Shaping up that way as of right now, but let's see where the dust settles after this weekend.
Not sure how a 3 way tie breaker would be decided if Memphis, UAB, and SMU end up at 11-7 in AAC play. They all were 1-1 against each other during the season.
Looks like the best path for us is to have UAB win out (which would include a win over SMU) and FAU beat Memphis. I believe that would mean that UAB would have to play Memphis before us.