predictions

[smazza]

BCS, Heisman races get new look after last weekend

Updated 10/20/2006 3:36 AM ET E-mail | Save | Print | Subscribe to stories like this  

 

Enlarge By Wade Payne, AP

Alabama could use some big catches from wide receiver Keith Brown in its attempt to beat Tennessee in Knoxville.

 NCAA WEEK 8 PREVIEW

Weekend Forecast: Erick Smith makes all the picks in the Top 25 | Chat transcript

Weekend Preview: Unbeatens from the Big East hit the road for tests

Whiteside: Is culture of violence creating a generation of brawlers?

Pitt rebounding nicely: After tumultuous start, Wannstedt has Panthers in groove

Replay reversals few: Coaches' challenges not lucky in NCAA

Trouble in the Ivy League: Off-field problems plaguing conference

TV games: Where to find the top games

Things change pretty quickly in college football. Before the release of the first BCS standings, the talk was about whether Florida would have enough schedule strength to nudge out Southern California for the coveted second spot behind Ohio State.

The debate was short-lived with Auburn, using its loss to Arkansas as motivation, spoiling the fun and the Gators' dream of a perfect run through the SEC. So now there are no unbeatens in the nation's toughest conference and just five serious national title contenders without a loss.

The cloudy picture at the start of the season is clearing up. Four of the contenders (Michigan-Ohio State and Louisville-West Virginia) will face each other in the coming weeks. That leaves a maximum of three unbeatens possible on Dec. 2. Even if you were to include Rutgers in the equation, the formula remains the same as the Scarlet Knights would have to knock out their two Big East brethren to have a perfect season.

While avoiding the other contenders, USC has its own tough finish to navigate with Oregon, California and Notre Dame all coming to the Coliseum in consecutive weeks next month. Should they run the table, the Trojans will be guaranteed no worse than second in the final BCS poll.

There is one nightmare scenario. Should Pete Carroll's squad stumble, the West Virginia-Louisville winner likely will finish unbeaten and have to overcome several one-loss teams from bigger conferences.

But that is a long way off, and we know that it takes just one weekend to have everything scrambled again.

The same applies to the Heisman race, which had its own shakeup last Saturday as two of Troy Smith's top contenders fell by the wayside. The stunner was the loss of Oklahoma's Adrian Peterson, who likely will miss the rest of the regular season because of a broken collarbone, hurt while diving into the end zone against Iowa State.

Also, Northern Illinois' Garrett Wolfe, the little engine that could have been a contender, managed just 25 yards on the ground against Western Michigan after averaging 235 yards in his first five games.

So like the race to the national title game, the Heisman chase looks to be another case where the field is chasing Ohio State.

No. 1 Ohio State vs. Indiana, noon

Let's hope the Hoosiers enjoyed their back-to-back wins in the Big Ten, including the school's best victory against a ranked opponent in nearly 20 years. The celebration will stop when the team bus reaches Columbus. Ohio State 45, Indiana 14.

No. 3 Michigan vs. No. 23 Iowa, 3:30 p.m.

This is the last legitimate hurdle that could trip up the much-anticipated meeting of Michigan and Ohio State. The Wolverines should clear the obstacle easily with the Hawkeyes still reeling from their loss to Indiana. Michigan 31, Iowa 13.

No. 4 West Virginia at Connecticut, 8 p.m. (Friday)

The Mountaineers have the top running attack in the country at 328 yards per game. The Huskes rank 105th in stopping the run. That succinctly sums up this game. West Virginia 40, Connecticut 14.

No. 5 Texas at No. 16 Nebraska, noon

It's the eighth week and the Longhorns and freshman quarterback Colt McCoy finally get tested in a true road game. The environments don't get much tougher than Lincoln, especially with the Cornhuskers ready for the signature win that will announce their return to. the national stage Nebraska 24, Texas 23.

No. 6 Louisville at Syracuse, noon

Brian Brohm shook off the rust from his one-month layoff as the Cardinals struggled past Cincinnati. This is the last chance for both he and the Cardinals to refine their game with West Virginia coming to town in two weeks. Louisville 35, Syracuse 16.

No. 7 Auburn vs. Tulane, 2:30 p.m.

It has been a wild two weeks for the Tigers, who saw their national title hopes damaged by Arkansas and then recovered in an emotional defeat of Florida. Playing the Green Wave should be a day at the beach. Auburn 38, Tulane 9.

No. 8 Notre Dame vs. UCLA, 2:30 p.m.

This sounds like a "dog eats homework" excuse, but the Bruins might be without quarterback Patrick Cowan because of a throat injury that won't allow him to call the signals. Not that playing Notre Dame in South Bend isn't enough to make you speechless. Notre Dame 30, UCLA 14.

No. 9 Tennessee vs. Alabama, 3:30 p.m.

Like clockwork, the third Saturday in October is reserved for the Tide and Volunteers. And like most years, this should be another close game, even though Alabama enters seemingly overmatched after some close wins against Mississippi and Duke. Tennessee 20, Alabama 13.

No. 11 California vs. Washington, 3:30 p.m.

Lost in attention given to Adrian Peterson's injury was the loss of Washington quarterback Isaiah Stanback for the season. The blow is devastating to the Huskies, who were one of the feel-good stories of the first half of the season. Now they must quickly regroup with the Golden Bears entering as one of the hottest teams in the country. California 40, Washington 14.

No. 12 Clemson vs. No. 13 Georgia Tech, 7:45 p.m.

Unexpectedly, this is the game of the year in the ACC. And this may only be Act I with the possibility of both teams reaching the title game in Jacksonville. If Calvin Johnson is going to make a legitimate Heisman push, it has to start here. But don't think the Tigers won't know that, too. Clemson 23, Georgia Tech 20.

No. 14 LSU vs. Fresno State, 9 p.m.

No team may be more of disappointment than Fresno State. Thought to be a contender in the WAC, the Bulldogs have disintegrated after a close loss to Oregon. It only gets worse as the Tigers have outscored opponents 236-30 in five games at home this season. LSU 45, Fresno State 6.

No. 15 Oregon at Washington State, 5 p.m.

Another week, another top 15 team visits Pullman. It's been great for the home fans with season tickets. The Cougars have done a great job hanging around with Southern Cal and California. This is their best opportunity to finally break through with an upset. Oregon 24, Washington State 21.

No. 17 Boise State at Idaho, 5 p.m.

Dennis Erickson has the Vandals on the rise, already doubling last year's win total. While they are tied with the Broncos atop the WAC standings, this will be their litmus test in what is being billed as the biggest game in the state's history. Of course any game between Idaho teams with winning records might be worthy of that moniker.Boise State 40, Idaho 27.

No. 18 Arkansas vs. Mississippi, 12:30 p.m.

Florida's Tim Tebow may get more attention for his play as a true freshman, however Arkansas quarterback Mitch Mustain is the one that is 5-0 as a starter and has his team unbeaten in the SEC. Arkansas 31, Mississippi 13.

No. 19 Rutgers at Pittsburgh, 5:45 p.m.

Third time is always the charm. After picking against the Scarlet Knights with South Florida and Navy, this is the week for the Big East's third unbeaten to fall. I promise. Pittsburgh 26, Rutgers 16.

No. 20 Oklahoma vs. Colorado, 7 p.m.

Not to diminish the loss of Adrian Peterson, but the Sooners can now open up their offense without their star running back. That isn't all bad with Paul Thompson throwing the ball and some talented young receivers making the catches. Oklahoma 30, Colorado 12.

No. 21 Boston College at Florida State, 3:30 p.m.

Having a gimpy starting quarterback facing the speed of the Florida State defense is not an enviable dilemma, but that is the situation facing the Eagles. And the predicament only gets worse if Matt Ryan cannot play. Florida State 26, Boston College 14.

No. 22 Wisconsin at Purdue, noon

It is almost scary to watch this year's Badgers as they appear to be a carbon copy of the late 90s teams with P.J. Hill playing the role of Ron Dayne. Unfortunately the difference is that Ohio State and Michigan stand in the way of them reaching the Rose Bowl. Wisconsin 27, Purdue 17.

No. 24 Georgia vs. Mississippi State, 1 p.m.

With Matthew Stafford again returning to the starting quarterback role, this will be fourth change of the season for Georgia. Let's hope a strong performance will add some clarity as the team preps for next week's game against Florida. Georgia 27, Mississippi State 7.

No. 25 Texas A&M at Oklahoma State, 7 p.m.

Dennis Franchione's hot seat got cooler for one week after the Aggies beat Missouri for their first quality win of the season. His team needs to refocus quickly because a loss in Stillwater will erase the goodwill earned last week. Oklahoma State 31, Texas A&M 30.

Last week's record: 14-6 (9-10)

Season record: 118-25 (51-66-2)