BullyPulpit

NONE OF US CAN COUNT TO 12

Dilfer's Dragons: All Hot Air, No Fire!

I oddly find myself rooting for the old guard over the new teams. I know it should be irrelevant but I can't seem to get past it. Here's hoping Temple, Tulsa, and Navy put a hurting on their opposition, in addition to USF destroying the Dilfer Dragons.

If the performance this season continues and carries over into next year, he might be gone in two years....three years tops.

I love the consistency that we have found with the depth chart. Very little change from week-to-week.

They would be more gassed and prone to injury if we weren't converting those 4th downs. The entire energy on this team is different. It feels like the Leavitt days where we were viewed as overachievers.

Hopefully the offense will get to the efficient to the point where 4th down is not as necessary but as things are, we need to have it in our arsenal. We still don't have a true, game breaker on offense. We have decent role players who have shown up each week. Our defense is better served by us going for it on 4th and short. A 3 and out with this offense could take less than 30 seconds of game time. While we are deeper than we have been in the past, we aren't deep enough to be in a situation where our defense is being exposed to multiple long, physical drives in a row with no reprieve.

Jinx? I personally do not believe that I have enough power to cosmically impact USF's on-field results by mentioning (the very real) possibility of a bowl game. For anyone not preferring to play Florida or Auburn...

That might be a little bit too risky for my taste, but it would also depend on the context of the situation. We have gone for it on 4th down more than any other team in the nation. I like the aggressive approach. I wish the play calling was a little bit better at times, but this is a results based game and, so far, the results have been good enough.

The biggest defensive stats are the TFLs (last year 5.2 per game (#89), this year 8.2 per game (#9)) and, even more importantly, our 3rd down defense. Last season we were #129 (out of 130) allowing a 50.3% conversion rate. This year we are 33rd in the nation allowing 33.8%. That is a massive improvement and absolutely needed given the way we run our offense. So long as the 3rd down defense continues to hold, this team will continue to win.

There is an argument to be made about mindset. He believes that his offense will get the yard or two and, if we don't, that the defense will hold the other team off. As a player, you have to get juiced when your coach believes in you like that. I was watching the Jets-KC game last night and the Jets had momentum and decided to kick a 50+ yard FG on a 4th and short. That was a moment where, if you believe in your team, you go for it. It matters to the players. I'm not saying I agree or disagree with the decision and hindsight is always 20/20, but if aggression and fearlessness is going to be this team's identity, we all need to support and embrace it.

GASO is a solid team, likely somewhere in the top 50. It's pretty simple though. If we don't beat a team like UAB on the road, we haven't quite turned the corner. If we can win and look good doing it the next three games, it sets up a VERY intriguing matchup again Memphis.

I think we have a very good chance at getting a higher profile match because we are more of a name and story than most of the other G5s. We are also helped by our proximity to more desirable bowl games. ESPN is going for ratings and ticket sales, so if we can get to 7+ wins we should be looking at a pretty solid bowl matchup. I don't believe for a second that we would be sent to the 68 Ventures Bowl against Louisiana.

It isn't a bias against USF, it is an algorithm that uses a variety of factors to come up with the predictions. Typically, these types of systems lag behind and they also fail to account for some intangible factors like the cohesion on the team and the belief in one another. I also think in this era of NIL and roster turnover that it is really hard for the formulas to accurately derive a baseline for each team, so the starting points are skewed. Keep in mind that USF just won on the road for the first time in 20 games, so the homefield advantage factor may be much higher for our opponents than it would normally be.

ESPN: 68 Ventures Bowl v. Louisiana OR Cure Bowl v. Appalachian State CBS: Boca Raton Bowl v. Mississippi State 247: Gasparilla Bowl v. Auburn CFN: Gasparilla Bowl v. Florida 4 out of 5 of these are pretty solid. Would love a shot at Florida or Auburn at Ray Jay!

I don't know that they are significantly better or worse. It seems to me that most teams in the AAC are pretty evenly matched. The key for this game and the Bulls is to show that we are one of the top 4 teams in the conference. A convincing road win against a UAB team that just played Georgia and Tulane tough will go a long way to that end. As for being "scared" of them....no chance in hell.

I think Brown came into this game dealing with a lower body injury. I have nothing to base that on other than the play calling and his cumbersome pocket presence this game.

That was 100% a hold that prevented the WR from getting to the ball.

Navy is a dirty team.

The advantage is that it shortens games and doesn't require skill, but rather toughness and discipline. Navy would get waxed if they relied on athleticism.

I love reading the emotional rollercoaster that is the live game thread. Navy is playing sloppy today!

They would actually get priority over all 5-7 teams. The first exception are teams that went 6-6, but one win is against an FCS team that didn't have enough scholarship players. The second exception are teams that played in 13 games and went 6-7. And then James Madison would be next in line as they are in their final year of transitioning to FBS. 18.7.2.1.3 Exception -- Insufficient Number of Eligible Institutions. [FBS] If an insufficient number of institutions meet the definition of a deserving team pursuant to Bylaw 18.7.2.1 to participate in postseason bowl games in a particular year, an institution that meets a condition set forth below shall be eligible to participate as an alternate in such a bowl game. All deserving teams must be selected before an alternate may be selected. The terms of participation in the bowl game shall be the same for the alternate as the terms that were applicable to the originally contracted conference participant. All institutions that meet the first condition below must be selected before an institution that meets the second condition may be selected and so forth in descending order: (Adopted: 5/18/22) (a) An institution that would have met the requirements set forth in Bylaw 18.7.2.1.1 but for the fact that one victory was against a Football Championship Subdivision opponent that had not met the required average of the permissible maximum number of grants-in-aid per year in football during a rolling two-year period and the institution's waiver request was denied. (b) An institution that participated in 13 regular-season contests and finished the season with a record of six wins that count toward meeting the definition of a deserving team and seven losses. (c) An institution that is in its final year of reclassification from the Football Championship Subdivision to the Football Bowl Subdivision and meets the definition of a deserving team pursuant to Bylaw 18.7.2.1 or the exception in Bylaw 18.7.2.1.1. (d) An institution that finished its season with a minimum of five wins that count toward meeting the definition of a deserving team and a maximum of seven losses but achieved a multiyear Academic Progress Rate (APR) that permits postseason participation. Alternates identified pursuant to this condition shall be identified as eligible in descending order based on the institutions' multiyear Academic Progress Rates. (1) If multiple institutions achieved the same multiyear rate, the institution with the highest single-year Academic Progress Rate, beginning with the most recent reporting year and continuing until a higher rate is found, shall be identified as eligible first. An institution that is identified as an alternate must declare whether it will participate in a bowl game. An alternate institution that declares an intention to participate shall select an available bowl game in which to participate. (2) If an institution is unable to participate in a bowl game after accepting a bid, the bowl entity shall select an alternate from among the remaining Football Bowl Subdivision institutions with a multiyear Academic Progress Rate that permits postseason participation to replace the team that accepted the bid and is no longer able to participate in the bowl game.

They apparently can qualify if there aren't enough bowl eligible teams. https://www.breezejmu.org/sports/burning-questions-about-jmu-footballs-2023-season-and-bowl-eligibility/article_b837d3c0-47b2-11ee-a357-f3ee1f5cad7e.html

It's all contextual. Down and distance matter. False starting when the offense is facing a 3rd and 15 is a lot different than a 3rd and 3. I don't mind penalties, but we need to avoid the dumb ones like the Brown throat slash.

It varies by team. This article has a good breakdown. I think that there might be some patriotism built into Navy being favored more heavily than they should be. Since 2020, they are only 43.8% ATS at home. Home-Field Advantage For Every College Football Team in 2023 WWW.ACTIONNETWORK.COM Check out Collin Wilson's article for what home-field advantage is worth for every college football team in 2023.