF team would get the nod over a 6-6 Cincinnati team for a Big East Bowl.  If neither Notre Dame nor the WVU/UL loser do not get a BCS bid, there will be at least one more eligible team than slots available.

2. Lose to Syracuse and finish 6-6, hope Cincinnati loses out, hope Notre Dame or the WVU/UL loser gets a BCS bid.

> This would mean there are just enough teams for the Big East slots.  If neither Notre Dame nor the WVU/UL loser do not get a BCS bid, there will be one more eligible team than slots available; and since USF would be the only 6-6 team, the NCAA bylaws state that the other Big East teams must be selected before USF.

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To get to the ...

Bowl Championship Series (Jan 2-4 - Glendale, New Orleans, Miami) -- Virtually impossible.  USF would need to win out, need Rutgers to lose 3 games, need U of L to lose another game besides USF, and then hope USF ends up ranked higher than WVU nd U of L - as the highest ranked team in a three-way split is the Big East champion.

Gator Bowl (Jan 1 - Jacksonville, FL) -- Highly unlikely.  USF would need to win out, need Rutgers to lose 3 games, and both need U of L and WVU to lose another game besides USF.  Even then, it is possible that WVU or U of L would be more attractive than USF -- if only because USF would not sell as many tickets as WVU or U of L.

Texas Bowl (Dec 28 - Houston, TX) -- Possible.  Texas Bowl has already sold 31,000 seats and that the Big East opponent will be a Big 12 team -- how a team travels might not be as important.  If USF wins 2 of the last 3 games, and Rutgers loses a few games, an 8-4 USF team might be just as attractive as a 9-3 Rutgers team.  If Rutgers, U of L, and WVU all get to 10 or 11 wins, then USF probably won't be here.

International Bowl (Jan 6 - Toronto, ON) -- Bowl organizers expect to sell about 25,000 tickets to the two schools ... so it would appear that a northern team such as Pittsburgh or Rutgers might be more attractive to match up against the MAC.  (Note: New travel restrictions to Canada by air take effect two days later, so if you fly to Toronto for the game - and return on the 8th - you may need a passport.)

Birmingham Bowl (Dec 23 - Birmingham, AL) -- This seems to be the most likely scenario for the Bulls.  Because Cincinnati still has U Conn to play, the Bearcats could be 6-6 at the end of the year.  To guarantee a spot in this bowl, USF needs to beat Syracuse to get to 7 wins.

If I were a betting man, I would say Birmingham is where USF will go.

FYI:

Link to Greater Birmingham Convention & Visitors Bureau

(Birmingham is 30 miles closer to Tampa than Charlotte, NC)

[outrunner]

I would just like to add two footnotes.

1) Gator Bowl has the option of taking Big East/ Big XII/ Notre Dame; if the Gator Bowl takes a Big XII team, then the Sun Bowl (El Paso, TX) will take a team from the Big East.

2) Several conferences may not have enough teams qualify to fill out their contractual obligations, at which point their slot is open to anyone.

[Guest]

I would just like to add two footnotes.

1) Gator Bowl has the option of taking Big East/ Big XII/ Notre Dame; if the Gator Bowl takes a Big XII team, then the Sun Bowl (El Paso, TX) will take a team from the Big East.

2) Several conferences may not have enough teams qualify to fill out their contractual obligations, at which point their slot is open to anyone.

The Gator Bowl will gladly take WVU or U of L... they just wanted the option.  The Big 12 is down this year, too.

If USF doesn't get a Big East bowl, don't expect the others.

The full Bowl Analysis thread will be posted shortly.

[South_Florida_Flip]

Gator Bowl would be glad to take Rutgers as well because they will travel real well for a Bowl game in FL.

[outrunner]

I would just like to add two footnotes.

1) Gator Bowl has the option of taking Big East/ Big XII/ Notre Dame; if the Gator Bowl takes a Big XII team, then the Sun Bowl (El Paso, TX) will take a team from the Big East.

2) Several conferences may not have enough teams qualify to fill out their contractual obligations, at which point their slot is open to anyone.

The Gator Bowl will gladly take WVU or U of L... they just wanted the option.  The Big 12 is down this year, too.

If USF doesn't get a Big East bowl, don't expect the others.

The full Bowl Analysis thread will be posted shortly.

I know they would take UL or WV first, but I was just throwing that out there.

[windbane]

cincy could beat rutgers or WVU

[windbane]

rutgers loses to UL, cincy, WVU or syracuse (3 of those)

UL loses to USF, pitt

WVU loses to USF, cincy

cincy loses to UConn (or rutgers beats cincy and then loses to syracuse...either way).

we win out and have tie-breaker against UL (no 3-way tie).

BCS.  heh.

[smazza]

bowl game no matter where is great

[LW]

(Note: New travel restrictions to Canada by air take effect two days later, so if you fly to Toronto for the game - and return on the 8th - you may need a passport.)

As someone who travels internationally often, I can assure you that you WILL need a passport if you come home on the 8th.

http://travel.state.gov/travel/cbpmc/cbpmc_2223.html

[Bullsayer]

I'm still sticking with the International Bowl as my projection. These Northern schools and their fan bases will be vying for a Southern Bowl. They look at Birmingham as comparatively warm in January. The Intenational Bowl is the new kid on the block (Birmingham in one way or another has been in the Bowl business for years) so Toronto will get the leftovers. Even though Toronto is a classy city, it's still January and noboby gets excited about a cold weather vacation (without skiing). If we get a Bowl, we are destined to the Cold Weather Bowl. At least it's an indoor stadium. I guess a Bowl is a Bowl. Nice to get one two years in a row. Don't forget your Passports just in case you get snowed in on the 7th and can't leave until the 8th.