bad weather for derby today

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If the 130th Kentucky Derby came with a slogan, it might be, "Nobody knows anything." One of the most inscrutable fields assembled in years for America's greatest horse race not only has no discernible favorite, but thunderstorms, heavy winds and lightning are expected to fall in the vicinity of Churchill Downs on Saturday afternoon, further muddling the mess.

 

Race fans might want to check their pick's bloodlines for proven success over a sloppy track.

"I'm going to be very honest: I have no clue, weather-wise, how it will affect him," trainer Patrick Biancone said of his speedy and tenacious colt Lion Heart. "At a quarter to six, I'm going to pass the Olympic flame to [jockey] Mike Smith and leave it up to him, then take it back win or lose."

Two horses scratched from the Derby field Friday, including Bob Baffert's Wimbledon, the Louisiana Derby winner who had lured the services of Jerry Bailey, the leading rider in the country. Baffert, a three-time Derby winner, discovered a small amount of swelling on the outside of Wimbledon's left front leg near the tendon and chose not to risk running.

"He wasn't lame or anything on it, but there is [a knot] about the size of a dime there," Baffert said. "These things sometimes may not be that bad. I don't think it's a career-ending injury, but it's enough that we don't feel comfortable about taking him out there and running him this weekend."

The other colt, long-shot St Averil, suffers from tender front hooves, and trainer Rafael Becerra decided to take him out.

The defections leave a field of 18 3-year-olds to run in the 11/4-mile race, marking the first time since 1980 that neither Baffert nor Wayne Lukas, a four-time winner, haven't participated.

The departure of the always-dangerous Baffert clarified nothing. The Derby's wide-open nature was reflected by the fact that Borrego, a colt who has won a maiden race and an optional claiming event, was one of the early favorites Friday and was getting odds of only 9-1 when the windows closed.

Track line-maker Mike Battaglia had listed Borrego, trained by Beau Greely, at 20-1. The Cliff's Edge, whom Battaglia expected to be the betting favorite, stood virtually ignored at 8-1. Action This Day, the 2002 champion juvenile, was 42-1. Castledale, the Santa Anita Derby winner, sat dead on the board at 27-1.

With the scratches, the two gate positions closest to the rail will be left empty, giving inside horses Limehouse, Song of the Sword and Lion Heart breathing room heading into the first turn.

They'll need it. With Lion Heart expected to go to the front from the inside, and Smarty Jones, Pollard's Vision and Quintons Gold Rush certain to show speed from the auxiliary gate, the potential for mayhem exists as the inexperienced 3-year-olds seek to establish position into the first turn.

"It's like the Indy 500, that first 20 seconds," Baffert said Thursday morning. "There's a lot of bumping."

The Derby is the first time most of these horses will attempt to negotiate 11/4 miles. Consequently, there are often three phases to the race -- the first, in which speed horses establish position, followed by the stalkers who take over somewhere on the backside, and finally, if the speed doesn't hold, the closers make their move from far back with protracted gallops.

Hall of Fame trainer Bobby Frankel, whose Master David figures to sit in the second flight of runners, said The Cliff's Edge must be considered the favorite, but he didn't count out his own charge or the speed horses.

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"Going in, The Cliff's Edge looks like the one to beat, but I don't know how this race is going to be run," said Frankel, whose Empire Maker and Peace Rules ran second and third last year to Funny Cide in the Derby. "I can see Lion Heart getting out and going on the lead. This is a very easy track to get a mile and a quarter on. I don't know why."

 

Frankel might have been thinking of the two most recent Derbys, in which Funny Cide came from a close-up third to win and War Emblem set a moderate pace and went wire-to-wire two years ago. The last time the race was contested over a sloppy track, Go for Gin won in 1994 after taking over entering the backstretch.

Six of the entrants already have won races on a wet track, including Imperialism, who has done it twice. If the former claiming runner wins, trainer Kristin Mulhall, 21, would not only become the youngest in history to win the race, but the first woman as well.

John Servis, who trains undefeated Smarty Jones, was one of the few Derby trainers out and about on the backstretch this morning. He welcomed the prospect of a wet track for his Philadelphia Park-based horse.

"It doesn't bother me," Servis said. "He ran in the mud in the Arkansas Derby."

If The Cliff's Edge is going to win, he might have to come from far back to do it. His powerful run to victory in the Blue Grass Stakes came from 13 lengths off the pace and produced the highest last-race speed figure in the field.

His trainer, Nick Zito, who also has fallen star Birdstone in the field, is proven at the Derby, having already won with Strike the Gold and Go For Gin. Tomorrow will be his 10th Derby, and it continues to be the one race he lives to win.

"It gets bigger every year," Zito said out in front of his barn. "It's part of Americana. The Indy 500, the Super Bowl -- whatever the big events are in America this ranks right up there."