How much will USF BB improve?

[Papa_Bull]

Or, will it improve at all this year?

The Rutger's fans asked that question about themselves on their site, and I was curious what the posters here thought.

[Papa_Bull]

I know it's football season, so don't everybody speak at once.  ;D

[bulls96go]

12th we will be better

[Papa_Bull]

Ok here is a start:

jellyman

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Post #4380 Re: Jellyman...just what I needed Reply

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howie,

While it is certainly possible S. Florida does much better than anyone expects (you never know), the odds and even the cursory analysis would suggest that last place is where S. Florida ends up.

Look, let's be realistic here for just a moment and look at some facts ... here is a team that

1) Was 5-11 Conference USA last year (you folks were 14-16 overall), finishing 11th out of 14 teams.

2) Did manage to beat Charlotte, at home, late in the season, and Cincy, in the USA Toruney, 2 top 30 RPI teams.

3) Did manage ot LOSE to TWO teams not even in the top 150 of the RPI.

4) Was ranked #170 in RPI.

5) Played NINE games against teams not in the top 200 in RPI, or not Division 1 (was 8-1 in those games).

6) Was a team that was 6-15 against teams in the top 200 in RPI, and was 3-13 against teams in the top 150 in RPI, and played 12 games against top 100 teams last year (11 in conference).

7) Played a schedule that ranked 125th toughest in the country last year.

8) Lost its top 3 scorers, and arguably 3 best players, from last year.

Now, for comparison's sake, let's look at a team that we all think was REALLY bad last year: Rutgers RU was a team that:

1) Was 2-14 in conference last year (10-19 overall)

2) Did manage to beat CHARLOTTE, also, but AT Charlotte, and St. Mary's at home (both teams the equivalent RPI as Charlotte and Cincy).

3) Did manage to LOSE to TWO teams not even in the top 150 of the RPI.

4) Was ranked 144th in RPI

5) Played just FOUR games against teams not in the top 200 RPI or non-Division 1, an absurdly difficult schedule (was 3-1 in those games).

6) Was 7-18 in games against teams in the top 200 (versus 6-15 for USF), and was 6-17 against teams in the top 150 in RPI (versus USF's 3-13), and played a ridiculous 18 games against top 100 RPI teams (15 in conference).

7) Played a schedule that ranked 14th toughest in the country last year.

8) Lost its 2nd leading scorer and its 1st guard off the bench, and returns not only 4 of its top 6 scorers (and really, 7 of its top 9 scorers), but also a player who averaged 20 minutes per game at PF TWO yeasr agao who missed all of last year due to injury ... PLUS adds 4 excellent freshman, 1 of whom will almost certainly start, and another of whom may start by mid-season.

And I will be happy with SEVEN Big East wins for RU, and probably okay with 6 Big East wins (assuming that gets RU to a .500 record).

And NO OTHER Big East teams lost as much of theri 2004-5 talent base than did USF. MAYBE PC compares, losing Gomes and Kotti. And MAYBE SHU, losing Allen, Morris (who was gone before the end of the year), Sweet and Cerasoli. But each of those teams return more talent than USF. the question will be how good are USF's recruits (several JUCO's, who often have trouble contributing immediately in Big East play).

I think USF and their fans have no idea how competitive the Big East is from game to game. Though Confernce USA is a solid conference, the BIg East is more than one cut above ... and the Big east just added 2 of the top 3 teams from Conference USA, and 2 of the middle teams from Conference USA, making it even MORE competitive. USF will very likely finish 16th, or 15th, and if they finish even as high as 14th, USF fans should be ecstatic.

Historically, new teams coming into the Big East from lesser conferences, especially teams that were in the bottom half of their pld, and weaker, leagues, tend to come in LAST in the Big East in their 1st couple of years. This was true for RU, Pitt, and Miami.

__________________________________

"The lost causes are those MOST worth fighting for." Senator Smith, in "Mr. Smith Goes to Washington"

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"If 1 word can suffice, then 10,000 CERTAINLY can!"

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If you want to reach me, please feel free to e-mail me at: jellyman@rutgersfan.com

Posted on 8/17 12:07 PM | IP: Logged

HowieP

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Post #379 Re: Jellyman...just what I needed Edit | Reply

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Jellyman...All I said is we won't finish last and have a "realistic" goal of making the BE team which requires us finishing no worse than 12th.

I'll stand by that.

I really don't want to clutter up this thread more than necessary.

If you are more interested about USF BB you can post on the USF Rivals board or the other USF message board.

Link: The Bulls Pen

Posted on 8/17 12:19 PM | IP: Logged

jellyman

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Post #4381 Re: Jellyman...just what I needed Reply

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howie,

Not cluttering up the thread ... these are good discussions.

But ... explain to me why you think it is a "realistic" goal for USF to make the top 12, and the BET?

USF almost certainly would have been last in the Big East last year, and finished behind the other Conf. USA teams that are coming into the Big East this coming year. And USF lost more talent than anyone else. For USF to make the BET, it will have to do better than FOUR other teams, from amongst these likely candidates: SHU, RU, St. Johns, PC, Depaul, and Marquette. Injuries aside, how do you see that happening? EACH of those teams return MORE of their good players from last year (except MAYBE PC), AND are bringing in better players than is USF (except maybe SHU and PC). And of those teams, ONLY St. Johns, SHU and RU were even close to being as bad as USF last year ... but they were NOT as bad.

I do not like to have these discussions about other teams on THEIR Boards, because I feel it is not courteous to pick apart a team on thier own Board. I might talk about RU's prospects on someone els's Board, or ask questions. But a discussion like this I like to keep on this thread.

__________________________________

"The lost causes are those MOST worth fighting for." Senator Smith, in "Mr. Smith Goes to Washington"

______________________________

"If 1 word can suffice, then 10,000 CERTAINLY can!"

______________________________

If you want to reach me, please feel free to e-mail me at: jellyman@rutgersfan.com

Posted on 8/17 1:15 PM | IP: Logged

http://rutgers.rivals.com/showmsg.asp?fid=641&tid=56328158&sid=&style=2

[Velcro]

how does he compute that Charlotte and Cincy's combined RPI last year was equivilant to Charlotte and DII st mary's combined RPI?

[Guest BasketBull.]

I'm still keeping my fingers crossed about our roster: will we have all the players that we expect to be there?

As far as team-wise, I'm sure the staff will do fine with getting the most out of the guys. We will not be last! But, the first step is getting everybody on campus and qualified...

[Zonald]

While we might be better, I don't think our record will reflect same as we are now in the Big East.   :-/

[beastiebull]

I've watched BE basketball for 16 yrs when I lived in NYC.  I've watched USF basketball for the past 8 years.  It's just a different universe than many here realize.  We have some decent players coming in however NONE of them would sniff the starting 5 at the top 11 BE schools (except for Buckley.  Sills, none of us really know.  I don't believe any of us have seen him play.  The Rucker does have some good talent, but also a lot of ghost stories that never really happened.  Is Sills one of those?).

Getting a top 12 finish will be more difficult than going to a bowl in football.

[beastiebull]

BTW I picked us to finish 15th, with only rutgers behind us, despite that Rutgers' fan's very good argument against it.  

[Papa_Bull]

I've watched BE basketball for 16 yrs when I lived in NYC.  I've watched USF basketball for the past 8 years.  It's just a different universe than many here realize.  We have some decent players coming in however NONE of them would sniff the starting 5 at the top 11 BE schools (except for Buckley.  Sills, none of us really know.  I don't believe any of us have seen him play.  The Rucker does have some good talent, but also a lot of ghost stories that never really happened.  Is Sills one of those?).

Getting a top 12 finish will be more difficult than going to a bowl in football.

There is no doubt about it that the Big East is a much better basketball conference than C-USA, but there were quite a few C-USA BB teams who would have done very well in the BE throughout the years, so we have gotten a taste of what's to come.

We have gotten many BE caliber players over the years but, for whatever reasons, we just haven't been all that consistent.

I doubt there are many freshmen who would "sniff" the starting five at the more elite schools, so I'm not sure that point is all that important.

Certainly Zaronn Cann was recruited by many BE schools before his injury and some afterwards. If he is now healthy he could be a contributor right away. At one point he was considered the #2 prospect if florida and the knock on him was his work ethic. Well, we know he had to BATTLE to get through what could have been a career ending injuryes and that speaks volumes that he WANTS to play.

Here is an old article [which also happens to mention Brumbaugh]:

Many people are wondering why the popular Keith Brumbaugh and Zaronn Cann are not the #1 and 2 players in the class. Lets start with Brumbaugh. We question Brumbaugh's competitive spirit. Sure he holds his own against older players, and he did well on the national level. However, we have yet to see what he will do against players his own age that have something to prove. It's one thing to play against older guys that are not coming at you full speed every play and it is another thing entirely playing against hungry peers in your own state that have something to prove. We would like to see if Brumbaugh has the mental toughness to kick his game into another level when he is being pressured by other players in Florida's 2005 class. The Players that are coming at him every single play. On the other hand we feel that Zaronn Cann lacks a consistent desire to play. He gets the Randy Moss I play when I wanna award. We are aware that both players are young and have bright futures ahead of them. However, at this time mental toughness and a consistent desire to compete are keeping them from being ranked higher in our 2005 rankings.

http://www.breakdownmagazine.com/flnews/rankings/content/2005.htm

Sills, labled "The Enigma" is just that. But, he too has been through the ringer and is matured and ready to do battle in the BE and now understands "team play".

"I'm not just a playground guy," Sills said. "I'm so much more mature now. I want to lead the pack down there. We're going to do something special."

http://www.sptimes.com/2005/04/13/Sports/Recruit_points_Bulls_.shtml

I think Chris Howard could step in and play right away just like his former teammate was expected to do at Pitt this year.

Here is a free Rivals article mentioning him and Sam Young playing:

Still, what good is an All-Star game without at least a LITTLE "playground artistry"? Chris Howard had the "Play of the Night" last night when he successfully completed an behind the back alley-oop pass TO HIMSELF!!! Needless to say, the few fans in the stands at Springbrook went wild - when they realized what they actually saw!

 

http://mdvarsity.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=285428

And another free Rivals article:

- Chris Howard, a talented, good shooting 6'3" combonation guard who has helped Sam Young lead Friendly HS to a pair of State Championships as a junior and senior, was the high scorer in last night's scrimmage. He had 19 points and three 3 three pointers. He also had 5 assists. Howard averaged 18 points, 10 assists, and 6 rebounds this year. Chris told us last night that, "I'm talking to Clemson right now, if I don't sign there, I might go to prep school next year."

http://mdvarsity.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=286029

The stories about Howard are legendary. He's been practicing with Florida Prep and doing very well. Check out who THEY have on their team. I only hope we can land some of THEIR players now and in the future.

We all know about Buckley. This will be HIS team!

http://www.thebullspen.com/cgi-bin/yabb/YaBB.pl?board=news;action=display;num=1110740130;start=1#1

I'm not sure if this post from Melvin is still available:

Melvin posted here about that:

melbuck30

Guest

 Re: Basketball Adds Purdue Transfer Melvin Buckley

« Reply #41 on: May 27th, 2004, 2:22am »  Quote  Modify  

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What up south florida this is melvin Buckley and with the whole purdue thing and my comments in the paper its all funny to me.  The comment in the paper about jacking up 22fts was a joke i was playing with the journalist but making a point that i was on a short leash.  If anybody looked it up a 3pt shot is from 21 feet i hit it 42% my freshmen year and half way through my soph year i was hitting 45%. Fact of the matter is they wanted me in the post at purdue im a slashing, shooting guard not a post player.  Im out to prove everybody wrong and dont worry we are going to be contenders in the Big East. I dont lost <typo> never have been one and dont plan to start.  Thanks for letting me be a part of your program wont let you down.

 http://www.usfbullspen.com/cgi-bin/yabb/YaBB.pl?board=news;action=displa y;num=1085002895;start=25

 

We'll just have to see who will step up, but we seem to have guys who are talented and are hungry.