CFN: UCF PREVIEW

[Brad]

By Pete Fiutak

Forget about year one of the George O'Leary era. While we're at it, we might as well forget about the whole MAC experience that was less than impressive for a program that was supposed to take the league by storm. Now, 2004's worst team makes a jump up into the Conference USA world looking to turn things around in a hurry.

The big problem was youth and inexperience with an offensive line that started three true freshmen and two sophomores, a secondary that was hit so hard by injuries that two receivers had to switch positions, and erratic play from everyone else. To make things worse, the team couldn't come up with a key play in close games.

There was the two point loss to Buffalo followed up by a two point loss to Northern Illinois. There was an overtime loss to Ohio on a missed extra point, and there was a four point loss to Ball State along with a five point loss to Akron. With a few better bounces and some production from the offense that did next to nothing last year, this could be a four-win season. But don't get too excited until next season when this team will have the experience and depth to start making some noise again.

The Schedule: If UCF can improve a little bit in every area, this will be a manageable schedule with winnable games against UL Lafayette, East Carolina and Rice. Unfortunately, those three games are on the road. There are only four home games without two in a row. Outside of opener at South Carolina there isn't an absolute, 100% guaranteed loss, but there aren't any sure wins either.

Best Offensive Player: Junior WR Mike Walker. The team's best deep threat is also the team's top cornerback. He should flourish now that he'll spend all his time on offense.

Best Defensive Player: Sophomore DT Keith Shologan. Call this a projection as Shologan should grow into the team's best lineman. There aren't any stars on the UCF D, but there are several young prospects that should shine as the year goes on.

Key player to a successful season: Junior QB Steven Moffett or sophomore QB Kyle Israel. The line will be better and the receiving corps won't be bad, so one of the quarterbacks has to emerge as a steady leader of the attack. It'll likely have to Moffett with Istael recovering from a broken leg.

The season will be a success if ... UCF wins four games. There aren't any gimmes on the schedule, but a little bit of luck and a good year from the coaching staff should mean a few victories. The key will be to win right away to bust the 15-game losing streak and get some sort of positive vibe around the program.

Key game: September 17 at South Florida. There will be an annual recruiting battle between the two Florida schools for Florida talent. The winner will have a huge leg up and UCF can have a fantastic start to its world in the new league.

2004 Fun Stats:

- Second quarter scoring: Opponents 117 - UCF 29

- Sacks: Opponents 44 for 313 yards - UCF 12 for 63 yards

- Road game at Penn State attendance: 101,715 - Road game at Ball State attendance: 5,309

UCF offense

Basically ... UCF was 114th in the nation in total offense and 113th in scoring struggling all season to get anything going. The main problem was the offensive line that started three true freshmen and two sophomores, but the positive is that they're all back with a year of experience. There has to be some consistency at quarterback with Steven Moffett needing to be a bigger playmaker. The top running back (Alex Haynes) and top two receivers (Luther Huggins and Tavaris Capers) are gone, but they'll be easily replaced.

Star of the offense: Junior WR Mike Walker

Player that has to step up and become a star: Junior QB Steven Moffett

Unsung star on the rise: Junior RB Jason Peters

Best pro prospect: Senior TE Darcy Johnson

Top three all-star candidates: 1) Walker, 2) Johnson, 3) OT Dominic Ignelzi

Strength of the offense: Receivers, experience on the offensive line

Weakness of the offense: Offensive line depth, overall production

Quarterbacks

The quarterbacks couldn't come up with enough big plays last year and struggled at producing points, but they weren't the team's main problem. Steven Moffett showed signs that he can become a big-time player, and sophomore Kyle Israel is a big bomber who needs a little more time to heal a broken leg before he becomes a factor. These two won't be stars, but they'll be more than competent if the rest of the offense improves and if they get time from the line that allowed 44 sacks last year.

Player to keep an eye on: Kyle Israel, Soph. ... Quarterback Rating: 5

Projected Starter

- Steven Moffett, Jr. - Moffett is a good-sized player with a huge arm and good mobility, but consistency is a major issue and turnovers was a big problem throwing ten interceptions with nine touchdown passes. He has the skills to grow into a good passer and was accurate completing 64% of his throws, but he has to prove he can lead the offense to points and has to start showing he can win.

Top Backups

- Kyle Israel, Soph. - Israel doesn't have the skills of Steven Moffett, but he's bigger with a live arm and will get every shot at the starting job. He missed most of last year with a leg injury after only throwing for 129 yards with an interception in three games of action. He's more of a pure pocket passer than Moffett, but he's not immobile. Unfortunately, he reinjured the leg this preseason and underwent surgery with a rod inserted.

Running Backs

Alex Haynes was a great player stuck on a horrible offense. He only averaged four yards per carry rushing for 854 yards and five touchdowns, but he'll still be missed. Dontavius Wilcox will get the first look at the number one job, but Curtis Francis adds a bit more flash and JUCO transfer Jason Peters is the whole package.

Player to keep an eye on: Jason Peters, Jr. ... Running back rating: 5.5

Projected Starters

- Dontavius Wilcox, Jr. - Wilcox is a 220-pound runner with tremendous quickness and good upside. He spent last year playing behind Alex Haynes rushing for 215 yards and touchdowns. He hasn't had much of a chance to be a workhorse, but he should shine once he get his shot and should break off several big runs.

- Fullback Goodson Ohaegbulam, Jr. - The former linebacker had a decent first year learning the ropes in the backfield. He's a 250-pound physical blocker who won't see much work as a ball-carrier.

Top Backups

- Curtis Francis, Soph. - Mostly a special teamer last year, Francis the fastest of the UCF backs and will get every chance to take over the starting role. He was third on the team with 30 rushing yards on seven carries.

- Jason Peters, Jr. - The JUCO transfer is the potential star of the offense. He's 6-2, 230 pounds and ripped off 1,679 yards as a freshman at Butte Junior College. He has the moves and the power to be the team's number one rushing option.

Receivers

The top two wide receivers, Luther Huggins and Tavaris Capers, are gone, but there might be an overall improvement in production with Mike Walker and Brandon Marshall able to fully concentrate on playing offense this year. The two spent last season on defense after the secondary was hit by injuries, and now they'll shine in a full-time receiver role. Darcy Johnson is a talented tight end who needs to be used more in the passing attack.

Player to keep an eye on: Brooks Turner, Jr. ... Receiver rating: 5.5

Projected Starters

- Mike Walker, Jr. - Walker did a little of everything last year catching nine passes for 191 yards and a touchdown for a team-leading 21.2-yard average, and he was the team's top corner with a team-leading three interceptions, 29 tackles and three broken up passes. At 6-2 and 195 pounds, he's a big-time target and great deep threat. He'll spend his time on offense this year.

- Brandon Marshall, Sr. - Marshall spent most of last year at safety making 51 tackles and an interception a year after catching 28 passes for 377 yards and two touchdowns. Now he'll play offense using his 6-4, 230-pound size as a big target on the outside.

- Tight end Darcy Johnson, Sr. - Johnson will be one of the most talented tight ends in Conference USA, but he needs more work and has to be a better blocker. There's no questioning his hands or his receiving skills catching 30 passes for 244 yards last year with good speed in a 6-5, 255-pound frame.

Top Backups

- Brooks Turner, Jr. - The third receiver in the mix, Turner came through with 16 catches for 126 yards as a short-range threat when Mike Walker and Brandon Marshall moved to the secondary last year. He's one of the team's fastest receivers and will be used on kickoff returns.

- Sergiori Joachim, Soph. - At 6-5 and 200 pounds, Joachim provides another huge Golden Knight target to the mix. He'll battle with Andre Sumpter and Chris Narsesian for the number four spot.

- Tight end Antonio Eldemire, Sr. - The former JUCO transfer was a solid number two tight end last year behind Darcy Johnson catching six passes for 46 yards and a touchdown. He's good at getting open, but his playing time will only increase if he plays a big role as a blocker in the running game.

Offensive Line

If you're looking for the problem with the 2004 UCF offense, this was it. UCF was forced to star three true freshmen and two sophomores. On the positive side, there's a ton of returning experience with the line about a year away from being a killer group. The front five is big, but it needs more time in the weight room and needs to find the right players for the right spots with some shuffling being done this spring. There's not much depth to speak of.

Player to keep an eye on: L.J. Anderson, RFr. ... Offensive line rating: 5

Projected Starters

- Tackle Dominic Iguelzi, Soph. - It was trial by fire as a true freshman starting every game at left guard. The 6-4, 300-pounder is one of the team's up-and-coming blockers and will make the move to left tackle to use his athleticism and toughness.

- Guard Dan Veenstra, Jr. - The 6-5, 300-pound junior will move from tackle to left guard. He spent last year at left tackle with mixed results, and should be better on the inside where he'll be more of a pounding run blocker.

- Center Cedric Gagne-Marcoux, Jr. - The anchor of the line, Gagne-Marcoux is back for his third year as the starter. He has enough experience to hope for a big year, but he has to be more consistent.

- Guard Kyle Smith, Soph. - Versatile enough to play guard or center, the 6-3, 280-pound Smith will get back his starting spot at right guard after taking over midway through last year.

- Tackle Josh Sitton, Soph. - At 6-5 and 310 pounds, the sophomore is the biggest of the UCF linemen. He'll move from guard to tackle after spending most of last season at right guard. He could end up playing center if needed.

Top Backups

- T L.J. Anderson, RFr. - Anderson saw plenty of practice time last year and is being groomed for a starting spot on the right side. He needs a little more time in the weight room and a little more work.

- T Kyle Storey, RFr. - At 6-5 and 285 pounds, Storey is a good-looking young prospect on the left side. He'll play a big role this year behind Dominic Ignelzi.

Basically ... The defense didn't get any sort of pass rush and was crushed by injuries in the secondary. Now the issue is a very, very raw linebacking corps. The line should be the strength with experience, size and depth. A shutdown corner has to emerge and the young safeties have to make plays right away. Someone has to get to the quarterback after only generating 14 sacks.

Star of the defense: Sophomore DT Keith Shologan

Player that has to step up and become a star: Sophomore DE Dennis King

Unsung star on the rise: Junior DE Kareem Reid

Best pro prospect: Shologan

Top three all-star candidates: 1) Shologan, 2) DE Glenroy Watkins, 3) CB Ron Ellis

Strength of the defense: Defensive line

Weakness of the defense: Linebackers

Defensive Line

The line didn't generate any pass rush last year and had way too many problems against the run. Expect that to change this year with plenty of returning experience and good depth helped by the addition of Kareem Reid from Kentucky. This is a big line with large ends and true tackles. Now it has to produce.

Player to keep an eye on: DE Kareem Reid, Jr. ... Defensive Line rating: 6

Projected Starters

- DE Glenroy Watkins, Sr. - 23 tackles, 1 sack, 2 tackles for loss ... The 240-pound Watkins saw a little bit of starting time and was a decent producer, but he wasn't anything spectacular. He has good speed and has good potential to become a star pass rusher. Now he has to shine on the left side.

- DT Keith Shologan, Soph. - 30 tackles, 1 sack, 2 tackles for loss ... The rising young star of the ling, the 280-pound true sophomore started every game and had a good season. Now he should be better after getting stronger over the off-season.

- DT Emeka Okammor, Soph. - 14 tackles, 1 tackle for loss ... Okammor started eight times as a true freshman and will keep the job on the right side. At 270 pounds, he has good size and is growing into a good run stopper.

- DE Dennis King, Soph. - 5 tackles ... King played a little bit of tackle and some end as a freshman. Now he'll be a big, 260-pound left end more of a run stuffer than a pass rusher.

Top Backups

- DE Paul Carrington, Sr. - 30 tackles, 4 sacks, 9.5 tackles for loss ... Carrington's role decreased a little bit from his breakout 2003 campaign, but he was a better pass rusher and got better as the season went on. At 6-7, he's hard to throw over as he's great at batting down passes. He'll see time on the left side along with Glenroy Watkins.

- DE Kareem Reid, Jr. - The Kentucky transfer is 270 pounds and can play either end or tackle, but he'll likely start out as a big end on the right side.

- DT Frisner Nelson, Sr. - 17 tackles, 1 sack .. He had a few problems with an ankle injury, but he still came through with a good season as a reserve. The 290-pound senior will play behind Emeka Okammor on the right side.

Linebackers

This could be a major concern with almost no experienced depth and only one true returning linebacker, James Cook. The coaching staff is relying on true freshman Clarence Howard in the middle and Jordan Richards on the outside; that's not a positive. This is a speedy crew that'll take a while to come together. It could be a long while.

Player to keep an eye on: Clarence Howard, Fr. ... Linebacker rating: 3.5

Projected Starters

- James Cook, Sr. - 32 tackles, 2 sacks, 4 tackles for loss ... The 220-pound Cook will have to be the leader of the linebackers with the most experience and as the only senior. He's a good tackler on the weakside and can get into the backfield.

- Clarence Howard, Fr. - The 260-pound true freshman is big enough to play defensive end and athletic enough to play tight end, but he'll get the first look in the middle using his all-around talents right away.

- Chris Welsh, Jr. - 25 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss ... The 235-pound junior will move from defensive end to strongside linebacker to use his strength and quickness in space. He's a tremendous worker who goes non-stop.

Top Backups

- Jordan Richards, Fr. - The 215-pound true freshman can fly and should be a big-time contributor right off the bat on the weakside. He'll be groomed behind James Cook to be the 2006 starter.

- Ronnell Sandy, Jr. - 4 tackles ... Sandy saw a little bit of time last year mostly on special teams. Now he'll be a backup in the middle behind Clarence Howard in the middle.

- Randy Dozier, Soph. - 5 tackles, 2 sacks ... Dozier got a little bit of mopup work last year and came up with two sacks. The 210-pound sophomore will work on the strongside behind Chris Welsh.

Defensive Backs

On paper, the secondary struggled giving up 217 yards per game 21 touchdown passes, but it was a stellar effort considering there was no pass rush to help it out and there was a plague of injuries. Wide receivers Mike Walker and Brandon Marshall had to come over to help out, and are still the team's best defensive backs. Now there needs to be some steady play from some young players and the corners need to become tighter.

Player to keep an eye on: FS Sha'reff Rashad, RFr. ... Secondary rating: 4

Projected Starters

- CB Travis Holmes, Jr. - 15 tackles, 2 broken up passes ... Holmes isn't all that big, but the walk-on turned into a steady player at the end of last year proving to be a decent tackler. He's not bad on bigger receivers and will take over the starting spot on the left side.

- FS Sha'reff Rashad, RFr. - It'll be up to Rashad to be a major factor at free safety with his good size and decent speed. He earned the starting spot early in his true freshman year, but he broke his hand on the first play of the game and missed the rest of the season.

- SS Renford Parkes, Soph. - 42 tackles, 1 interception ... Parkes stepped up when the UCF safeties got hurt and started five games finishing sixth on the team in tackles. He should be far better this year now that he has a year of experience.

- CB Ron Ellis, Jr. - 45 tackles ... Ellis is going to be one of the best tackling corners in Conference USA. Now he has to be a strong cover-corner and make more plays when the ball is in the air. He has the experience and great quickness, and now he has to establish himself as the shutdown man.

Top Backups

- CB Johnell Neal, RFr. - Speed isn't a problem for Neal, but strength and size is. He got bigger in the last year bulking up to 180 pounds and he should be a factor on the right side behind Ron Ellis.

- SS Rashad Mays, Sr. - 15 tackles, 1 interception, 2 broken up passes ... The walk-on got a crash course in playing time after injuries hit the secondary. He's more of a corner playing safety, but he has the experience to step in this year if needed.

Special Teams

PK Matt Prater is way too good to have another bad season. P Aaron Horne got better as last year went on and should be more consistent this year. The return game was average and should be decent again.

Special Teams rating: 7

- Placekicker Matt Prater, Sr. - 9-14 FGs, 12-14 extra points ... Prater is in his fourth year as a starter and has a huge leg, but now he has to regain his consistency after fighting through a leg injury last year. He struggled from mid-range missing four of his seven kicks from 30-39 yards, but he was able to nail a 51-yarder. Expect him to regain his high level this year.

- Punter Aaron Horne, Sr. - The FIU transfer averaged 38.7 yards per kick last year putting 18 inside the 20 and forcing 13 fair catches. He could use more blast on his kicks, but direction isn't an issue.

With a fresh set of downs…

1st and Ten – Here you take it.  No, you take it.  No, I insist, you take it – It may not be the revolving door like it was at Kansas State, but if the Golden Knights are going to start making some headway in Conference USA, a quarterback has to step up and ‘own’ the position.  Steven Moffett and Kyle Israel entered spring practice as co-number ones, but one of them must step forward to be THE number one.  Moffett started eight games last year, completing 64% of his passes, but had a 9 to 10, TD to interception ratio.  Israel played in three games last year, starting one, but his passing stats were poor.  The junior Moffett has a strong arm and tremendously quick feet, but he has to improve his decision making prowess, especially so for a team coached by George O’Leary.  Israel doesn’t move as well as Moffett can, as he’s more of a classic pocket passer with a modicum of mobility.  However, one thing that you shouldn’t expect to see in Orlando is a rotating quarterback system.  Last year’s yo-yo was roller coaster enough, and the only way this team is going to get the bagel out of the win column is to establish a consistent starter at this position.  Pick your poison – run then pass or pass then run?  Moffett or Israel?

2nd and Seven – I thought Atari was extinct in the 1980s? – Although he was injured last year and didn’t play as well as he had earlier in his career, strong safety Atari Bigby was an experienced, productive leader.  Consequently, he’s now gone; so, there’s going to be a spotlight on the safety positions to play well.  Former Episcopal High standout Sha’reff Rashad should lock down the free safety spot, while Renford Parkes should take over full time at strong safety.  Parkes started while Bigby was out last year, so he’s got some experience.  But, now it’s going to be their show this year, and in this conference, it can be tough going solo.

3rd and Three – The Golden Line – This year’s offensive line is perhaps the most experienced unit on this team, and with the uncertainty at quarterback, that’s good news for Coach O’Leary and the Golden Knights.  Being able to give Moffett and/or Israel the time to throw or the lanes to make plays with their legs will go a long way in determining how well this offense fares this year.  O’Leary wants to have a strong, quick moving unit up front, and this line has the potential to give him just that.  Whether they reach their potential is a different question altogether, but don’t think that O’Leary will let them rest until they do.

4th and One – Don’t be Misled – As a head coach, George O’Leary had never had a worst season, record wise.  But, don’t be lulled into thinking that this team didn’t make strides last year, under difficult circumstances.  The aforementioned offensive line was one of the youngest in the nation.  There was a sophomore and a freshman at the quarterback position.  Experienced seniors were injured at key points in the year.  Freshmen saw the field perhaps more than O’Leary wanted.  O’Leary knew this rebuilding job wasn’t going to be easy, but he’s molding his players the way he wants and that’s worked very well in the past.  0 and 11 won’t happen ever again in Orlando under this man.

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