BCS Preview - Big East

[TyBull]

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Football

BCS Preview - Big East

By Jeff Amey

For the second leg of our trip around the BCS conferences, we're going to look at the red-headed stepchild of major conferences, the Big East. Louisville came into the 2005 season as the favorite and a National Championship contender as well due to their ridiculously easy schedule, but it was West Virginia that stole the show, highlighted by a 38-35 upset of Georgia in the Sugar Bowl to end the season.

West Virginia's win was much bigger than just that one game, however. Not only did it lend a little bit of legitimacy to the conference after the departure of Miami, Virginia Tech, and Boston College to the ACC, but it also helped cement the Big East's automatic BCS berth for the forseeable future as well as probably played at least a small role in the expansion of the BCS to five games this fall.

Before I give you my predictions for the order of finish in the Big East this season, let's take a look at the media consensus of how they'll end up.

Big East

1) West Virginia

2) Louisville

3) Pittsburgh

4) Rutgers

5) South Florida

6) Connecticut

7) Cincinnati

8) Syracuse

West Virginia was the projected winner of the Big East in nearly every publication this summer. Now let's take a look at my predictions and a brief synopsis of the teams.

1) Louisville Cardinals

Last Season: 9-3 (5-2) 2nd Big East

Returning Starters: 19 (8 off, 9 def, K,P)

Toughest Game: Nov. 2 vs. West Virginia

Out of conference schedule: vs. Kentucky, vs. Miami, at Kansas State

Louisville is coming off of a season filled with pre-season hype and high expectations. While those expectations were dashed in a early season blowout loss to South Florida, the Cardinals did finish the season strongly and came within two points of replacing West Virginia as Georgia's opponent in the Sugar Bowl last season. QB Brian Brohm is coming back from a torn ACL, and a lot of Louisville's success will hinge on how well he has recovered. If he regains his form from last season, the majority of his weapons from last season return around him and the Cardinals' offense will be explosive. The Cardinals seem to be overlooked heading into this season due to West Virginia's upset of Georgia, but actually seem to be the more complete and veteran team in 2006. Louisville gets the Mountaineers at home on November 2nd, which is the main reason I pick Louisville to win the conference.

2) West Virginia Mountaineers

Last Season: 11-1 (7-0) 1st Big East

Returning Starters: 14 (8 off, 5 def, K)

Toughest Game: Nov. 2 at Louisville

Out of conference schedule: vs. Maryland, at Mississippi State

The Mountaineers are going to run for a lot of yards and put up a lot of points this season. QB Pat White and HB Steve Slaton, both sophemores, lead a high powered rushing attack out of spread formations. The problem for West Virginia might be on defense, where the Mountaineers lose most of their secondary. West Virginia should be able to outscore most of their opponents this season, but might have some trouble against teams with good passing attacks, mainly Louisville. Despite picking them second in the Big East, the Mountaineers should still win at least 10 games and possibly be a second representative in the BCS for the Big East at the end of the year.

3) Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Last Season: 7-5 (4-3) Tied 3rd Big East

Returning Starters: 16 (7 off, 7 def, K,P)

Toughest Game: Dec. 2 at West Virginia

Out of conference schedule: at North Carolina, vs. Illinois

It has taken him awhile, but Coach Greg Schiano has finally started building something at Rutgers. Last season, the Scarlet Knights made their first bowl appearance since 1978 in a 45-40 loss to Arizona State in the Insight Bowl. The Knights do lose QB Ryan Hart going into this season, but return a solid core of players on both sides of the ball to keep the momentum going, centering around versatile FB Brian Leonard. Rutger's season starts off with six very winnable games; a 5-1 or 6-0 start would virtually assure them a return trip to the post-season and could make them a factor in the conference race.

4) Pittsburgh Panthers

Last Season: 5-6 (4-3) Tied 3rd Big East

Returning Starters: 13 (6 off, 6 def, P)

Toughest Games: Nov. 16 vs. West Virginia and Nov. 25 vs. Louisville

Out of conference schedule: vs. Virginia, vs. Michigan State

Coach Dave Wannstedt's return to Pittsburgh didn't go as well as he'd hoped in his first season, but the pieces are falling into place for a return to prominence. The Panthers will probably have to suffer through at least one more mediocre season to get there, however, and 2006 will be it. Pittsburgh returns most of their offensive line and QB Tyler Palko, but the talent pool around him is young and inexperienced. The Panther defense has some playmakers, but has been weak on the defensive front for several seasons and don't look to be any better there this year. A minor bowl is possible for the Panthers, but a run at the conference title looks to be a year or two away.

5) Connecticut Huskies

Last Season: 5-6 (2-5) Tied 6th Big East

Returning Starters: 16 (7 off, 7 def, K,P)

Toughest Game: Dec. 2 at Louisville

Out of conference schedule: vs. Wake Forest, at Indiana

Injuries, especially at the quarterback postion, hindered the Huskies last season and kept the Huskies from living up to the mild expectations UConn fans had heading into the 2005 season. The schedule, especially out of conference, is favorable, and a bowl bid is possible, but the Huskies will probably finish in the bottom half of the Big East again this season.

6) South Florida Bulls

Last Season: 6-6 (4-3) Tied 3rd Big East

Returning Starters: 14 (7 off, 7 def)

Toughest Game: Nov. 18 at Louisville

Out of conference schedule: at Kansas, at North Carolina

The Bulls pulled off some big surprises in the Big East race last season, blowing out conference favorite Louisville 45-14 and remaining a player in the conference race until deep into November. Expect things to be a little more difficult for the Bulls this season. The Bulls travel to both West Virginia and Louisville and have two more away games against BCS competition. Still, South Florida has the potential to hang with any team they play due to their athleticism, and could pull off another big upset somewhere down the road.

7) Syracuse Orange

Last Season: 1-10 (0-7) 8th Big East

Returning Starters: 12 (6 off, 4 def, K,P)

Toughest Game: Oct. 14 at West Virginia

Out of conference schedule: at Wake Forest, vs. Iowa, at Illinois

The Orange have fallen a long way from the Donovan McNabb years. Last year, Syracuse struggled to move the ball, put points on the board, complete passes, and just about anything else associated with offense. There is nowhere to go but up for the Orange this season. Nothing is significantly different about Syracuse this season, but things have to be better in the second year of a new system, don't they?

8) Cincinnati Bearcats

Last Season: 4-7 (2-5) Tied 6th Big East

Returning Starters: 18 (7 off, 10 def, K)

Toughest Game: Sept.16 at Ohio State

The Bearcats will be a more experienced group this season, especially on defense, but that won't help much against a schedule that includes road trips to Ohio State, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, and Louisville. With that in mind, a losing record is probable and a 10 loss season is not out of the question. 2007 looks to be a much more promising season for Cincinnati.

Conference Outlook

The Big East was lucky to hang onto its automatic BCS spot after the defection of Miami, Virginia Tech, and Boston College, but it looks as if the conference is heading in the right direction towards respectability. West Virginia and Louisville look to become BCS fixtures, while teams like Rutgers, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, and South Florida are taking big strides towards becoming competitive. The Big East may always be looked down upon as the little sister of the major conferences, but it will remain a fixture in the BCS for any forseeable future.

This season, it looks as if the Big East will be a two horse race between Louisville and West Virginia. Both teams will be led by prolific offenses and have defenses with question marks and holes to replace. The game between them is played in Louisville, so they have to be considered the favorite going into the season.

As for the BCS, I think the winner of that game will be the sole representative for the Big East in the BCS games, but it's not out of the realm of possiblity for both teams to make it if they both finish 11-1 or better. I don't feel that either team is good enough to finish their seasons undefeated, so it's unlikely to me that either team is a major contender for the National Championship. An undefeated Big East team may still not have enough juice in their schedule to put them into the National Championship game over some potential one loss teams.

[bulls96go]

we are picked 6th,

we have them right where we want them

[Morganeers]

Did somebody say BCS!??

Where do I buy my tickets!!?!?!  ....lol