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The PAC10 is a joke!!!!

Bull Matrix

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smazza Toro Magnifico

smazza

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Posted

computer is nonbiased

the numbers dont lie

from top  to bottom pac 10 is the best

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smazza Toro Magnifico

smazza

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Posted

sagrin

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08/25/06- Updated 12:07 PM

 

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Jeff Sagarin NCAA football ratings

• Sagarin ratings index

All Contents Copyright © 2006 Jeff Sagarintm. All rights reserved.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL thru results of  SEPTEMBER 23 SATURDAY

RATING and PREDICTOR are bayesian and the ELO-CHESS is also BAYESIAN.

this output has two parts:   (1) CONFERENCE AVERAGES

                                (listed top-to-bottom & alphabetically)

                            (2) teams listed by CONFERENCE

                                (listed in order within conferences)

The SCHEDULE ratings represent the average schedule difficulty faced

by each team in the games that it's played so far.  The schedule

difficulty of a given game takes into account the rating of the

opponent and the location of the game.

In COLLEGE FOOTBALL the W-L records include ALL games, but ONLY

games between the 241 TEAMS RATED here are used for RATING and SCHEDULE

STRENGTH computations.

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of

the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL  3  points for the home

team.  Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 92 would be

favored by  5  points over a VISITING team having a rating of 90.

Or a VISITING team with a rating of 89 would be favored by  7  points

over a HOME team having a rating of 79.

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.

     In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for

     illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.

The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of

schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these

rating's CURRENT top 10 and CURRENT top 30 respectively.

For the first few weeks of the season, the starting ratings have weight

in the process(BAYESIAN), but once the teams are all CONNECTED, then

the starting ratings are no longer used and all teams are started equal

and the ELO-CHESS is then done in an UNBIASED manner from that point on.

RATING and PREDICTOR are now bayesian and the ELO-CHESS is also bayesian.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In ELO-CHESS, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence,

which makes it very "politically correct".  However it is less accurate in its predictions for

upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS, in which the score margin is the only thing that matters.

PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is the best single PREDICTOR

of future games.  The ELO-CHESS will be utilized by the Bowl Championship Series(BCS).

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The overall RATING is a synthesis of the two diametrical opposites, ELO-CHESS and PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR).

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conference Rankings

There are two group ratings, the "central mean" and the

"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean")

The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)

in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go

away from the middle in either direction, up or down.

This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated

much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group.  The

"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally

no matter where they are relative to the middle.

Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.

 4-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-2-1

 5-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-2-1

 6-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-3-2-1

 7-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-3-2-1

 8-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1

 9-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1

10-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1

11-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1

12-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1

13-team group ___ the weights are   1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1

This is in a sense the continuous version of the discrete "tri-mean".

     CONFERENCE          CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS

  1  PAC-10              (A) =  78.37      78.66  (  1)     10

  2  BIG TEN             (A) =  77.83      77.77  (  2)     11

  3  SOUTHEASTERN        (A) =  76.93      76.87  (  3)     12

  4  BIG 12              (A) =  76.86      76.55  (  4)     12

  5  ATLANTIC COAST      (A) =  75.42      74.95  (  6)     12

  6  BIG EAST            (A) =  75.37      76.01  (  5)      8

  7  I-A INDEPENDENTS    (A) =  71.88      72.76  (  7)      3

  8  MOUNTAIN WEST       (A) =  70.81      71.18  (  8)      9

  9  CONFERENCE USA      (A) =  65.02      65.81  (  9)     12

 10  WESTERN ATHLETIC    (A) =  64.78      65.22  ( 10)      9

 11  MID-AMERICAN        (A) =  62.67      62.05  ( 11)     13

 12  GREAT WEST          (AA)=  60.61      59.98  ( 12)      5

 13  GATEWAY             (AA)=  59.62      58.31  ( 13)      8

 14  ATLANTIC 10         (AA)=  57.88      58.28  ( 14)     12

 15  SUN BELT            (A) =  56.24      56.25  ( 16)      8

 16  BIG SKY             (AA)=  55.17      56.40  ( 15)      9

 17  SOUTHERN            (AA)=  51.57      52.44  ( 17)      8

 18  IVY LEAGUE          (AA)=  49.17      49.49  ( 18)      8

 19  SOUTHLAND           (AA)=  48.83      48.73  ( 19)      7

 20  PATRIOT LEAGUE      (AA)=  46.04      45.69  ( 20)      7

 21  OHIO VALLEY         (AA)=  45.30      45.53  ( 21)      9

 22  MID-EASTERN         (AA)=  39.74      39.92  ( 22)      9

 23  BIG SOUTH           (AA)=  39.67      39.28  ( 24)      5

 24  SOUTHWESTERN        (AA)=  39.29      39.53  ( 23)     10

 25  NORTHEAST           (AA)=  34.84      34.86  ( 25)      8

 26  I-AA INDEPENDENTS   (AA)=  32.05      32.32  ( 26)      4

 27  PIONEER             (AA)=  29.74      30.20  ( 27)      8

 28  METRO ATLANTIC      (AA)=  22.89      23.52  ( 28)      5

 29  ***UNRATED***       (**)= -90.00     -90.00  ( 29)      1

     CONFERENCE          CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS

  5  ATLANTIC COAST      (A) =  75.42      74.95  (  6)     12

  6  BIG EAST            (A) =  75.37      76.01  (  5)      8

  2  BIG TEN             (A) =  77.83      77.77  (  2)     11

  4  BIG 12              (A) =  76.86      76.55  (  4)     12

  9  CONFERENCE USA      (A) =  65.02      65.81  (  9)     12

 11  MID-AMERICAN        (A) =  62.67      62.05  ( 11)     13

  8  MOUNTAIN WEST       (A) =  70.81      71.18  (  8)      9

  1  PAC-10              (A) =  78.37      78.66  (  1)     10

  3  SOUTHEASTERN        (A) =  76.93      76.87  (  3)     12

 15  SUN BELT            (A) =  56.24      56.25  ( 16)      8

 10  WESTERN ATHLETIC    (A) =  64.78      65.22  ( 10)      9

  7  I-A INDEPENDENTS    (A) =  71.88      72.76  (  7)      3

 14  ATLANTIC 10         (AA)=  57.88      58.28  ( 14)     12

 16  BIG SKY             (AA)=  55.17      56.40  ( 15)      9

 23  BIG SOUTH           (AA)=  39.67      39.28  ( 24)      5

 13  GATEWAY             (AA)=  59.62      58.31  ( 13)      8

 12  GREAT WEST          (AA)=  60.61      59.98  ( 12)      5

 18  IVY LEAGUE          (AA)=  49.17      49.49  ( 18)      8

 28  METRO ATLANTIC      (AA)=  22.89      23.52  ( 28)      5

 22  MID-EASTERN         (AA)=  39.74      39.92  ( 22)      9

 25  NORTHEAST           (AA)=  34.84      34.86  ( 25)      8

 21  OHIO VALLEY         (AA)=  45.30      45.53  ( 21)      9

 20  PATRIOT LEAGUE      (AA)=  46.04      45.69  ( 20)      7

 27  PIONEER             (AA)=  29.74      30.20  ( 27)      8

 17  SOUTHERN            (AA)=  51.57      52.44  ( 17)      8

 19  SOUTHLAND           (AA)=  48.83      48.73  ( 19)      7

 24  SOUTHWESTERN        (AA)=  39.29      39.53  ( 23)     10

 26  I-AA INDEPENDENTS   (AA)=  32.05      32.32  ( 26)      4

 29  ***UNRATED***       (**)= -90.00     -90.00  ( 29)      1

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Conference

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

  5  ATLANTIC COAST      (A) =  75.42      74.95  (  6)   TEAMS= 12

College Football 2006 thru September 23 Saturday                      the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here

HOME ADVANTAGE=  3.57           RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 |  ELO_CHESS   |  PREDICTOR  

 11  Virginia Tech        A  =  86.21    4   0   60.83( 127)    0   0  |    0   0  |   84.37   14 |   87.72    9

 18  Clemson              A  =  84.13    3   1   69.93(  54)    0   0  |    1   1  |   81.48   23 |   86.78   11

 24  Boston College       A  =  80.84    3   1   75.23(  19)    0   0  |    1   0  |   82.73   21 |   78.58   32

 25  Florida State        A  =  80.58    3   1   68.38(  68)    0   0  |    0   1  |   78.93   31 |   81.78   22

 27  Wake Forest          A  =  79.62    4   0   67.38(  79)    0   0  |    0   0  |   83.64   17 |   75.88   40

 41  Miami-Florida        A  =  75.71    1   2   69.76(  57)    0   1  |    0   2  |   72.50   57 |   78.90   30

 46  Georgia Tech         A  =  74.98    3   1   59.41( 137)    0   0  |    0   1  |   75.04   47 |   74.29   48

 53  NC State             A  =  73.88    2   2   72.05(  39)    0   0  |    1   0  |   76.45   42 |   70.99   58

 65  Maryland             A  =  70.62    3   1   61.24( 122)    0   0  |    0   1  |   72.95   54 |   67.88   78

 79  Virginia             A  =  67.25    1   3   71.36(  43)    0   0  |    0   0  |   67.86   75 |   66.02   92

 80  North Carolina       A  =  67.12    1   3   75.86(  13)    0   0  |    0   2  |   69.09   69 |   64.64  100

128  Duke                 A  =  58.43    0   3   78.29(   6)    0   0  |    0   2  |   55.99  137 |   60.25  115

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

  6  BIG EAST            (A) =  75.37      76.01  (  5)   TEAMS=  8

College Football 2006 thru September 23 Saturday                      the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here

HOME ADVANTAGE=  3.57           RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 |  ELO_CHESS   |  PREDICTOR  

  4  Louisville           A  =  90.33    4   0   67.90(  73)    0   0  |    0   0  |   87.61    9 |   93.31    3

 15  West Virginia        A  =  84.78    4   0   63.18( 108)    0   0  |    0   0  |   83.21   18 |   85.92   13

 37  Rutgers              A  =  76.44    4   0   55.18( 156)    0   0  |    0   0  |   77.69   35 |   74.66   46

 42  Pittsburgh           A  =  75.60    3   1   61.45( 121)    0   0  |    0   0  |   72.73   55 |   78.31   33

 51  Connecticut          A  =  74.16    2   1   62.61( 112)    0   0  |    0   1  |   73.47   51 |   74.23   49

 58  Syracuse             A  =  71.98    2   2   71.20(  45)    0   0  |    0   2  |   71.65   61 |   71.69   53

 72  South Florida        A  =  68.46    3   1   59.09( 140)    0   0  |    0   0  |   67.43   79 |   68.89   73

 88  Cincinnati           A  =  66.36    1   3   76.32(  10)    0   1  |    0   2  |   62.36  105 |   70.15   62

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

  2  BIG TEN             (A) =  77.83      77.77  (  2)   TEAMS= 11

College Football 2006 thru September 23 Saturday                      the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here

HOME ADVANTAGE=  3.57           RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 |  ELO_CHESS   |  PREDICTOR  

  2  Ohio State           A  =  94.87    4   0   73.82(  25)    1   0  |    2   0  |   95.60    3 |   93.59    2

  5  Michigan             A  =  89.74    4   0   72.62(  34)    0   0  |    1   0  |   96.12    2 |   85.34   15

 16  Iowa                 A  =  84.72    4   0   70.21(  49)    0   0  |    0   0  |   87.75    8 |   81.73   23

 23  Penn State           A  =  81.17    2   2   79.11(   4)    0   1  |    0   2  |   82.76   20 |   79.14   28

 28  Minnesota            A  =  79.02    2   2   69.50(  61)    0   0  |    0   1  |   75.08   46 |   83.58   19

 31  Wisconsin            A  =  78.61    3   1   67.42(  78)    0   1  |    0   1  |   79.94   26 |   76.77   36

 33  Michigan State       A  =  77.82    3   1   65.44(  91)    0   0  |    0   1  |   78.63   32 |   76.44   38

 50  Purdue               A  =  74.37    4   0   55.25( 154)    0   0  |    1   0  |   79.82   27 |   69.53   68

 83  Indiana              A  =  67.02    2   2   66.48(  85)    0   0  |    0   0  |   67.32   80 |   66.10   91

 89  Northwestern         A  =  66.31    2   2   63.45( 105)    0   0  |    0   0  |   66.04   88 |   65.95   93

111  Illinois             A  =  61.78    1   3   68.99(  63)    0   0  |    0   1  |   62.11  108 |   60.82  113

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

  4  BIG 12              (A) =  76.86      76.55  (  4)   TEAMS= 12

College Football 2006 thru September 23 Saturday                      the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here

HOME ADVANTAGE=  3.57           RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 |  ELO_CHESS   |  PREDICTOR  

  7  Texas                A  =  89.36    3   1   70.01(  53)    0   1  |    0   1  |   87.54   10 |   90.87    4

  9  Oklahoma             A  =  86.81    3   1   69.44(  62)    0   1  |    0   1  |   86.91   11 |   86.09   12

 21  Texas Tech           A  =  81.89    3   1   64.76(  96)    0   0  |    0   1  |   79.25   28 |   84.47   16

 22  Nebraska             A  =  81.80    3   1   66.15(  89)    0   1  |    0   1  |   77.70   34 |   86.92   10

 26  Missouri             A  =  80.54    4   0   59.42( 136)    0   0  |    0   0  |   80.93   25 |   79.53   27

 36  Texas A&M            A  =  76.97    4   0   53.03( 162)    0   0  |    0   0  |   76.67   40 |   76.64   37

 40  Kansas State         A  =  75.82    3   1   63.99( 101)    0   1  |    0   1  |   76.16   43 |   74.85   44

 48  Iowa State           A  =  74.84    2   2   77.38(   7)    0   1  |    0   2  |   75.69   45 |   73.41   51

 54  Oklahoma State       A  =  73.71    3   1   55.64( 153)    0   0  |    0   0  |   72.14   58 |   74.75   45

 63  Kansas               A  =  70.77    3   1   59.19( 138)    0   0  |    0   0  |

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sdgukhsdgl Toro Magnifico

sdgukhsdgl

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Posted

lost at home to UF by 1 point on a 4th quarter comeback

RAPED Cal at home, what was it 35-0 going into the 4th??

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sdgukhsdgl

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cal,oregon,asu for starters

hey tennessee boy-vols lost at home to gators

Cal? see UT game

Oregon? Still have not proved anything, win over weak OU team with refs help is not impressive

ASU just got destroyed by Cal, see above

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smazza

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Posted
cal,oregon,asu for starters

hey tennessee boy-vols lost at home to gators

Cal? see UT game

Oregon? Still have not proved anything, win over weak OU team with refs help is not impressive

ASU just got destroyed by Cal, see above

the computer doesnt lie

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smazza Toro Magnifico

smazza

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SEC has FOUR teams in the top 10 of the rankings, pac-10 has one

the other 6 sec teams must suck

see computer rankings

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