You are obviously an astute better. FSU -14 is a sound bet period. FSU-21 is tough because I have seen many college and pro games where some td's in garbage time take an out of control game and make it look better by closing it within 3 td's.
I don't bet often. But the Rutgers game was just there for the taking. We can't force Ball State to punt. Imagine was that FSU offense will do to us. Those on here that think we have something in reserve and keep this close, I just don't see it. And, have we ever been shut out at home? Don't see us scoring more than twice. Unless special teams or defense score, and there is no evidence from the 1st 3 games that either will happen, USF gets no more than 14 but just as likely 6.
Doubt we will be scoring on a punt return now that Landi is back fielding punts again.