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macphisto

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Everything posted by macphisto

  1. Their website said it was supposed to be Rome from 12-3 today. They've picked up some talent that used to be on other stations. The old drivetime show on 1010 has been on 620 lately, likely just as fill-ins. Bobby Fenton was on 620 and he was once on 1470 then 1040. I think he used to co-host when Terry Bowden had a show that was on in Tampa and Orlando. And JP didn't get carried over from 1010, so he probably was brought in as a filler. I've got to think they've been taking a ratings hit from 98.7. Justin Pawlowski has a good show on from 10-2 that bites into Ron & Ian and Rome. I could see 620 seriously thinking about more local programming. But Clearchannel owns Jim Rome's show and distributes it. I seriously doubt they'd want to take it down in a major market unless it is tanking.
  2. Money talks. We get enough money and the ACC is in danger of breaking up or at least losing FSU and someone else. That would greatly lower their stock as a conference. It is a foregone conclusion that the conference will be getting substantially more in their next deal than they are getting in their current one. That will help improve all the programs. In addition, being on NBC weekly will improve visibility and that will help recruiting. Greater national exposure for the conference also means greater exposure for the athletes, making them more likely to draw attention and climb up draft boards. I think we can still be a better football conference than the ACC and PAC-12 overall and be on equal footing with the Big XII. The SEC and B1G would be high orders to challenge, but I think we can long term be the #3 or #4 conference and, frankly, I think we are better balanced than most conferences. Unless Temple reverts, we don't really have any perpetual bottom dwellers like a Duke, Indiana, Iowa State, or Stanford (sure, they've been better lately, but without Harbaugh and Luck, I expect them to plummet back down to Earth).
  3. As much as I'm looking forward to football, I'm even more geeked for basketball. Practically new SunDome and coming off an incredible year. It won't be easy, but I think this team will be even better and will hopefully get some major support from Tampa Bay. Why not go for a BE title in football and basketball?
  4. Was that ND uniform designed by Two-Face? I thought Maryland's unis from last year were bad, but this is terrible. I'm no fan of the Irish, but they had nice, classic looking unis. It's like Michigan's "throwbacks" from last year. Ugly. It doesn't have to be busy to be good.
  5. Fantastic move. What's interesting is that he's both a Big East guy and not a Big East guy. He didn't grow up in the conference career wise, but he is a UConn alum. That could definitely help to hold UConn in conference - but the TV deal will be what really holds it together. This guy knows about how to present to an audience. He know negotiation, but he knows TV as well. He's coming to sell us and promote our image. I agree, the days of the Big Least are over. We will likely deal with that talk for one more season, but I'm sure he will help our conference build itself up image wise - helping us to recruit better athletes which will help us be more competitive across the board. My feeling is that the ACC best watch themselves. They are in trouble with the upcoming TV deal for us. FSU is going to bail and a new deal will keep our current teams from being tempted to leave.
  6. Mama Bull I respectively beg to differ on this issue and believe that we do have the in house resources to negotiate a major TV deal... its called leaning on your experts... the SEC does it, the Big12 does, the B1G does it, the ACC does it... but somehow we can't? We have tons of untapped resources that are just sitting on the shelves getting dusty and fat off of hefty pay checks. Minus UCF, the Big East has what 16-17 world class Colleges of Business... this is all the resources we need. After all who trained and educated the consultants... they don't grow them in fields somewhere. By going out and hiring a consultant firm says to me that every school of business of each Big East member school is inferior to a boiler room styled consultant firm. There is NOTHING to suggest, based on past history, that the Big East would do the best job, if they tried to do this on their own. I give them credit for realizing that. We don't need to keep repeating the same mistakes. Yes but doesn't the Big East bring in consultants or outside aides for everything they negotiate? Wasn't the last failed TV contract attempt partially negotiated by the ex NFL commish who was on payroll as a consultant of sorts? The ex NFL commish was NOT on the Big East payroll. I'm not in favor of hiring consultants just to shirk personal responsibility. But, THESE particular consultants have a recent proven track record by negotiating a great Pac 12 deal. They have the requisite expertise for this particular job. Anyway, whatever they recommend would still need the final approval of the Big East. Well I hope that they can get us a good deal, don't get me wrong... Mo money, mo money... my main issue is about how the Big East which is made up of some world class schools has to get help to do something that they should not need help to do. I see it as a waste of $$ due to laziness on the part of the Big East Board and a under utilization of the Big Easts sparse financial resources. For example if I went into my bosses office and told him that we should hire out a consultant to do my job for me because I can't do it then I would get fired. However I guess when you get to a certain level of employment common sense is tossed out the window. Oh well we all will just have to agree to disagree on this one. These guys are negotiators. That means they likely have a stake in the final outcome and will be driven to drive the price as high as possible. Some on staff professor isn't going to bring the same expertise. Academic types do not function in the real world and often don't understand how it works as academia is very sheltered. Think of them as headhunters and salesman. They will find the sales pitch and fears they need to tap into at networks to drive up the price. This is a positive move, not a negative. It means the BE is taking this very seriously and is playing much more aggressively than they have in the past. If they do get more money than the ACC, expect them to coyly make it known to those schools to entice a few to come over or come back, as it may be.
  7. He is a guy who is just a natural born success. Everything he gets involved in, he is successful. This is a guy who won the Governorship of MA as a Republican. That doesn't even seem possible, but he did it. He also saved the Salt Lake City Olympics. He is a terrific businessman too. Saying that, I think I would rather him be the POTUS and let Wiberg do his thing in the BE. Except for the fact that Mittens ties animals to the roof of his car and pays no taxes. Well at least he doesn't eat dog. I have good sources that say President Obama has White House staffers go to the kennels every day to find tasty morsels for himself. My source is reputable and I can't tell you who it is, but I think it is up to President Obama to release all the White House meal logs to prove me wrong. After all, we all know you're guilty until proven innocent, at least that's what my buddy Harry Reid told me. Anyways, Weiberg please.
  8. I think we have to ask ourselves, what would be more appealing to the public, the BE champ, or a 2nd place SEC school/ND combo... I think the BE gets left out, hope I'm wrong. I'm not sure if the second place SEC school will go Orange. Without the BCS, the payouts from Outback and/or Cap One are probably comparable. I think the SEC would prefer to keep its bowl tie-ins with the Big Ten. Those draw more eyes to TVs and generate more revenue. I see the SEC mainly bowling with the Big XII and the Big Ten. I see the Big XII doing a lot of bowling with the PAC-12. I think we'll get a few with the PAC-12, considering our (hopefully) new presence on the west coast. And we'll pair up with the ACC. Notre Dame, at the moment, will still likely negotiate bowls with us as they have in the past. Until they actually announce a move to somewhere else, that's my guess. So we may get in the Orange. I doubt we'll see the Big Ten change much. They already are in three Florida bowls. Same for the SEC. I think they keep those tie-ins.
  9. Very true. The reason we invited SMU is because of their potential on the football end. They also are seriously looking at getting better in basketball, though how long their new coach stays is way up in the air. Houston is the better immediate "get" of the two. But both come from a talent rich state and cities with large populations. Hopefully it gets some more eyeballs on our football and longterm improves the conference. Of all our adds, only Boise State is a proven commodity. SMU, Houston, and (as much as I hate to admit it) UCF all do have good upside, but they are not good BCS teams yet. Temple has taken huge strides and I think they also have good potential. Memphis and SDSU I am not sold on, but I understand why both were invited. Memphis is here because of their basketball. Temple's basketball also favored them as well as their history with the conference. I think the upside is their for BE football to improve long term and to continue to be better than the ACC. Basketball should remain strong, though losing Pitt and Cuse doesn't help us. Even so, adding Temple and Memphis does help to ease that loss. Syracuse is really the irreplaceable member in the basketball end, but we've got plenty of good basketball staying behind and should continue to rank as the #1 or #2 basketball conference each year.
  10. Depends on the contract they signed. If it specifically stipulated that they would have to pay a the exit fee if they did not join then it may be open and shut. They would argue that they signed up to join a league with Pitt and Cuse in it, etc. I doubt that would hold up. It all depends on if they basically agreed to be bound to the bylaws.
  11. Bob Dylan? He's played there before and hasn't been to Tampa in a while.
  12. Haven't been following it closely. If so then it stinks, but I couldn't blame us for wanting to schedule someone easier, for us not wanting to pay Sparty to come on down (because I'd bet there'd be a cash consideration), and also for Sparty if they don't want to play a tourney team from last year right during the first week. Wouldn't be surprised if we schedule UCF, though a game against UF or FSU would be a real big draw too.
  13. Not likely. The season starts about the 2nd week of November, so unless we play all road games those first 2/3 weeks this is just a home game (but a very nice, attractive home game). I'd figure there will be an exhibition at Tampa (kindly repay them for letting us use their court for a few months) and then we'll have the season & home opener around November 10-15. Plus, when they announce the opener, they will make sure we know it. Hopefully the rumors of hosting Michigan State for the home opener prove true. That would be a great start to the new dome.
  14. We'll get 10-12 which is what I've been saying since the raid. This is true. Kudos to you if it ends up that way and a mea culpa from me. I think we might end up with a bit more than $12M at this point, but I do think you're right in the range. I was wrong on the bid inflation, though if we do end up with some prime time NBC programming I think that can be a big win for building the conference brand and recruiting. A conference that can tell recruits they'll be in primetime on broadcast TV, even in this day and age, is an advantage. I think that would possibly make us more viable long term than the ACC because I don't think they'll get too much primetime ABC space. I think other ESPN properties will be more likely to get on the network with FSU and Clemson being exceptions, but also possibly being gone. As for the ACC money, I don't know how much the ACC will get in the end if FSU and Clemson bolt. It appears from reports that ESPN and other entities allow for renegotiation when teams shift, but that goes both ways. It means they could reduce payouts if strong assets are lost to a conference. I doubt the ACC is anywhere near as appealing without FSU and Clemson. In fact, I think we'd be the stronger conference competitively and on TV overall with those two out. The money is important to build programs, but a national presence on TV helps too. The conference needs to build itself to compete against the others and grow the brand. If the BE makes itself more appealing, it may attract other schools down the line, and, in doing so, be able to get more money out of the TV contract just as the ACC has and others will.
  15. August 30, 2001 at Northern Illinois doesn't count? Apparently not. I'd bet they meant to put the qualifier "since joining the Big East" in there since we weren't in a "Big Six" conference at the time.
  16. No they are not because they don't want to accommodate their other sports teams by not scheduling BYU for Sunday games and scheduling to avoid travel on Sunday. The BXII tried for BYU and was not able to work it out. Could be wrong, but I think they went to BYU before they went to WVU. I'd guess the PAC-12 may be the same and I'd also guess that Utah would prefer to not have BYU.
  17. I'm not sure. I don't know if they'd want to play by BYU's rules when it comes to Sunday games and BYU would be joining the PAC-12 for all sports. My guess is that they'd be football only for our conference. The Sunday games aren't even an issue then and the BE can cover extra travel expenses incurred when BYU wants to stay over an extra day to prevent Sunday travel. I tend to agree with those that say we should add both. Might as well go for 16. Add Air Force, BYU, and Fresno State.
  18. I wonder where ESPN will end up in all of this. They do have part of the Big XII under contract, but not all of the games - I think they have tier 1. They have all the ACC. If the ACC dissolves and cannot honor its contract because the Big XII picks off some teams, would they sue them while also still airing their games? Could be a genius ploy by ESPN to increase their payouts and then sue to get some money back. What ESPN has come to realize is that through this process they can jettison some under performing products(Big East and ACC lower tier teams) and move the premium product into vehicles where they can offer them nice increases in annual payouts while reducing their overall payout and freezing out potential competitors. I'm not saying that they are excellently performing this Machiavellian feat, but they are definitely reading the tea leaves each day and strategizing the next set of moves. I mean these guys have Billions of dollars riding on this and they know they better not screw it up.ESPN made a very public statement the other day they talked about a composition clause that is standard in their contracts. In other words the minute the BE or ACC loses a team, their contract is subject to renegotiation. Boom goes the dynamite. Two scenarios, the Big East loses a ton of it's negotiating leverage because they lose teams to the ACC, or the ACC collapses when the BE picks over the scraps by offering a windfall in their new TV deal. Either way, ESPN saves money and captures the premium content market. I think the basketball schools are a big drag on the structure of the BE. At the same time, there is some NYC influence with the BE that is helpful. I think the ACC schools all bail on the conference if FSU, Clemson, and some others leave. My gut says the most likely scenario is that the B1G stays put. They've added one team in the last 20 years and before that had nine core members with Michigan State added in the Fifties to bring them back to ten after Chicago left. They just don't tend to like to rock the boat and I'm not sure if they'd move for anyone other than Notre Dame. ND can do something, but they are far enough in the future to not really influence anything for now. Pitt going with them or GT or whoever would not be until 2016. A conference member would be dumb to announce too far in advance because they'd probably get booted from their current conference. I think we see Clemson and FSU go BXII then VT and NC State go SEC. Why not UNC? They're snobby academically. That leaves the ACC at ten. So, at that point do you expand to save the conference? Do some teams look at the BE? Or do BE teams and ACC teams look at the prospect of bailing their conferences and forming a new venture? A 16 team continental conference could be interesting. My thought for a while has been the idea of a 16 team football conference with four divisions and a six team playoff (if you can get NCAA approval) to determine conference winner. I think that could be a big revenue generator, though it would cause other conferences to want to go to 16. My ideal system would have the conference playoffs feed into a final playoff system. Imagine if you have six conferences that generate a winner through a playoff and then those six teams playoff for the title?
  19. Translation: We would like to be approached, but we don't want to directly contact you. We prefer you take on the liability of a conference falling apart. I wonder where ESPN will end up in all of this. They do have part of the Big XII under contract, but not all of the games - I think they have tier 1. They have all the ACC. If the ACC dissolves and cannot honor its contract because the Big XII picks off some teams, would they sue them while also still airing their games? Could be a genius ploy by ESPN to increase their payouts and then sue to get some money back. It's still a question of it is stays at just two teams leaving. My guess is the B1G sees the big money deals that the lower rated BXII is getting and wants more. Adding more teams gets that done and grabbing UVA and UNC or Maryland and UNC also lets them meet academic standards. I'm not sure B1G will go beyond 14 unless UNC dictates that Duke must come along - and I'm not sure they would. VT and NC State probably would go SEC, with VT being the main prize in that package for them. So the ACC could be down to 6 or 8 teams, depending. Could be as few as four.
  20. It all depends on demand and what the bidders want. If NBC wants primetime football programming on their broadcast network, expect it to be a good sized offer. If it is primarily a cable only affair then it would likely be around the ESPN offer that was rejected. Aggregate TV ratings indicate no real dropoff in viewership with the new teams - in fact they indicate an increase. The real money comes in if there is a weekly network deal with NBC for Saturday nights - something that may become more possible with rumors of ND going BXII in the future and the fact that ND is not a primetime revenue source. It's worthwhile recognizing that the reason these huge prices are being paid for the BXII and others (and, btw, the PAC-12, ACC, Big XII, and Big East are all in about the same place ratings wise - SEC is top dog and the B1G is second by very wide margins over everyone else) is because they are moneymakers. Football ratings are fairly predictable, it's easy to sell spots for games, the rates are higher due to a more receptive demographic, and there are more ads. Generally, an hour of aired football features more advertizing than an hour of aired comedy or drama. There's also ad revenue generated through graphics, sponsorship, etc. A football game that draws half the audience of a drama can actually generate much more revenue during that time period. This is why I suspect NBC will desire to do a primetime college game. They could do counter programming, but it's expensive unless they go with three or four reality shows during the same time period. A weekly primetime game could add about $4M per school to any deal, so much of an increased deal would hinge on that. Additional cable dollars depend on several other factors. The ACC's tenuous nature now actually may also increase value, depending on who is left. There's the possibility of a cancellation of the contract or even the possibility of the ACC folding up shop and merging with the BE, which could void the contract. That leaves ESPN with two programming holes. I'm sure they have contingency plans for the BE leaving, but the ACC folding would create some holes. There are a lot of moving pieces in this and a lot of variables to determine exactly what the final deal would entail. We don't even know which conferences will make it to November and be intact for the next season at this point.
  21. Pitt is actually a higher, if ND does got to Big 12 there partners for 13 & 14 would be either GT or Pitt, imo, so they are working hard right now behind the scenes also to possibly pull a TCU. Now if **** hits the fan which conference would PItt and Cuse be better off in BE or making the move to ACC. I say when its done the BE will be the more stable of the two with the better contract in NBC. ACC is going to have to renegotiate with ESPN when its done because if wont be worth what they just signed. The big plus for the BE could be the TV contract opening they have whereas the ACC is locked in. It would have to be a question of if the remaining schools feel they can do better by bailing. Yet the major drawback for the BE is that it still has that hybrid model. Would remaining ACC schools really want the baggage of GTown, Nova, etc? I wonder where the legality would be in dissolving the current BE and dissolving the ACC to form a new conference? The BE TV obligations are coming to an end, so I think that's not a problem after next year. The basketball schools could keep the name and even consider expanding - adding schools like Dayton, Xavier, etc to the mix to strengthen their basketball. If the ACC dissolves, Then the ESPN contract ends since it would be with a non-existent entity. That leaves ESPN with a whole in their TV programming and could set up a different bidding war. Then you start a new conference from the remnants and immediately have decisions to make. Whither Boise State? Do you want to be a continental conference? Could you set up to accommodate someone like BYU and Air Force? You really need to become an all sport conference, IMHO, unless those teams prefer being in west coast conferences for other sports. I think much would depend on who was left in the ACC and how big everyone else became. ND is going nowhere fast for football, so I doubt any add ons will be leaving any conference soon to go with them. No idea where any of this will go beyond Clemson and FSU going BXII.
  22. Yeah, but realistically how often could someone outside of the top four conferences get into the Top 4 rankings? The BCS system to this point "included" the little guy because they had four, then five bowls. That means a little guy only had to crack the top 8 or so. Pretty near impossible, but they managed it a couple of times. Now they've reduced the number of slots back down to four. Then the most exclusive bowls will once again freeze out the little guy, since they won't have to pick teams by a system anymore. What the big schools have done is placated the masses while tightening the grip on the big money. Brilliant, from their perspective. They included the little guy because they had to. The BCS system has equal votes between all conferences, whether they are AQ or not. They need it for political cover. As I've said repeatedly, the NCAA bylaws allow the NCAA to grant or remove powers from conferences. Too many unsatisfied D1 schools and they can remove bowl rights, TV rights, etc from the conferences and schools. I doubt they would ever go so far as to remove the TV rights, but they can do a lot of things. I think any future system will keep the door open for lesser conferences to get in - and may eventually have a guaranteed spot as they do right now. I think there will necessarily be conferences that are tiered and a slightly lower standard for a MAC team, for instance, to get in. It's all speculation right now. I seriously doubt that four conferences will dominate outright - and if they do in the rankings then I expect changes just as we saw the BCS change over time to accommodate the non-AQ teams. They may hope to avoid that by removing the AQ, but then the issue of bias in the polls and the possibility of the SEC, B1G, etc avoiding scheduling teams to pad the ratings. Unfortunately, we won't arrive at a system where most of the conference champs get to play in a playoff. This would take us to a place where conference alignment is not as significant, which is the case in the FCS. Of course, big TV deals don't exist down there either.
  23. If FSU and Clemson leave I could see some other poaching happening, depending on how large the Big XII and other conferences wish to get. A merger would make some sense with the remaining Big East schools that play football, allowing the BE name to stay with Georgetown, Seton Hall, etc. I doubt that SMU or Houston would be included. UCF, maybe. I could also see Temple being brought along. Their football program has improved and their basketball is good. If the B1G expands then they would target Maryland, Rutgers, Virginia, or UNC - possibly all four. Duke and Wake are outliers, but I'm not sure they'd be appealing due to athletic issues and the fact that the B1G is all public schools except for Northwestern. I could see the SEC taking an interest to prop up their academics, but they'd prefer to take VT over anyone and probably would take NC State to get into North Carolina or might try to do a tandem of UVa and VT. Will the Big XII stop at 12? Who else out there really adds value? Georgia Tech? Possibly, but mainly due to the presence in Atlanta. That might open the door for Louisville. It is very possible that the ACC will become a shell of its former self and even a merger between the remaining BE squads and the remaining ACC schools will leave a diminished conference, especially if the NC schools bail. I think most of what will happen depends on the B1G. If they stay put then the ACC may be able to stem the bleeding or if the B1G only goes to 14. Truth is, I don't think they have a play that adds tons of value to their conference. UNC would be a nice add, but mainly for basketball. They won't consider another school unless they have AAU membership. Georgia Tech? Maybe, but how much value do they add?
  24. ESPN lawyers have included language that makes this deal, change or become void if any membership change occurs. Be sure of that, Come on, they aren't throwing out billions of dollar contracts without some **** smart attorneys watching out for their interests. Not all attys are as dumb as those guys you see on TV. The previous conference TV contracts (Big 12) didn't have that. You can't say the loss of teams would cost the ACC if they replace them at this point. Not for certain, but we don't know how all this shifting has affected contract language. ESPN may have gotten something in return during renegotiations, but we don't know one way or the other. I'd say that if I were running one of the networks right now, that I would build in an out or a payment reduction if a conference loses members, especially if a "premium" member in the conference leaves. FSU, Miami, VT, and Clemson probably would get that designation for the ACC. Yet we don't know, but it is entirely possible that these new deals that extended the contracts have protections for the TV networks against conference shifts.
  25. I don't see the state legislatures allowing one team to move without the other UNLESS there's a viable alternative. For instance, I could see then letting VT go to the SEC IF Virginia gets picked up by the B1G. That is a fit, just as UNC would also be a fit for the B1G. Maybe we could see a deal worked out so VT and NC State go to the SEC while UNC and UVa go B1G. If that happened then my guess is that the B1G would target Rutgers and Pitt to get up to 16. That keeps the conference contiguous and makes it so everyone except Nebraska is AAU. It keeps the B1G as the most illustrious college conference outside of the Ivy League. If the SEC and B1G go to 16 then I'd expect the BXII to end up doing the same. Louisville would certainly be high on a list after FSU and Clemson. Not too sure they'd want any of our new Texas add-ons. Could see an interest in Boise State for football but not for anything else. Georgia Tech would be appealing. I think we'd be appealing if they go up to 16. A lot depends on how big other conferences decide to become. If the B1G decides to sit out (and they did for 20 years) then the ACC won't fall apart. And where would Notre Dame go? Frankly, I think they'd be okay in the Big East if the football end of things dies out and the name lives on for basketball and all other sports. It'd still be a good conference. But they might feel pressured to join a football conference. The B1G would put on some pressure, but I think they might be tempted to joined a depleted ACC where they feel they have a better chance of winning. The B1G and BXII would not be so good for them and an ACC without FSU, Clemson, and a few others could be dominated by Notre Dame. I'm sorry, but the SEC wants NC State, like Randall McMurphy wanted a frontal lobotomy. I don't disagree with you. Just stating the only scenario where the state schools would split. I think the SEC would be most interested in Virginia Tech and would be willing to take UV to get there. Or the SEC may stay put. FSU and Clemson might go and make the Big XII actually a 12-member conference again. The ACC may stick with 12. And, without FSU and Clemson, would fall off even more for basketball and football. I could see them going for Rutgers and UConn to replace them. UConn helps basketball, but the overall football doesn't improve with those two added. If FSU and Clemson go, what does that do to Pitt and Cuse? It likely could sabotage the new deal the ACC just signed because I'm not sure if ESPN will want to pay that kind of money without FSU in the mix. They may have an out. The kicker will be if FSU wants to pay the money to leave. Same for Clemson. But I think the argument can be made that by adding them to the BXII they could add another $5M a year or more per school when you include a new championship game. That would mean that it would take less than three years to get the buyout money back since the BXII would be paying out about $8M per school more than the SEC and FSU (and Clemson) could also try for their own networks on the side.
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