qb or not

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    The thing is this -- even in vintage quarterback years there are bottles that taste of vinegar when they’re opened. Sommeliers and scouts sometimes are guilty of the same mistakes in bad judgment. It can ruin a meal. It can leave a franchise in ruins.

And the thing also is this, in the business of drafting quarterbacks; the truth is no one really knows. They may think they do. They may say they do. But history says they don’t.

A few days ago, I e-mailed a retired football scholar to tell him what I was writing about and to get his insights on the subject. He replied, “Here’s a thought: Why don’t the teams send you and me all the money they spend on quarterback scouting and we’ll divide the money, then flip a coin and tell them who to choose. We could do just as well, and with a whole lot less trouble.â€Â

For years I went to New York for the NFL Draft, writing about the scene in the back-stage Green Room for NFL publications and NFL.com. I was there in 1999.

The Green Room in Madison Square Garden is a frantic scene as high noon approaches with players and their families and agents and hangers-on jammed into a small trapezoid-shaped room ringed with buffet tables and TV monitors 50 feet from where Paul Tagliabue announces the first-round draft choices.

 

On that Saturday in April in 1999, the Green Room held four quarterbacks (Tim Couch of Kentucky, Donovan McNabb of Syracuse, Akili Smith of Oregon, and Daunte Culpepper of Central Florida), plus two running backs (Edgerrin James of Miami and Ricky Williams of Texas), and one defensive back (Champ Bailey of Georgia).

The Cleveland Browns were about to re-emerge upon the NFL scene after a three-year hiatus (the original franchise had skipped town in favor of Baltimore in 1996) and the new team was looking for its Quarterback of the Future. The Browns agonized and wrung their collective hands, then narrowed their choices to two in the weeks before the draft: Tim Couch and Akili Smith. (Donovan McNabb and Daunte Culpepper failed to make their final cut.) A workout in Kentucky a few days before the draft made up the Browns’ minds. Couch was signed to a multi-year, multi-million-dollar contract on the eve of the draft.

Philadelphia drafted second. The Eagles chose McNabb, overruling strong Philadelphia fan sentiment that favored Ricky Williams.

Cincinnati drafted third. The Bengals chose Smith. Leigh Steinberg, his agent, confided to me, "Mark my words: This is the superstar of this draft."

Indianapolis, which had traded running back Marshall Faulk to St. Louis, chose James fourth, and New Orleans grabbed Williams when then coach Mike Ditka memorably moved up to the fifth selection position after trading the Saints’ entire remaining draft to the Redskins in exchange for swapping places in the first round.

After that it went like this: 6. St. Louis, wide receiver Torry Holt of North Carolina State; 7. Washington, Bailey; 8. Arizona, wide receiver David Boston of Ohio State; 9. Detroit, linebacker Chris Claiborne of USC; 10. Baltimore, cornerback Chris McAlister of Arizona.

Only the Culpepper entourage remained in the Green Room and the tension was growing as others were chosen. A call from Minnesota coach Dennis Green brought smiles. The Vikings would make Culpepper -- at 6-foot-5 1/2 and 265 pounds the most amazing physical specimen of a quarterback I’ve ever seen -- the eleventh choice of the first round.

The Chicago Bears, the Vikings’ divisional rivals, followed with a quarterback choice of its own -- UCLA’s Cade McNown.

In the 68-year history of the draft, never had as many as five quarterbacks been taken in the first 12 choices. The 1983 draft had a record six quarterbacks chosen in the first round (more about that later here) but those came over 27 choices.

Five seasons after the quarterback class of 1999, the report cards are startling.

The No. 2 and No. 11 choices, McNabb and Culpepper, get A’s. They clearly are franchise quarterbacks.

The No. 1 choice, Couch, gets an Incomplete at best and a C at worst. The Browns have signed former 49er incumbent Jeff Garcia to a multi-year contract to be their new quarterback and there are strong reports that Couch may be traded to Green Bay, where he would be the heir apparent to Brett Favre.

The No. 3 and No. 12 choices, Smith and McNown, get F’s. Both were total busts and both are out of the game.

 

"Mark my words: (Akili Smith) is the superstar of this draft."

-Agent Leigh Steinberg  

 

I talked with a lot of personnel experts before the ’99 draft. A lot of them liked Smith and Couch. A lot of them weren’t as sure about McNabb and Culpepper. McNown was on no one’s short list and his high selection was a surprise (the Bears reportedly would have taken Culpepper if the Vikings hadn’t).

Gil Brandt, the longtime talent maestro for the Cowboys who now is the resident expert for NFL.com, was one of the people I consulted.

"If you remember, I loved Akili Smith," Brandt says. "Everyone who saw him at the East-West Game in January that year felt the same way. He put on a great show there and he was coming out of a pro system at Oregon... I don’t think any of us didn’t think he wasn‘t a 'can’t miss.' He was a smart kid... a nice kid, too. No one would have been surprised if the Browns had taken him No. 1 or the Eagles had taken him No. 2.â€Â

Then how could so many people have been so wrong?

"Five years later I don’t mean to suggest that I know all the answers to that,†Brandt says, "but I can take some pretty educated guesses. Some guys when they get the big money they just lose their hunger. Akili got his $11 million and that seemed to take away his incentive.â€Â

But the good quarterbacks of the past and the present almost always have been the highest paid players in the game. That hasn’t always chilled their competitive fires.

 

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"They’re all different," Brandt says. "But the one thing the superior quarterbacks -- the ones who make it -- have in common is they have good work habits. They work hard. They prepare. They are dedicated to the game. They have their priorities in order... always. They watch the game tapes breakdowns again instead of playing golf. They study the game plan instead of making a public appearance. They simply make the good choices.

"McNabb and Culpepper have great work habits... great physical skills, too, of course. But then so did those other guys -- and they aren’t going to Pro Bowls. The ultimate preparer today is Peyton Manning [of the Colts]. Now and then you might out-play him but you will never out-work him. And he makes the big-time money. See, to guys like that, pride is everything."

In this yin/yang of quarterbacks, Manning, of Tennessee, was the No. 1 selection of the 1998 draft. The Colts knew whom they wanted but so did the Chargers, who made a trade with Arizona to get the draft’s No. 2 choice, which they used to take quarterback Ryan Leaf of Washington State.

Believe it or not, at the time a lot of people thought it was the Chargers who had snared the superstar of tomorrow. Brandt was among them.

"I liked Manning a lot,†Brandt says, "but I thought Leaf had the stronger arm, the better body, the superior skills. I was not alone. A lot of people coveted Leaf,â€Â

Report card: Manning A+. Leaf F. In work habits the difference was immeasurable.

In 1993, the quarterback argument was over Drew Bledsoe of Washington State and Rick Mirer of Notre Dame. The Patriots took Bledsoe with the No. 1 choice. The Seahawks drafted Mirer with the No. 2 pick (would Mirer be the new Montana?).

Report card after 11 NFL seasons: Bledsoe A, Mirer C- (and only because he had a good rookie season; he later became a journeyman).

Did we say yin/yang? The quarterback class of 1983 is the ultimate example.

Six were chosen. Two of them are in the Hall of Fame and a third will join them in 2005. The other three have to pay their way in, just like the rest of us. And the latter three all were drafted before Dan Marino’s name was called.

The Baltimore Colts chose John Elway of Stanford No. 1 (then traded him to Denver (a true tale of two cities). Kansas City took Todd Blackledge of Penn State No. 7 (and did not trade him)... Buffalo took Jim Kelly of Miami No. 14... New England took Tony Eason of Illinois No. 15... the New York Jets took Ken O’Brien of California-Davis No. 24... and Miami took Marino of Pittsburgh No. 27.

 

Kelly was elected to the Hall of Fame in 2002. Elway was voted in this year. Marino will make it a threesome in 2005.

As the 2004 draft approaches, the scouts’ and personnel people’s ballot boxes have been tabulated on this year’s quarterback class.

Proving that you can’t beat good bloodlines, Eli Manning of Mississippi, brother of Peyton and son of Archie, coull be the No. 1 choice. Ben Roethisberger of Miami (Ohio) is liked by lot of people and will go not long after Eli. Later in the first round someone will take Phillip Rivers of North Carolina State and soon after that -- maybe late first round or early second round -- someone will select J.P. Losman of Tulane.

But who’ll be around to get the good grades a few years from now is another matter indeed.

Chances are it will be whoever has good work habits.

Chances are it will be whoever doesn’t just take the money and run.