Hurricane Forecaster Releases 2008 Predictions

[BULLO12]

Hurricane season is less than two months away and it could be a rough one.

Three years after the historic hurricane season of 2005, it's hard to know what to make of storm predictions.

Since then, long-range forecasts have seemed to fall short. While seasons were active, only one hurricane made landfall in the United States over the past two years. So when noted forecaster Dr. William Gray from Colorado State released updated predictions for this year, it was with this reminder:

"We didn't do so well last couple of years, but that doesn't mean a new forecast for an active year coming up is not going to be valid," Gray said.

Gray and his team admit they haven't been perfect, but said they are using a new statistical model that, in retrospect, would have been much more accurate over the past seasons. With that model, they decided to increase their storm totals for this year.

"We're now calling for a very active season. We're calling for a total of 15 named storms, eight hurricanes, and four major or intense category 3, 4 or 5 hurricanes," hurricane forecaster Phil Klotzbach.

The team looked at conditions this year like warm seas and the potential for lower windshear allowing more storm development.

Still, the new head of the National Hurricane Center is cautious about long-range forecasts.

"Depending on the modeling scheme someone is using to produce that forecast, you're going to get a fairly wide range," NHC Director Bill Read said.

"Obviously, it only takes one storm over your particular county, you particular area to make it active hurricane season for you," Klotzbach said.

[mikebeau]

they call for a very active season every year.  But we haven't been having them.

predictions blow

[BULLfreak]

good thing we have that open home date at the end of the season...... oh wait we dont thanks TSA and ACC

[Velcro]

That prediction means we'll have an easy year...  it only scares me when they say we can relax.