UCF_rustbucket
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Everything posted by UCF_rustbucket
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1. Agreed, the 3 western teams are too far and not good enough adds for being that far. Memphis I'd give dark horse chances depending on how many the ACC needs to add. 2. 1:1 probably makes sense though I wonder if it kicks in right away or if they're okay getting a little smaller. Meaning if they only lose FSU and Clemson to go down to 15 football members, they could stand pat potentially instead of adding to get back to 17. But if they start losing beyond that then they'll add. 3. Watered down P4 > G5 and it's not even close. The Big 12 and ACC CFP payments alone are bigger than the total payout for the AAC (TV + CFP+ bowls + NCAA credits).
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https://twitter.com/PeteThamel/status/1770112929469260128?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1770112929469260128|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=
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You could definitely see at least the offense was headed the right way with some of the pieces he brought in. But man. The defense was so bad that y'all lost a bunch of games in 2022 where the offense did enough to win/compete if only the defense weren't Charmin soft.
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Much appreciated! And same to you all for a fantastic basketball season and a clear positive trend for football. To this day, no clue what CJS was doing because with little to no effort, a Florida team should be a 4 to 6 win team at worst. Agreed on all the schools you listed. I'd love to be in a conference with them, but they wouldn't be up to standard for where the B1G and SEC are right now. IMO it's FSU and Clemson in tier 1, Miami, UVA, UNC in tier 2, and that's it.
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Maybe I'm naive, but I just don't see that. Kansas is an elite basketball program and OK State is a good/solid football program, but they don't stack up to what's already been taken. With football driving the bus they don't stack up to OU, UT, USC, UW, and Oregon. UCLA was the lucky market freebie but OK State won't be. The last meaningful chips on the board for the P2 are in the ACC.
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It all depends on how it goes down. If FSU/Clemson just agree to some overly expensive buyout, then I'm absolutely with you and there's 0 reason for the Pitt and Louisville type teams to turn around pay that expensive buyout for lateral money. This only becomes realistic if FSU finds some silver bullet to beat the GOR without a massive settlement payout. That would open the floodgates potentially. But even then, only potentially because the right situation and mix of teams could still be there to keep the ACC stable. Better to be M2 with the Big 12 than a glorified G5 like the PAC will be if/when it merges with the MWC.
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And that's the big gun they have to our heads. Everyone can clearly see the separation already. But making it official with these contracts would be a big deal to mark the ACC and Big 12 as second tier. The threat here is accept this offer or we leave and you're worse off.
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Unfortunately there's nothing either can really do to make the P2 be P3, but the name of the game is being relevant enough with schools that are important enough that you don't get left out of the party, even if you're sort of a second class citizen. Beats the situation the G5 would be in.
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That immediately made this a bad made up scenario for me lol. I remember right after Texas and Oklahoma announced they were leaving and there was all this speculation about the Big 12 being ripped apart, the 2 teams I saw most consistently being left out in the cold were Baylor and Kansas State. Their hopes were AAC at best. Because even Iowa State you can squint your eyes and make the B1G case.
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Something like that but it's more for contract purposes. Certain states have provisions on what the length of a contract can be. In theory, if you join a conference you assume you're a member either forever until you choose to leave. But a lot of places don't like contracts that go on in perpetuity. So you have to define a length for it. Others choose to do this by adding quirky lengths such as a "royal lives clause". Basically let's you deflect and say "oh this contract doesn't go on forever! Just until 21 years after the last descendants of the King of England pass away" which for practical purposes, means forever. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_lives_clause
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It's real but it's not as big of a deal as the Twitterverse makes it out to be. It just gives a firm length for conference membership on paper. The real gate is now the Grant of Rights. Schools looking to move have either time it with the GOR like Texas, Oklahoma, and all the departing PAC schools or fight it legally like FSU is attempting.
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Have any of you actually seen both your AD and @Bull Matrix in the same room?
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If we want to nitpick, the G5 with the most sustained success both in the current crop of G5 and even compared to the 4 who left is Boise State. But that proves your point. On field success is part of it. The other parts of Boise's profile make them less attractive so now they've been passed up on a couple of different expansion rounds. Before the PAC died they weren't even a front runner over SMU.
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The eastern Big 12 schools would love the ACC but only if it stays as is, which doesn't seem likely as FSU keeps whining so publicly. I think it'll take a lot more things aligning for the ACC to collapse like the PAC did. They have a much better chance for survival. But just like with the PAC, I can't see actual movement from the Big 12 to the ACC because the top schools that make it better than the Big 12 are trying to get out. And everyone knows it.
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Would have been an interesting choice for the PAC schools. Academically, those 6 fit better with the ACC. Being with similar academic peers is a big deal to them. But geographically the Big 12 makes more sense for them with the exception of the 3 eastern schools.
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Exactly this. There are very long stretches of nothing. The Twitter guys make it seem like wheels are always moving it the most recent realignment (2021-2023) was about a decade after the last meaningful round. You also gotta keep in mind that movement into a P4 is driven by the conference and their needs, not the invitees. USF won't be given an automatic invite as soon as they check off some boxes. Instead there has to be a need, almost always a vacancy, for the invite to come.
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Back in November, the CFP board passed a rule amendment that requires a conference to have 8 teams in order to be eligible for the conference champ autobids. This is separate from the NCAA's 2 year grace period allowing the PAC to exist as a conference despite being below the required 8, which is why some OSU/WSU were confused and thought they could still get an autobid from the PAC2. They won't be able to. They can go as an at large but that's a tall task with a mostly MWC schedule.
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To be fair, it's hard to do when a large chunk of the online Twitter expansionistas are Big 12 dudes. For some reason, a lot of them are WVU fans. Not sure if it's because there's nothing else to do there so they just stay online making up realignment scenarios lol
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I don't think that's what's happening. They're not bringing the PAC along for the ride. They're not going to welcome the new MWC disguised as the PAC as a true P5 because that would mean 12 more teams getting P5 CFP payout and slicing their pie further. The new PAC MWC merger will be more MWC than PAC. It'll remain a G5 conference. They may get a boost the first few years since OSU and WSU have been built up with P5 resources. But after a couple of years being G5s, I can't see them being that much better than any other MWC team. The move to 5+7 was about making sure the G5 weren't given a 2nd free slot. The powers that be only planned for 1 mercy spot.
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I'm a little disappointed you didn't give any school a 69% chance.
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Did all of you conspire with Torello to put @Bull Matrixout of a job? After all he's done to build this thread up!
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The SEC wanting USF is a possible but unlikely scenario. What I'm saying is that the SEC scrambling to add you to cut off the Big 12 is about as 0% as I can rate a scenario because the SEC will always be able to pick off the Big 12 on their own time.
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Eh. The SEC doesn't need to do any of that. You only block when it matters who gets to that school first. The Big 12 can't catch up to the SEC in any way so any existing Big 12 school and any prospective schools like USF would never be locked in forever just because the Big 12 came calling first. The SEC will always be able to pick anyone from the Big 12 if that's what they really wanted. Think TCU who got a Big East invite first. But then once the Big 12 decided they needed them, they were able to pluck them without problem because they were higher on the totem pole than the collapsing Big East.
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Torello is taking up the mantle of being the USF Swaim/MHver3
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The tricky part is that pulling only 6 MWC teams like in your proposed lineup is that it would cost the PAC $67.5M in penalty fees to the MWC if it takes exactly 6 team instead of 0 fees if it takes all 12. And then the 6 teams taken would also have to pay their own exit fees to the conference. Scheduling agreement includes steep penalties if Pac-12 poaches San Diego State, other Mountain West schools WWW.SANDIEGOUNIONTRIBUNE.COM Oregon State and Washington State would face eight-figure penalties if... This is why I can't see the new PAC being a mix of MWC and AAC. The PAC 2 are either trying to find a P4 home, or merging with the MWC and likely not including anyone else.
