I’m very aware. Pounding the table that analytics are important, useful, and even critical to a functioning sports organization today isn’t the conversation we’re having. We’re discussing whether or not to blindly use %’s in game theory.
I’m very pro-analytics, especially when it comes to roster construction in baseball.
But game theory isn’t a perfect science, especially not at the lower collegiate level where there’s more variables than the pro game.
Example - a lot of these generic game theory models would tell you to go for it on 4th and 1 whether you’re facing Navy or the New England Patriots. Surely we can agree there’s matchups and factors that need to be considered in these potential different circumstances, correct?
Thus, why you don’t blindly trust the numbers
note: I say “lower” in terms of a relatively bad football team that doesn’t execute at the level of a professional team.