Bowl Analysis...

[Jim Johnson]

First, while it seems nearly certain that USF will get to be a bowl eligible team... I agree that its premature to talk about USF and the BCS... but I think a quick analysis can show us how the 56 slots could break down.

USF needs to focus on Cincinnati this weekend -- a mid challenge since Cincinnati will be playing for a bowl game themselves.

This post is a broad look at all I-A conferences and bowl slots.

---

ACC: 6 Slots -- 7 Eligible Teams

Eligible: Va Tech, FSU, Miami, Boston College, GA Tech, UVa, & Clemson

1 Win & In: Maryland (vs BC, @ NC St)

2 Wins & In: NC State (vs Mid TN St, vs MD), UNC (vs Duke, @ Va Tech)

Out: Duke, Wake

1 Loss & Out: NC State, UNC

Big 12: 8 Slots -- 7 Eligible Teams

Eligible: Texas, Texas Tech, Colorado, Mizzou, Neb, Okla, & iowa St

1 Win & In: Texas A&M (vs Texas), Kansas (vs Iowa St)

2 Wins & In: Okla State (vs Baylor, vs Okla)

Out:  

1 Loss & Out: Texas A&M (vs Texas), Kansas (vs Iowa St), Okla State (vs Baylor, vs Okla)

Big East: 4 Slots - 3 Eligible Teams

Eligible: WVU, Rutgers, Louisville

1 Win & In: USF (vs Cincy, @ U Conn, vs WVU), Pitt (@ WVU)

2 Wins & In: U Conn (vs USF, vs Louisville), Cincy (@ USF, @ Rutgers)

Out: Syracuse

1 Loss & Out:  Pitt, Cincy, U Conn

Big 10: 7 Slots - 7 Eligible Teams

Eligible: Penn St, Wisconsin, Ohio St, Mich, NWestern, Iowa, Minnesota

1 Win & In: Mich St (vs Penn St)

Out: Illinois, Purdue, Indiana

1 Loss & Out: Mich St

Pac 10: 6 Slots - 4 Eligible Teams

Eligible: USC, UCLA, Oregon, & Cal

1 Win & In:  AZ State (vs AZ), Oregon State (@ Oregon), Stanford (vs Cal, vs Notre Dame)

Out: Arizona, Washington, Washington State

1 Loss & Out:  AZ State, Oregon State

SEC: 8 Slots - 6 Eligible Teams

Eligible: Bama, UGa, Florida, Auburn, LSU, South Car

1 Win & In:

2 Wins & In: Tennessee (vs Vandy, @ KY)

Out: Miss St, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Kentucky

1 Loss & Out: Tennessee

C-USA: 5 Slots - 3 Eligible Teams

Eligible: UTEP, UCF, Tulsa

1 Win & In: So Miss (vs Memphis, vs Tulane), Houston (vs SMU, vs Rice)

2 Wins & In: Memphis (@ USM, vs Marshall), Marshall (vs ECU, @ Memphis), UAB (@UTEP, vs ECU)

Out: SMU, Rice, Tulane, ECU

1 Loss & Out: Memphis, Marshall, UAB

Mtn West: 3 Slots - 3 Eligible Teams

Eligible: TCU, BYU, New Mexico

1 Win & In: Colo St (@UNLV), Utah (@ BYU)

Out: San Diego St, UNLV, Air Force, Wyoming

1 Loss & Out: Colorado St, Utah

Mid-Amer: 2 Slots - 3 Eligible Teams

Eligible: Toledo, Miami, West Mich

1 Win & In: Cent Mich (@ Ball St), Bowling Green (@ Miami OH, vs Toledo), No Ill (@ Toledo, vs West Mich)

2 Wins & In: Ohio (@ Akron, vs Miami OH), Akron (vs Ohio, vs Kent St)

Out: Ball St, Kent St, Buffalo, East Mich

WAC: 2 Slots - 4 Eligible Teams

Eligible: Fresno St, Boise St, LA Tech, Nevada

Out: Idaho, San Jose St, New Mex St, Hawaii, Utah St

Sun Belt: 1 Slot - 0 Eligible Teams*

Eligible:  

1 Win & In:  Ark St (@ Army, vs No Texas), LA Laf (@ LA Mon)

2 Wins & In: LA Mon (@ No Texas, vs LA Laf)

3 Wins & In: Mid TN St (@ NC State, @ Troy, @ FAU?)

Out: FAU, FIU, Troy, No Texas

1 Loss & Out: LA Laf, LA Mon, Mid TN St

* Conference Champ Automatically Goes, Eligible Or Not

Indy: 4 At-Large Slots*

Eligible: Notre Dame

1 Win & In: Navy

Out: Army, Temple

*At Large Slots: Two in BCS, Poinsettia Bowl, Liberty Bowl

Projected (by me) number of open slots / extra teams:

ACC = 0 / 1-2

Big 12 = 0-1/ 0-1

Big East = 0 / 0-1

Big 10 = 0 / 0-1

Pac 10 = 0-2/

SEC = 1-2 / 0

MWC = 0 / 1-3

MAC = 0 / 1-4

WAC = 0 / 2

SB = 0 / 0-1

AT LARGE = 2-4 / 2

---

If the Big East has FIVE bowl eligible teams, and USF does not win out, it is possible that USF could be the last choice given the uncertainty of the traveling support for USF. (We may think that USF will travel well, but we have no hard numbers to support our beliefs).

Thus, we will need to look at what other possible games USF could go to...

Without looking at the BCS, there will probably be open slots for the Big 12, Pac 10 and SEC bowls.  The following bowls would have to pick from among the extra teams:

Three are guaranteed open right now:

- Liberty Bowl (At Large)

- Poinsettia Bowl (At Large)

- Houston Bowl (SEC)

These would be open if there are not enough teams:

- Ft Worth Bowl (Big 12) [if Kansas or Texas A&M is not eligible]

- Houston Bowl (Big 12) [if Kansas and Texas A&M are not eligible]

- Independence Bowl (SEC) [if TN is not eligible]

- Emerald Bowl (Pac 10) [if AZ St or Ore St is not eligible]

- Las Vegas Bowl (Pac 10) [if AZ St and Ore St are not eligible]

Now let's look at the possible BCS At Large Teams

- Va Tech (No more slots open if VT is selected)

- Notre Dame (No more slots open if ND is selected)

- Bama/Auburn/LSU [Music City (SEC) opens if TN is not eligible, Independence if TN is eligible]

- Ohio St [Motor City (Big 10) opens]

- Oregon [insight (Pac 10) opens if AZ St and OR St are not eligible, Las Vegas if AZ St or OR St is not eligible, Emerald if AZ St and OR St are eligible]

In all likelihood, Va Tech and Notre Dame are sitting in the drivers seats if they win out.

---

Errors corrected as noted in replies. Thank you.

[Rabbi Bull]

if Pitt needs 2 wins to be in and only have one game left, wouldn't that mean they are out already?

[pdiddybull32]

If we finish 2nd in Big east we are in Gator Bowl because dont they have to take BIG EAST # 2?

[USFFan]

Jim, I'm pretty sure USF is just 1 win and in...

Nice analysis, though.

USFFan

[HOTMello2005]

USf needs only 1 win vs. Cincy, UConn, and WVU to get bowl bid.  Need to win out to get BCS bid.

[Guest shawn ferrell]

The Gator gets to pick between the ND and a BE team.  As Many have found out to their dismay, It does not have to be the 2nd place BE team.

[Guest]

Here are the scenarios that I see ahead of us -- assume that USF wins at least one game to be eligible:

1 -- USF wins out:

 - Then we go to Atlanta on Jan 2nd

2 -- Notre Dame goes to the BCS, and only 4 Big East teams are eligible:

 - Then we probably go to Charlotte on Dec 31st, maybe Phoenix on December 27th with 2 wins and another Rutgers loss.

3 -- Notre Dame goes to the BCS, and more than 4 Big East teams are eligible (Pitt beats WVU):

 - Then we probably don't get a Big East bowl... Charlotte on Dec 31st would take Louisville, Phoenix on December 27th would take West Virginia (Pitt goes to the BCS in 4-way tie)... Either USF or Rutgers would be on the outside looking in and could end up in Las Vegas or San Diego on December 22nd, Ft Worth on December 23rd, Detroit on December 26th, San Francisco on December 29th, Nashville or Shreveport on December 30th, or Houston or Memphis on December 31st.

4 -- Notre Dame goes to the Gator Bowl, and only 4 Big East teams are eligible:

 - Then we might go to Charlotte on Dec 31st if Rutgers loses again and USF wins two, Phoenix on December 27th will take Louisville... USF could end up in Las Vegas or San Diego on December 22nd, Ft Worth on December 23rd, Detroit on December 26th, San Francisco on December 29th, Nashville or Shreveport on December 30th, or Houston or Memphis on December 31st.

5 -- Notre Dame goes to the Gator Bowl and more than 4 Big East teams are eligible (if Pitt beats WVU):

 - Then we probably don't get a Big East bowl... Charlotte on Dec 31st would take Louisville, Phoenix on December 27th would take West Virginia (Pitt goes to the BCS in 4-way tie)... USF and Rutgers both would be on the outside looking in and could end up in Las Vegas or San Diego on December 22nd, Ft Worth on December 23rd, Detroit on December 26th, San Francisco on December 29th, Nashville or Shreveport on December 30th, or Houston or Memphis on December 31st.

A lot depends on who are selected to be the two BCS at large teams -- which we won't know until December 4th.

I hope this helps a little bit.

[Velcro]

Jim,

on scenario #3, if ND goes BCS, and Pitt beats wvu... that gives 5 bowl eligible teams for 4 Big East bowls..

how would usf AND rutgers be on the outside looking in?

Pitt BCS

LVille Gator

WVU Insight

Rutgers or USF - car care

are you assuming that one of UConn and Cincy beat us in addition to WVU?

[vankai]

isn't the Gator Bowl at RJS ?  if we go to the Gator Bowl - we'll have home field advantage so to say

[Velcro]

nope, it is in Jacksonville