UCF_rustbucket

Yup. You could see some connection to the AAC profile with Calford, big city academic schools. But with only the little brother PNW schools left, those are 100% MWC schools. Makes no sense for them to be on an island for barely a higher payout in the AAC vs MWC. The slight lead the AAC has in TV money would have gone to fund their cross country travel anyway so might as well stay regional.

I think he means the 4 ACC schools that are blocking the Calford move.

Exactly. You want both of them to stay in tact so one is guaranteed to send an invite. Because if one is too weak, the other will want to solidify themselves as #3 and cannibalize the other. So the leftovers of #4 would want to backfill but the resulting conference would be AAC+ at best.

My honest take on what this does for your chances, it's not as bad as you think. It means you won't get into the ACC during this round but that honestly didn't seem like an option. They're trying to keep pace with the Big 12 so I'm surprised SMU is even in the mix. But the reason I see this as a positive for y'all is that it protects the ACC for next round. It's not gonna stop the top of the ACC from leaving, but it keeps the remaining core stronger. If you're left too weak after a raid, the vultures come down on you. In the ACC's case that would mean the Pitt and Louisville type teams leaving for the Big 12 instead of staying and trying to build back up. I don't think the ACC will be able to raid from the Big 12, but this will stop it from getting raided by them too.

Tbh, it was too late to change much by the Jeff Scott hire. The Big 12 invites came right before the 2021 season, so CJS second season. Even if he went 7-5 his first year that wouldn't have raised attendance and viewership to where you'd want them fast enough.

Smaller ish private school that draws a large chunk of its students from out of state. I think TCU has a better connection with the local t shirt fans. Noticed the same thing with Tulane. They had sad attendance when we played them the first time last season. Got better for the CCG, and then had great numbers in the cotton bowl when their alumni from across the country were able to plan with more time. This isn't great news for y'all, but seems like a desperate move by SMU trying to get the last ticket to the promised land.

Exactly. And given that Cincy was left behind that time even despite their history, there realistically just wasn't anything USF could have done differently. Not unless you built 2 stadiums and went to like 5 BCS bowls in your 8 years in the Big East or something insane like that lol

It's definitely hard to make that argument. It makes sense when you look at the 3 teams left behind as the Big East became the AAC. Cincy, recent CUSA callup. USF, recent CUSA callup with barely a decade in FBS when the Big East was falling apart. UConn, recent FCS callup with less than a decade in FBS. Only Louisville made it out from the 3 CUSA callups and barely. They needed the Rutgers + Maryland to the B1G move to happen in order for an ACC spot to open up for them. All this to say, odds were very long no matter what since the breakup happened with USF and others still so very new to the BCS level and in some cases, even FBS.

In theory. But look at the current CUSA lineup. Not very exciting. If the AAC has to raid from there, it means they just got raided themselves. Aresco somehow hung onto the $7M per team per year deal after losing UConn, Cincy, UCF, and Houston. If the AAC loses another 4, say SMU, USF, Tulane, and Memphis or Rice, I can't see the $7M still holding. What's left should still be higher than CUSA but now you may be down to like $2M to $3M a year at best.

Huh... That's different.

UConn actually paid less than we did. They left with 11 months notice and paid just $17M. We felt kind of ripped but since the Big 12 pay bump was worth it we took it.

Overall athletically, it's UConn by a mile. Football wise there's more potential for the 2 southern teams. But they've got a ways to go with support and funding. But UConn would be a long shot to join a south/Midwest/west coast based football first conference after not liking being in a south/Midwest football first AAC.

The core idea of your story very likely happened but with Oregon and Washington instead of the LA schools. They were probably setting themselves up to follow the LA schools by asking for unrealistic tv money.

Apple wants to be all or nothing for the media deal. They're definitely exploring the best options to keep growing in the live sports market, but don't want to half ass it. So if they do make a deal, they want to have full control and the full inventory. They're prepared and not hurting if no deal shapes up. They won't overpay. But I'm also a little skeptical they'll give a good deal for the post raid PAC. I'm actually not sure if they'd want to give any deal at all after it lost the teams it did. The old PAC wasn't the SEC but had enough worth building around for their venture in cfb broadcasting. A PAC/MWC/AAC, TBD if they want that.

Also the same movie we saw in the Big 12 with Texas/Oklahoma and then USC/UCLA in the PAC. Some of the other members try to pad up the conference in case of future defections (though they don't always say it outright). But the big dogs who are also the ones most likely to leave say nah, you deal with it later.

Bull Matrix is right. 2023 is the last year where the 2 NY6 bowls are playoff games and 4 are regular bowls. The P5 have a guaranteed spot for their conference champ in one of the regular bowls if they aren't in the playoffs. But 2024 and 2025 have the expanded playoff so all 6 NY6 bowls become playoff games: 4 as quarterfinals and 2 as semifinals. So no more champ tie in. They'd have to be ranked high enough to be included in either the 6 champs or 6 at large.

This is the answer. Also the reason why the Big 12 doesn't automatically have anything to gain by adding the Bay Area schools. There's no Big 12 conference network so can't cheese the system the way the B1G did with Rutgers and Maryland. Still seems like a bad idea so we'll see if SMU actually happens.

Great breakdown. Agreed on all points. Can't see the next Big 12 deal bring miles ahead of the ACC that it would prompt schools to jump. I see it playing out more like the PAC 12 death. The top 4-6 ACC schools get poached by the Power 2, capping what the next ACC deal will be without them. The next middle batch, your Louisville and Pitt type schools will join the Big 12 just like the 4 corners did once it was the best option left. But otherwise their preference was to stay with their original conference.

For the exit fees of any conference, I think usually the legacy members will keep all of it. If not all of it, a large majority of it and only a small share to the new members that are replacing the outgoing teams. That $8.8M is right. The AAC TV deal will average $7M over it's duration but don't think it's actually hit that amount yet. But the $8.8M payout also includes bowl, CFP, and NCAA credits money.

The OSU and WSU fans also believed everything was fine and that anything negative was just Big 12 propaganda until the end.

Specifically recruits, I'd lean a little more towards NIL directly. But an OCS can build the foundation for a strong fan base which in the future will be your NIL donors.

Lol you can down vote me, doesn't make my comment incorrect.

That's actually just a myth floating on Twitter and online forums from fans of teams that want it to be true. Adding new teams does not open up the GOR. The new teams just sign onto the existing terms. See the Big 12: once Texas and Oklahoma announced they were leaving, the Big 12 invited 4 new teams. That didn't let them out of the GOR early. We've now even reached the point where the 4 new teams have joined alongside Oklahoma and Texas, still didn't let them out early.

It's a solid league. The problem is that the PAC needs teams in 2024, so any MWC adds will have to start with that $34M fee and try to negotiate it down. The AAC teams would have to pay at least the $18M we paid while giving the AAC significantly less notice. All of this to earn maybe $10M to $15M a year.

Most likely the ACC. The PAC is too depleted to be worth a cross country membership.