UCF_rustbucket

C probably was the worst but in fairness to Aresco and the presidents, it was at least their 3rd choice. The first plan was to be proactive and raid the Big 12, which obviously didn't work. Then they did reach out to Boise, SDSU, CSU, and Air Force but couldn't close the deal since Boise and SDSU likely felt the Big 12/PAC 12 would still be options for them. The Colorado schools didn't want to go alone. The only one I'm not sure about is how much of an effort or consideration was made to get top Sun Belt teams.

Right but Apple didn't get to where it is by being reckless. The PAC leftover won't get them their money's worth. But you're right about the CFP bid. If they throw their hat in the ring for the increased CFP games, Apple will absolutely get their money's worth. Just released in the past hour btw: Sources: Oregon State, Washington State finalizing scheduling alliance with Mountain West Conference SPORTS.YAHOO.COM The alliance is built around what’s termed a “7+1” format. To me, everything in there indicates no big money and a collision course for the PAC and MWC to merge either once the lawsuit is settled or after the 2 year grace period is done.

We'll see. I just don't buy a gentleman's agreement from the same people who just destroyed your conference and took almost all your teams. Nothing in the history of college football shows those in power willing to split the pie more ways. Greed reigns supreme. Especially with outsiders, which is who the PAC will be mostly comprised of after they backfill. The push for 5+7 also shows they don't intend to view the new PAC as a peer. https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-cfp-leaders-moving-closer-to-adjusting-12-team-playoff-format-230208506.html

Yeah I don't know what to tell you but I'm strongly willing to bet that's incorrect. If you're a USF fan then you should remember living it with the collapse of the Big East. The Big East was an AQ conference in the BCS but after losing 5/8 members and backfilling with mostly CUSA, it was not kept on a power conference in the CFP era. The Big East had a TV deal offer from ESPN for $130M a year for the whole conference. Turned it down, got raided, and the new offer shrunk down to $130M over 7 years. Big East Conference, ESPN finalizing 7-year, $130 million media deal - ESPN WWW.ESPN.COM The Big East and ESPN are finalizing a seven-year media rights deal worth... ESPN didn't keep the same offer after membership turned over a whole bunch, why would Apple?

I'm sure Apple still wants to break into college football but just look at it logically. Why would they pay $25M for the 2 lowest value PAC leftovers and a bunch of G5 replacements? They're not going to overpay. If they didn't even match ESPN's initial offer of $30M to the PAC 10 (which had only lost the LA schools) there's just no way they're gonna stick with $25M for what's left.

No, the PAC isn't retaining any P5 status. The 2 year window they have to repopulate is the NCAA grace period for having the minimum number of teams to simply exist as a conference, not a P conference. The current CFP contract runs only through the 25 football season. They need unanimous approval to change from 6+6 to 5+7, and the PAC 2 may block it. But from 26 onward they don't need unanimous approval so it's inevitable even if delayed. The Apple TV deal is absolutely not on the table. They're not gonna pay a glorified MWC what they were going to pay the PAC 10.

100%. Even though my team is P4 now, I still think a fair playoff bracket would give access to every conference's champ.

The PAC isn't retaining it's power 5 status, which is separate from autonomy status which they should keep. There's not a hard set definition but we can probably boil P5 status down to big tv money and an automatic NY6 bowl tie in. We can probably add voter perception in how the teams get treated in the polls but that's harder to quantify. The TV money is going away. OSU/WSU were the only 2 PAC teams that the media powers didn't save in any of their other power conferences. Adding them to the existing MWC or some combination of a best of the rest will get you something a little more than the current AAC deal. Maybe $7M to $12M per team. Not awful but a gulf between that and the ACC/Big 12 and their $30M. Next is the autobid. With the CFP expanding to 12, all the current NY6 bowls will now rotate between 4 being quarterfinals and 2 being semifinals every year. So the Rose Bowl as a regular bowl with PAC vs B1G tie ins won't exist anymore. For the playoff autobids, there's no set bids for specific leagues. It's not spelled out to be SEC champ, B1G champ, etc ... And G5 champ. It's just the highest 6 ranked champs. The goal is 1 for every P conference and 1 for the G5. But with the PAC 12 thoroughly raided, the CFP committee is now pushing for 5 champ bids instead of 6. Aka, they're acknowledging that there's now a P4 and not a P5. This still maintains the same structure of giving every P conference an unofficial slot and the G5 one shared slot. Unofficial because on paper, multiple G5 champs are eligible for those spots, but reality of how the voters rank the teams is that you'll only have 1 G5 champ in that range. The PAC 12 as P5 league is dead.

I think for the next season a grad transfer has immediate eligibility but you can't play for a new team within the same season.

I don't think there's enough value left in the PAC. If there were at least 4 but probably 6 legacy teams left, then they'd have the value to build a best of the rest league. But with just the 2 Pacific Northwest little brothers? Not sure it's there. So since the money isn't there, it's not really worthwhile for either MWC or AAC schools to pay the exit fees and make marginally better money in a far flung league. Instead the easiest and most straightforward path is just merge with the MWC because this avoids the need for exit fees and keeps it geographically tighter.

You absolutely can, but it's the week in and week out of facing that level of competition while not having the same depth that grinds you down. The good: we went toe to toe with Oklahoma, blasted Ok State, kept up with defending champs K State for most of the game, and wrecked Baylor for about 3 quarters. The bad: Didn't have the horses to keep up with K State in the end, completely collapsed against Baylor (though that's more on Gus than the talent since Baylor just isn't good), getting absolutely Jayhawked, and disappointing losses to TT and WVU.

The more Golesh wins and keeps building relationships locally, the more you'll keep high local talent. But there's still an artificial cap due to G5 vs P4/5. Plenty of players have liked us (and I'm sure USF) in the past, strong relationships with the coaches, but wanted to be P5. So they didn't come here. A great recruiting class for us would be 1 to 3 4-stars. We're not doing anything different but just the P5 label removes that stigma. Our 2022 class was half recruited by the time the Big 12 announcement came so limited impact there, 1 4-star. Our 2023 class got better, 3 4-stars. Both 2022 and 2023 were ranked upper 30s when combing both HS and transfer rankings. But now this 2024 class that we're recruiting while fully in the Big 12 is better than anything we've ever done before. Flirting with top 25 with just the HS portion. The transfer aspect won't really be set until summer. We have 9 4-stars right now, the entire G5 combined has 2. And we haven't done anything fundamentally different or even gotten a Big 12 check yet.

Agreed. The PAC branding is important but anyway we slice it, most of the traditional teams are gone and so is the star power. This is why I don't think USF or Memphis fans need to fuss about being invited to the new PAC. It'll be a slightly higher earning west coast counterpart to the AAC at best. Like you said, not enough to offset travel costs plus the exit fee. Better off working towards an ACC or Big 12 invite.

I think $15M is still pretty high if we math it out. A 14 team conference paying $15M each is $210M a year for the whole conference. The 12 team MWC currently gets around $4M a team, so $48M a year total. Subtract $210 - $48 and that's the value that OSU/WSU are adding. Which is $162M, so each of the PAC leftovers would need to bring $81M/yr in tv value each to raise the existing MWC deal to $15M/yr per team. If we're generous and say they're worth the $30M ESPN first offered the PAC, then we have $48M + $60M. Divide that by 14 and we have $7.7M for each team in the new PAC/MWC.

Part of what allowed this to work for the ACC is that they have a conference network, so adding Dallas and San Francisco gives them a new carriage fee base. The Big 12 doesn't have a conference network and WSU/OSU don't have the market for this to work.

Being a poor athletic department in a poor area also does USM no favors lol they have some solid history but a lot of that was due to being one of the few midmajors in the region for a long time. So many teams in the south joined FBS in the last 30 years that their magic is gone.

Agreed. I think 5 + 7 is the safest bet to avoid an antitrust lawsuit.

Potentially, for 2 years at least but maybe not more than that. The current CFP contract only runs through the 25 football season so it's very likely the next contract goes either 5 + 7 with the PAC having to fight with the AAC and SBC, or a straight up selection of the 12 highest ranked teams regardless of conference champs.

Rose Bowl becomes a permanent playoff game starting next year so that dream is dead, too.

We've been P5 for about 46 minutes so that's fair lol

The Big 12 would need to misstep at the same level the PAC just did for that to happen. Especially since it seems like destiny for at least Clemson, FSU, and UNC to leave as soon as the GOR permits.

This dude has been proven wrong over and over and is just salty by cherry picking 1 week stats lol

I believe Miami was a yes for this expansion. But they'd definitely flip to a no if USF was included.

That's probably their hope. Or a Big 12 invite. I just don't see them as attractive candidates and see more potential in select G5 schools over them. They're almost destined to remain left behind so might as well be left behind and play regional opponents.

But would that apply to the PNW schools? They were just in a P5 league. They're about as attractive as they'll ever be and no P4 league wanted them. If they join the AAC, they're in a league with schools in the southeast, a much more attractive spot for the next schools to get elevated from. They'd just be joining far flung schools with a better chance of leaving them than the MWC schools. They may be better off in a solid, stable MWC than an AAC that already took another bit and is at risk for more. They'd basically be flying cross country to play in CUSA if there are more defections.