I'll offer my two cents (FYI, TL;DR):
First, I'm not terribly bummed about us now essentially being locked out of the ACC. Whenever I thought of the scenarios that would lead to us being invited to the ACC, I was reminded of the Groucho Marx line, "I don't want to belong to any club that will accept people like me as a member."
For us to have gotten into the ACC would have required a mass exodus of several of the teams that make that league part of the P5 now. Our acceptance would coincide with the P5 becoming the P4, sans ACC. Our level of competition would have been similar to what we had in the BE, and the TV contract would almost certainly be renegotiated lower - maybe more than we're getting now, but nowhere near what the P4 get.
I was always of the opinion that getting into the Big 12 was our best bet at moving up and still being relevant, since us being invited didn't require the conference to blow up first. The rumors about the Big 12 wanting to get Florida teams may be just that - rumors - but they do make some sense. And if that is the case, USF and UCF are pretty much the only games left in town.
There are two separate issues I see being debated in this thread right now:
1. Whether or not the Big 12 wants to expand beyond 10 members and get a CCG.
2. If the Big 12 wants to expand, whether we will be at the top of the list.
I think the first point is valid. They've said they don't want to expand (of course they did), but the reasons to go to 12 are pretty compelling.
If they stand pat at 10, then it looks like realignment comes to a halt for the time being. I don't think this is the end of the world for us. In the meantime, we can improve our appeal to any league that may eventually come calling. We can start by winning a few conference championships, for one. True, winning isn't likely the #1 factor in who gets selected for realignment, but it does feed several factors that certainly are considered - attendance, fan base, revenue, TV sets, etc. If we had the attendance and fan enthusiasm that we did for WVU in 07 consistently, can you really argue that we wouldn't be a more attractive candidate? That's what winning does for us.
If the Big 12 does decide to expand, Florida does look like an obvious place to look. Hopefully we still have a leg up on UCF, in case they were to decide they only want one school in Florida.
Regardless, the (almost) worst-case scenario for us is that we get left in the AAC while the big boys go play. Not the end of times. The absolute worst case scenario is that the Big 12 decides to expand, they only want one Florida school, and they take UCF over us, while we get left behind and they go on to riches and glory. But if that were going to happen, it would have happened on December 21st last year, so I'm not sweating it.