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CHRIS DUFRESNE ON COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Pac-10 Is Surprise Ratings Star

Chris Dufresne

October 5, 2006

September was to the Pacific 10 Conference what packaged spinach was to your refrigerator  something you couldn't wait to get rid of.

The Pac-10 produced a major officials' controversy, several reputation-damaging performances against Southeastern Conference opponents and Stanford.

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So it came as no surprise this week when USA Today computer czar Jeff Sagarin released his weekly conference ratings and had the Pac-10 ranked …

… Last?

Nope.

First.

Sagarin rates the Big Ten second followed by the SEC, which is considered by many the nation's top conference this year.

The SEC has five teams ranked in the top 15 in this week's Associated Press poll; the Pac-10 has three in the top 16.

The rankings were not accidentally logged upside down, Sagarin confirmed in an e-mail.

And it's not just Sagarin. The Pac-10 also ranks first in Anderson & Hester's system and the Massey Ratings  that's half of the computers used in the Bowl Championship Series formula. One index rates the Big East No. 1, one doesn't list conference rankings, and another isn't revealing until the first BCS standings are released on Oct. 15.

"Certainly there is strength in numbers, perhaps even truth and justice," Pac-10 Commissioner Tom Hansen said jokingly. "I feel confident this ranking reflects the admiration of the manner in which Cal held down Tennessee."

Tennessee beat Cal, 35-18, so the commissioner has a sense of humor.

What pushed the Pac-10 over the top?

Maybe Arizona's losing by 42 points at Louisiana State?

Oregon State's coming up 28 points short against Boise State?

Cal's "statement" win against Portland State?

Stanford's sinking like an anchor against Navy?

Washington State's getting drubbed at Auburn, and then almost beating USC?

What might a 35-point loss by Stanford at Notre Dame this week do for Pac-10 credibility, secure it conference-of-the-year honors?

"I think most people's perceptions are based on the top one-two teams in each conference, and they don't consider the rest," Sagarin explained.

Sagarin's point is that you have to look at conference strength top to bottom. The Pac-10 has fewer lousy teams than the SEC, which is being dragged down by ankle weights Vanderbilt, Mississippi, Mississippi State and Kentucky.

The Pac-10 did score some nonconference points in September:

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USC routed Arkansas and soundly defeated Nebraska.

Washington is vastly improved.

The Pac-10 played a more challenging nonconference schedule than most conferences.

And although the Pac-10 had to formally apologize for Oregon's 34-33 win over Oklahoma, it was a quality win in Sagarin's computer.

"I have the game recorded as Oregon 34, Oklahoma 33," he wrote.

SEC schedule strength lurks as a potentially explosive issue for the BCS. Two years ago, the SEC was outraged when undefeated Auburn finished third in the BCS behind USC and Oklahoma.

SEC Commissioner Mike Slive has all but vowed this could not happen again in a civilized society. But right now Auburn is ranked No. 3 in both BCS human polls, behind Ohio State and USC. Sagarin has Auburn ranked eighth.

"In my opinion, the Southeastern Conference is the No. 1 college football conference in the nation," SEC Associate Commissioner Charles Bloom said. "This season we have the highest nonconference winning percentage in the nation and the most teams ranked in national polls. Computer rankings include a lot of data that changes from week to week. At the end of the season, I feel the SEC should be ranked as the nation's top conference."

The SEC is in a difficult position because it recently inherited administration of the BCS  rotated every two years among all BCS conferences except the Pac-10 and Big Ten.

Slive not only is SEC commissioner this year and next, he's the BCS coordinator, which puts him in the prickly position of fighting for the SEC as he defends a system that could potentially keep one of his schools out of the title game … again.

Bloom, it should be noted, when he worked under former SEC commissioner Roy Kramer, in 1998 helped identify and select the rankings system utilized in the BCS formula.

Sagarin is aware most SEC fans can read.

"Not too much heat yet from anyone," Sagarin wrote, "but I'm sure that's simply the proverbial lull before the storm."

Blitz Package

•  Oregon at California is not just the best game in the Pac-10 this week, it's almost a family reunion. Cal Coach Jeff Tedford, who coached at Oregon from 1998 through 2001, has loaded his program with former Ducks coaches and administrators. Included are assistant coaches Bob Gregory, Dan Ferrigno and Bob Foster; strength coach John Krasinski, video coordinator Matt Fox, equipment manager Ed Garland, assistant equipment manager Brett Flores and recruiting assistant Kevin Parker.

Last summer, Cal also recruited fundraiser Jim Bartko, who in 17 years at Oregon helped raise more than $150 million for the program.

•  Let the lobbying begin. Western Athletic Conference Commissioner Karl Benson said this week that he is confident a 12-0 Boise State team would earn automatic qualification  and a $14-million paycheck  into a BCS bowl game. "It's easily attainable," Benson said.

We'll see. This year, a team from a non-BCS conference needs to finish in the top 12 in the final BCS standings, whereas before it had to finish in the top six. In 2004, the year Utah earned an automatic bid by finishing sixth, 11-0 Boise State finished No. 9.

"The system's in place; it was tweaked this year," Benson said. "I have confidence the system will reward a 12-0 team."

The potential problem: Boise State moved up only one spot, from No. 22 to No. 21, in the USA Today coaches' poll after a 36-3 win over Utah. The combined record of Boise State's seven remaining opponents is 12-19.

ADVERTISEMENT•  Texas versus Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl on Saturday lacks the luster it has had in recent years  when national titles figured into the equation  but it's still important in this sense: The loser of the game featuring one-loss schools probably will be eliminated from BCS-bowl consideration.

This would be even more interesting if a second loss was handed to Oklahoma, which rightly believes it should have won the disputed game at Oregon on Sept. 16. Texas won last year after losing five straight in the series.

Not much bulletin board material to report. The closest thing we could find is Texas defensive end Brian Robison's saying that Oklahoma is "probably one of the biggest rivalries that we have."

Probably?

•  A team to watch the next two weeks is Michigan State. The Spartans are coming off consecutive fiascoes, blowing a double-digit lead to Notre Dame and then losing last week to lowly Illinois. But the Spartans can still have plenty to say about the Big Ten race. They play at Michigan this week and then play host to Ohio State.

Said beleaguered Michigan State Coach John L. Smith: "We're good enough to win every game on our schedule; we're good enough to lose every game on our schedule."

For Michigan, Smith is playing a familiar card: "They come here to play Michigan," he said of his players. "Let's be honest, those guys down the road didn't care about them. Didn't recruit them. So let's go play them. Show 'em that we're good."

•  Checking on Chuck. First-year San Diego State Coach Chuck Long is off to an 0-4 start and has lost quarterback Kevin O'Connell (thumb) and backup Darren Mougey (shoulder) to injuries. This leaves Long no choice but to start Kevin Craft this week against Brigham Young. Craft is the son of former Aztecs coach Tom Craft, who was fired last season and replaced by Long.

•  Believe it or not. The top quarterback in the Pac-10 this year, according to NCAA statistics, is the same Nate Longshore who looked helpless in Cal's season opener at Tennessee. Longshore, rated seventh nationally in pass efficiency, is the only Pac-10 quarterback rated in the top 30. USC's John David Booty is No. 33.

•  For what it's worth: Georgia leads the nation in scoring defense, giving up only 6.8 points per game. The schools Georgia has mostly kept out of the end zone have been Western Kentucky, South Carolina, Alabama Birmingham, Colorado and Mississippi. Georgia has given up only three touchdowns in five games. Temple has given up 28

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sec has 4 of the worst teams in usa

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FOUR GAMES TO WATCH

Peter Yoon

October 5, 2006

No. 7 TEXAS (4-1)

vs. No. 14 OKLAHOMA (3-1)

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•  Kickoff: Saturday, 12:30 p.m. PDT, at the Cotton Bowl, Dallas

•  TV: Channel 7

•  Line: Texas by 4 1/2 .

•  Texas update: The Longhorns won the national title last year, but some of the Texas faithful might say the victory over Oklahoma was more important. It ended a five-game Oklahoma win streak in the intense, border-state rivalry. The Longhorns are averaging 41.6 points a game  fourth in the nation  but they scored only seven against Ohio State, their only ranked opponent to date. Texas has won a conference-record 16 consecutive Big 12 games.

•  Oklahoma update: Sooners fans say their team should still be in the national title hunt after getting cheated out of a victory at Oregon. But lost in the controversy was a defense that gave up 501 yards to the Ducks. Oklahoma gives up an average of 321 yards a game, which puts extra pressure on Heisman Trophy candidate Adrian Peterson to control the ball. He is fifth in Division I-A with 643 rushing yards.

•  Story line: This is the first time since 1999 that both teams have entered the Red River Rivalry with a loss, so there are no national title implications, but it's one of the longest-running rivalry games in the nation (101 years) and no state has more football pride than these two.

•  The pick: Texas. The Longhorns give up an average of 36.6 rushing yards a game and should be able to limit Peterson.

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No. 9 LOUISIANA STATE (4-1)

at No. 5 FLORIDA (5-0)

•  Kickoff: Saturday, 12:30 p.m. PDT

•  TV: Channel 2

•  Line: Pick.

•  Louisiana State update: The Tigers have the top defense in the nation, giving up an average of only 193.4 yards a game, and are second in scoring defense at 7.4 points a game. A strong pass rush has produced 19 sacks and helped limit opponents to 124.2 passing yards a game. On offense, quarterback JaMarcus Russell, who has passed for 1,246 yards and 10 touchdowns, leads a unit that averages 38 points.

•  Florida update: The Gators are entering one of the toughest stretches of games in the nation, with No. 2 Auburn and No. 10 Georgia to follow. Chris Leak has passed for 1,240 yards and 14 touchdowns, but DeShawn Wynn, who has run for a team-high 354 yards, has a sprained knee and might not play. Florida's defense ranks fourth nationally in scoring average (9.4 points) and rushing defense (50.2 yards).

•  Story line: If Florida gets through its next three games unbeaten, the Gators will state a legitimate case to play in the BCS championship game. Despite a conference loss to No. 2 Auburn, LSU, which has defeated the Gators in three of their last four meetings, still has SEC title hopes.

•  The pick: Florida. It's an even matchup featuring two of the nation's top quarterbacks  each facing one of the nation's top defenses. It comes down to home-Swamp advantage.

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No. 13 TENNESSEE (4-1)

at No. 10 GEORGIA (5-0)

•  Kickoff: Saturday, 4:45 p.m. PDT

•  TV: ESPN

•  Line: Tennessee by 2 1/2 .

•  Tennessee update: Quarterback Erik Ainge has the Tennessee offense in high gear. He has passed for 1,389 yards and 12 touchdowns  both among the top 10 in the nation. Robert Meachem leads the nation with 577 receiving yards. This is the third game against a top-10 team for the Volunteers, who defeated then-No. 9 California in Week 1 and lost to then-No. 7 Florida in Week 3.

•  Georgia update: The Bulldogs expect to get quarterback Joe Tereshinski back from an ankle injury, which is good news for an offense that is sputtering. With freshmen Matt Stafford and Joe Cox splitting time, the Bulldogs eked out victories over Colorado (0-5) and Mississippi (1-4) the last two weeks  scoring only 14 points against each. Georgia's defense has more than made up for the offensive shortcomings, however, holding opponents to a nation-leading 6.8 points a game.

•  Story line: Georgia needs a win to justify its top-10 legitimacy, which has been questioned the last two weeks. Tennessee already has an SEC East loss, so the Volunteers must win to keep alive hopes of a conference title. Georgia has won four of the last five meetings.

•  The pick: Tennessee. Georgia's defense has been impressive, but it has not yet faced an offense as explosive as Tennessee's.

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No. 11 OREGON (4-0)

at No. 16 CALIFORNIA (4-1)

•  Kickoff: Saturday, 5 p.m.

•  TV: Channel 7.

•  Line: California by 5.

•  Oregon update: Quarterback Dennis Dixon and running back Jonathan Stewart lead a prolific offense that averages 40.3 points, 497 total yards and 227.5 rushing yards  all among the nation's top 10. The Ducks continue to draw criticism for their referee-assisted 34-33 victory over Oklahoma, so they would like nothing more than to validate that victory with another win over a ranked opponent.

•  California update: Since a 35-18 loss to Tennessee in Week 1, the Golden Bears have been on a roll. They've averaged 43.5 points their last four games  a total that would be second in the nation. As it is, their 38.4 average is eighth. Nate Longshore has passed for 1,221 yards and 14 touchdowns and running back Marshawn Lynch has rushed for 555 yards and seven touchdowns, giving Cal one of the most prolific offensive duos in the nation.

•  Story line: Both teams have November dates with USC, so the winner of this game has the best chance to end the Trojans' stronghold in the Pacific 10.

•  The pick: California. A game with this much offense is likely to come down to a late game-breaking play and Golden Bears receiver/punt returner DeSean Jackson might be the best playmaker in the nation.

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CHRIS DUFRESNE / ON COLLEGE FOOTBALL

At This Rate, No. 2 May Be One Who Cries Harder

Chris Dufresne

October 9, 2006

Break out the sandwich boards because it is election season in college football.

From the USC camp: "Stamp out Swamp Thing!"

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From Florida's headquarters: "USC is all about Pete … Moss."

The race is on, not for No. 1, but for No. 2.

This much we know: Ohio State, if it wins out, will play for the national title. The coronation would come Nov. 18 with a home win against Michigan, after which the Buckeyes would take 51 days off before the Jan. 8 title game in Phoenix's outskirts.

The fight for No. 2, though, might produce a call from Jerry Springer's talent booker.

USC, taken to the Alex Brink by Washington State last week and then forced to pull out a clockwork-orange win against Washington, held on to the No. 2 spot Sunday in both the Harris and USA Today polls.

Associated Press voters, responding to then-No. 2 Auburn's loss, jumped Florida from No. 5 to No. 2, catapulting the Gators over USC and West Virginia.

The AP, though, is no longer a part of the Bowl Championship Series formula, so what does any of that mean?

Expect the shout-a-thon to get louder as USC and Florida keep winning.

Also take careful note of the agendas out there.

•  CBS televises the Southeastern Conference, so from now until the last SEC team loses four times, expect a steady diet of on-air campaigning on behalf of the conference for which it sells commercial time.

CBS is good at this. Remember 1997, when No. 1 Michigan thought it had clinched both shares of the national title by winning the Rose Bowl only to watch CBS, which had Tennessee vs. No. 2 Nebraska, turn the Orange Bowl into a national title game by flag-waving for Tom Osborne's final team?

•  ABC: It's confusing, we know, but just remember the greatest team of all time and this year's Heisman Trophy winner are not always involved in the game Brent Musburger is announcing.

•  Fox cable: It leans left (coast) because of its affiliation with the Pacific 10, but may not be reaching enough hotel rooms east of the Mississippi to affect USC's Southern Strategy.

•  NBC: It's the network of Notre Dame, so look out if the No. 2 spot becomes a battle of one-loss teams and one of them is coached by Charlie Weis.

•  ESPN: The straw that stirs the drink. When Kirk and Lee say Florida is the second-best team on any given Saturday night, it can sometimes lead to Florida's jumping over two undefeated teams in the next day's AP poll.

The potential USC-Florida argument could be as dicey as any we've seen.

How could you play the weak-schedule card against USC if the Trojans went 12-0 with nonconference wins over Arkansas (4-1), Nebraska (5-1) and Notre Dame (5-1) and a sweep of the conference that last week was ranked No. 1 by Jeff Sagarin's computer?

How could you deny 13-0 Florida if the Gators ran the table in the SEC, beat Florida State, then earned a bonus cookie by winning the SEC title game

There will be strong arguments on both sides  and don't be surprised if Lee Corso argues both of them.

Of course, USC could lose to Arizona State next week and Florida could lose at Auburn, and then we'd have to welcome in West Virginia.

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Best advice for all coaches and players involved? Just shut up and play.

Leave October politics to the experts and the sportswriters.

It wasn't long ago that Texas Christian Coach Gary Patterson, after a rousing 12-3 win over Texas Tech, announced he was tired of his program's being treated like "a stepchild."

TCU has lost two games since  in the state of Utah.

Auburn fretted about being shut of the BCS again when it should have been worried about being shut out by Arkansas.

Just play. There will come a time when pleading your case will get you somewhere. Who could forget two years ago, in the heat of the Texas-California Rose Bowl debate, when Mack Brown saved his best stump speech for last?

The first BCS standings will be released next Sunday.

Weekend Wrap

•  Moveon.org: Losses by Oklahoma and Oregon greatly diminish the chance that last month's officiating fiasco in Eugene will have a major impact on the BCS.

•  Recovery programs. Lose your first game and the season's over? It happens to some teams, but not to California, Arkansas and Georgia Tech. All three have recovered from toe stubs to make life miserable for others.

Cal has scored 40 or more points in five straight wins since losing to Tennessee, and has climbed back to No. 11 in both BCS polls after starting the pre-season at No. 9.

Arkansas looked hapless in a 50-14 loss to USC but has since won four games, including Saturday's shocker at Auburn. With the win, Arkansas cracked the top 25, zooming all the way to No. 17 in the AP. Georgia Tech, which lost its home opener to Notre Dame, has won five straight and is posting as high as No. 13.

Cal Coach Jeff Tedford said the Tennessee loss may have actually been a wake-up call. "At Tennessee, anything that could have gone wrong did," Tedford said. "But that wasn't really us out there. Our kids never lost their concentration or focus. They always knew what they were capable of."

•  More on Cal: Losing its first game may have been a good thing. The Bears lost their first game each of the last two times they won the conference championship, in 1975 and 1958.

•  Yuck department: Stanford is off to its first 0-6 start since 1983. In six losses, the Cardinal has been outscored, 218 to 73. Stanford has scored nine touchdowns to its opponents' 28. The Cardinal has been outscored 117 to 23 in the second half. San Diego State (0-5) matched its worst start in school history; Duke extended its nation-leading losing streak to 13 games.

•  Good when they're ahead. The Missouri Tigers, 6-0 after beating Texas A&M, have not trailed this season.