Updated Bowl Analysis

[Jim Johnson]

We all know what happens if USF wins out, but since USF is NOW bowl eligible, we need to keep an eye on what the I-A bowl picture looks like.

If Pitt beats WVU - OR - U Conn wins their next two - OR - Notre Dame doesn't go to the BCS, then the Big East will have more teams than slots.

Therefore, let's look at all conferences and see where openings could exist:

ACC: 6 Slots -- 7 Eligible Teams

Eligible: Va Tech, FSU, Miami, Boston College, GA Tech, UVa, & Clemson

1 Win & In: Maryland (@ NC St), NC State (vs MD), UNC (vs Va Tech)

Out: Duke, Wake

1 Loss & Out: Maryland, NC State, UNC

The ACC is guaranteed to have two extra teams (both probably 6-5: Virginia and the MD/NC State winner).  One could go to an ACC bowl if the BCS selects Miami as an at large team.

Big 12: 8 Slots -- 7 Eligible Teams

Eligible: Texas, Texas Tech, Colorado, Mizzou, Neb, Okla, & iowa St

1 Win & In: Texas A&M (vs Texas), Kansas (vs Iowa St)

Out: Baylor, Kansas, Okla State

1 Loss & Out: Texas A&M (vs Texas), Kansas (vs Iowa St)

Unless Texas A&M can beat Texas or Kansas can beat Iowa State, the Big 12 will not have enough teams to fill all bowl slots.  Therefore, it would appear that either the Fort Worth Bowl or the Houston Bowl will have an open slot.

Big East: 4 Slots - 4 Eligible Teams

Eligible: South Florida, WVU, Rutgers, Louisville

1 Win & In: Pitt (@ WVU)

2 Wins & In: U Conn (vs USF, vs Louisville)

Out: Syracuse

1 Loss & Out:  Pitt, U Conn

As noted earlier, the Big East could have more teams than slots from three possibilities.

Big 10: 7 Slots - 7 Eligible Teams

Eligible: Penn St, Wisconsin, Ohio St, Mich, NWestern, Iowa, Minnesota

Out: Illinois, Purdue, Indiana, Mich St

The Big Ten has filled all slots, however, since conference co-champoin Ohio State is the highest ranked non-champion in the BCS, the Buckeyes appear to be in position to take one of the two BCS at-large bids.

If the BCS selects Ohio State, the Motor City Bowl slot will be open.

Pac 10: 6 Slots - 4 Eligible Teams

Eligible: USC, UCLA, Oregon, & Cal

1 Win & In:  AZ State (vs AZ), Stanford (vs Notre Dame)

Out: Arizona, Washington, Washington State, Oregon State

1 Loss & Out:  AZ State, Stanford

Unless Stanford can beat Notre Dame, it appeas that the Pac 10 slot in the Emerald Bowl will be open.  Additionally, if either Arizona State loses OR the BCS selects Oregon, the Las Vegas bowl will also be open.  Finally, if Arizona State loses AND the BCS selects Oregon, the Insight Bowl will also be open.

SEC: 8 Slots - 6 Eligible Teams

Eligible: Bama, UGa, Florida, Auburn, LSU, South Car

Out: Miss St, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vandy

The SEC has two bowl slots open, probably the Independence and Houston Bowls.  If the BCS selects Alabama as an at large team, the Music City Bowl could also be open.

C-USA: 5 Slots - 3 Eligible Teams

Eligible: UTEP, UCF, Tulsa

1 Win & In: So Miss (vs Tulane), Houston (vs Rice), Memphis (vs Marshall), UAB (vs ECU)

Out: SMU, Rice, Tulane, ECU, Marshall

1 Loss & Out: So Miss, Memphis, Houston, UAB

Conference USA could end up with as many as two open slots (Hawaii and New Orleans) or as many as two extra teams.

Mtn West: 3 Slots - 5 Eligible Teams

Eligible: TCU, BYU, New Mexico, Colo St, Utah

Out: San Diego St, UNLV, Air Force, Wyoming

The Mountain West has two extra teams (probably New Mexico and Utah).

Mid-Amer: 2 Slots - 6 Eligible Teams

Eligible: Toledo, Miami, West Mich, Cent Mich, Bowling Green, No Illinois

1 Win & In: Akron (vs Kent St)  

Out: Ball St, Kent St, Buffalo, East Mich, Ohio

The MAC has four and could have five extra teams.  Bowling Green and Northern Illinois will probably be the bowl teams, but the other teams could be home for the holidays.

WAC: 2 Slots - 4 Eligible Teams

Eligible: Fresno St, Boise St, LA Tech, Nevada

Out: Idaho, San Jose St, New Mex St, Hawaii, Utah St

The WAC has two extra teams, probably LA Tech and Nevada.

Sun Belt: 1 Slot - 0 Eligible Teams*

Eligible:  

1 Win & In:  Ark St (vs No Texas), LA Laf (@ LA Mon), LA Mon vs LA Laf)

Out: FAU, FIU, Troy, No Texas, Mid TN St

1 Loss & Out: LA Laf, LA Mon, Ark St

The Sun Belt could have one or two eligible teams, both at 6-5.

Indy: 4 At-Large Slots* - 2 Eligible Teams

Eligible: Notre Dame, Navy

Out: Army, Temple

There are four At Large slots that are not tied to any conference: Two in the BCS, the Poinsettia Bowl and the Liberty Bowl

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There are currently 56 Eligible Teams for 56 Bowl Slots.  Up to 5 - 8 more teams could become eligible.

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Possible desintations for USF, ranked based on what I perceive the probability is for USF to be invited.

1 Mieneke Car Care Bowl

2 Motor City Bowl

3 Sugar Bowl

4 Houston Bowl

5 Liberty Bowl (unless UCF wins C-USA)

6 Independence Bowl

7 Emerald Bowl

8 Las Vegas Bowl

9 Poinsettia Bowl

10 New Orleans Bowl

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Teams to root for this week:

1 USF over U Conn

2 WVU over Pitt

3 Notre Dame over Stanford

4 Arizona over Arizona State

5 Texas over Texas A&M

6 Iowa State over Kansas

[Bishop of Bulltown]

ok Jim, so I have a question for ya... how would we get into the Las Vegas Bowl??  ;D

[bulls96go]

thanks!

[Guest]

ok Jim, so I have a question for ya... how would we get into the Las Vegas Bowl??  ;D

First, the Big East needs to have more teams than slots.

This can happen a number of ways:

1) Pitt beats WVU.

2) U Conn wins their last two games.

3) Notre Dame doesn't get picked by the BCS.

Now, USF would need to lose to WVU, and maybe lose to U Conn to finish 7-4 or 6-5.

The Big East teams would look like this:

WVU -> Sugar Bowl

ND -> Gator

L'ville -> Insight

Rutgers -> Mieneke

Pitt, U Conn, and USF would all be 6-5 and not going to a Big East bowl.

Then, the Las Vegas Bowl would need to be open.  The Las Vegas features the Mountain West Champion (TCU) against the #5 selection from the Pac 10.  The Pac 10 only has 4 eligible teams right now - so the slot could be open unless either Stanford (Notre Dame) or Arizona State (Arizona) win their final game.

The slot could also be open if Oregon gets a BCS at large slot and only one of Arizona or Stanford wins.

Finally, with USF available AND the slot is open, USF could be selected to attend the game.

[Markeymark]

I'm gonna go get a beer...when I get back, I want a complete breakdown of the probabilities for any Division I school to get into the Emerald Bowl.  

[USFMikeB]

First, the Big East needs to have more teams than slots.

This can happen a number of ways:

1) Pitt beats WVU.

2) U Conn wins their last two games.

3) Notre Dame doesn't get picked by the BCS.

Now, USF would need to lose to WVU, and maybe lose to U Conn to finish 7-4 or 6-5.

The Big East teams would look like this:

WVU -> Sugar Bowl

ND -> Gator

L'ville -> Insight

Rutgers -> Mieneke

Pitt, U Conn, and USF would all be 6-5 and not going to a Big East bowl.

Then, the Las Vegas Bowl would need to be open.  The Las Vegas features the Mountain West Champion (TCU) against the #5 selection from the Pac 10.  The Pac 10 only has 4 eligible teams right now - so the slot could be open unless either Stanford (Notre Dame) or Arizona State (Arizona) win their final game.

The slot could also be open if Oregon gets a BCS at large slot and only one of Arizona or Stanford wins.

Finally, with USF available AND the slot is open, USF could be selected to attend the game.

Reminds me of a question from the LSAT...

[Velcro]

Cincy can be listed as out in the analysis above.

[lotsofbull99]

at 6-5 we don't make a bowl

[CoolBull1]

I already have plans to be at the Las Vegas Bowl...I hope that is not (know it's a long shot) where USF ends up because I'm trying to get to 3 different bowl games.  (LV, where USF plays and Champs Sports).  If we're not playing on Jan. 2, I will find a Bowl Game that day too.

[lotsofbull99]

Car Care Bowl would be nice, and a game we could compete in