pac 10 stretch run

smazza · October 25, 2006

Fluky PAC-10 heartens Oregon State

Posted 10/24/2006 10:04 PM ET E-mail | Save | Print | Reprints & Permissions | Subscribe to stories like this

Enlarge By Robert Hanashiro, USA TODAY

Quarterback John David Booty and the USC Trojans are a perfect 5-0 in the Pac-10 so far this season. They face Oregon State on the road this Saturday.

By Kelly Whiteside, USA TODAY

The last time No. 2 Southern California traveled to Corvallis, Ore., the fog was so thick that USC coach Pete Carroll likened the game to playing in a cloud. The same might be said of the fuzzy Pacific-10 picture at the moment.

"It's as even as it's been," says Carroll. "Everyone has a chance to beat each other. I don't think there's a big separation the last couple of weeks."

Given the depth and unpredictability of the league, how big a surprise would it be if underdog Oregon State beat the Trojans this weekend at Reser Stadium? Well, from a historical perspective, it would be huge, given USC has a better winning percentage (.855) against the Beavers than any other Pac-10 team. But from this season's standpoint, such an upset might not be so outlandish.

Oregon, which seemed to be the third-best team in the league behind USC and California, lost last week at Washington State and dropped from 15th to 24th in the USA TODAY Coaches' Poll. Cal, which has looked like the league's most impressive team of late, needed overtime to beat Washington, which was without its starting quarterback. As a result, the Golden Bears fell one spot to No. 12. USC didn't even play, but slipped a spot in the Bowl Championship Series rankings to No. 3 and has been roundly criticized for only beating its last three Pac-10 foes Ã¢â‚¬â€ Arizona State, Washington, Washington State Ã¢â‚¬â€ by seven points or fewer. What gives?

"The past couple of years there's been USC out front on the top end, and maybe a team on the bottom end and then eight teams in the middle," says Arizona State coach Dirk Koetter. "This year, Cal is off to a fast start, along with USC, but I think three through eight or so are very even teams, and I think a couple of plays can determine the outcome of the game."

The Golden Bears and Trojans are still undefeated in the conference Ã¢â‚¬â€ they meet Nov. 18 in Los Angeles Ã¢â‚¬â€ but Oregon, Washington State, Oregon State and UCLA have two league losses each. "One loss keeps you in it, but two losses makes you so dependent on other people," says Oregon coach Mike Bellotti. "To say that Cal or SC, who seem to be in the driver's seat, are going to lose two, you never know. Stranger things have happened."

In Jeff Sagarin's weekly computer rankings, the Pac-10 is ahead of the vaunted Southeastern Conference largely because of the league's 19-9 non-conference record. Sagarin points to USC's 50-14 win at Arkansas in the season opener and argues that the win was more impressive than Tennessee's 35-18 victory against Cal in their opener because the Trojans' victory came on the road and the Vols won at home.

If UCLA had not lost in heartbreaking fashion at then-No. 8 Notre Dame on the final drive Saturday, 20-17, the Pac-10's computer rating would have been even higher, Sagarin says. If USC defeats Notre Dame on Nov. 25, the league's hold on the top spot in Sagarin's rankings will be further strengthened.

The Trojans' trip to Corvallis this weekend will be their last regular-season game outside the state, given they are at winless Stanford, home against Oregon, Cal and Notre Dame, and at UCLA the rest of the way.

USC's last two trips to Corvallis have been tricky. In 2004, the fog was so thick that fans on one side of the stadium couldn't see fans on the other side and USC's radio play-by-play man called the game from the sideline.

In that game, the Beavers jumped to a 13-0 lead before the then-No. 1 Trojans rallied for 28 consecutive points and won 28-20. In 2000, Oregon State ended USC's 26-game winning streak in the series with a 31-21 upset. Before that, the Beavers last win vs. the Trojans came in 1967 when the Giant Killers beat the O.J. Simpson-led Trojans, 3-0, in Corvallis.

Recent history says the Trojans aren't likely to lose, given that they have won 27 consecutive Pac-10 games, 18 consecutive road games and 13 Pac-10 road games in a row. But present history says anything is possible.

The early forecast Saturday for Corvallis is for sun. But rain is expected Sunday and could blow in early. In other words, like the Pac-10 picture itself, who knows?