TallyBull

If we have the option, I agree 100%. Btw I’d also like to echo the sentiments of others that you have been a welcome addition to this thread. Thanks for continuing to post relevant posts from X!

Nothing burger, has to do with some unknown team.

Good stuff, thanks for posting it. Based upon that info: Invite six AAC schools this year to form a basic 8-school conference for 2024, at about $23 m in exit fees per school (UC, Houston, and C. Florida left for $18 m but with two years' notice) Invite four MWC schools next year to form western/eastern divisions for 2025, at $17 m in exit fees school Going to need on average $20 m/school ($200 m to get to a 12-team conference). But responsibility for that full $20 m wouldn't have to fall entirely on the PAC. As a condition of joining what is (at least temporarily) a P5 conference, the PAC could negotiate with everyone involved - school assumes a portion, PAC assumes a portion, and a portion is built into the TV media partner contract. Or, if the contract is strong enough (say, $15 m/year per school), a school like USF could take out a loan and pay it back in 3-4 years if it throws its extra $7 m/year at it, then enjoy the full amount afterwards plus other CFP revenue. Point being, I don't believe the exit fees really prevent anything. And the PAC could, in fact, focus on MWC schools if it wanted to. But the trend seems to be going toward national conferences, and the rebuilt PAC will likely go that direction if necessary to maximize its TV money. I think that means more than two AAC schools. Would take bold moves and involve lots of moving parts (a motivated media partner, and who knows if that even exists). But not impossible. Oliver Luck could probably get it done.

Mandel's scenario that everyone's all worked up about ignores several facts and so shouldn't be taken too seriously: TV deals are all about markets over production/success (best candidates have both, but having both isn't absolutely required). That's why we've got UNT and Rice (and to a certain extent UTSA) in our conference. It would be foolish to come out as far as New Orleans for Tulane, the nation's 51st TV media market, and not a little further to Tampa, the nation's 13th TV media market (and unlike New Orleans, growing quickly). With the exception of Tulane and Memphis, he includes only MWC teams. I didn't read the article because it's behind a paywall, but based on the excerpt, he didn't really think or talk about exit fees. The MWC's teams are about double what the AAC's are (estimated $38 m vs. $18 m). I think Mandel was just throwing ideas out there but not really thinking through what's wise/feasible. I doubt the rebuilt PAC ever happens, but if it does, I expect it to start with 6-8 AAC teams in the near-term, which are more affordable if the conference and/or TV partner wishes to help them get out of their current conferences, then expand to include top MWC teams in 2-3 years, ultimately forming western and eastern divisions. Also, any GOR signed with a rebuilt PAC should be short term unless the TV contract is minimum $20 m/year. That would put USF in a far better financial position while we wait for the FSU/ACC issue to resolve. Just my two cents.

I’ve seen some discussion about how the ACC adding Stanford, Cal, and SMU might complicate things for USF, because they’ll want to create a western wing using Big 12 schools. That may be true the closer we get to 2030, but if FSU leaves sooner (like in the next year or two), the Big 12’s GOR will prevent it. Our best shot is to be added to the ACC with UConn and/or Tulane in the next few years, assuming we are at least mediocre in FB and BB and FSU and Clemson leave. However, yes I agree, we should work with 2PAC if they’re building a “best of the rest” conference with a short-term (5 year?) GOR. ACC opportunity may never come. But a PAC rebuild seems unlikely at this point.

I was surprised and disappointed when I first learned that the AAC had discontinued talks with the 2PAC. But Aresco’s primary job is to represent the mood of the AAC’s constituent universities. If they aren’t interested in expanding west, it’s his job to end the effort. News reports have said that a “majority” of the AAC’s schools weren’t interested in moving forward. Would that majority be the old guard (including USF) or new guard? I think it may have been the old guard that was lukewarm to the idea. And while this is pure speculation, maybe at least a portion of the old guard (namely, that portion of the old guard that applied to join a rebuilding PAC) wanted to end talks about the AAC admitting/merging with Wazzou and OSU in order to preserve the option of their leaving the AAC to join a rebuilding PAC. Not saying this is true - only saying that it’s a possibility. That would explain why the AAC isn’t interested in expanding west - because certain schools want to part ways with the current AAC membership and join a rebuilding PAC, and that opportunity is more important to them. Only the old guard schools themselves, maybe a potential media partner, and the 2PAC would know about this effort. Maybe Monday 2PAC and the MWC make their merger official. Wouldn’t surprise me at all. But I think 2PAC rebuilding the conference is still very much a possibility. Just because we don’t have any rumors or details doesn’t mean it’s not happening.

I'd expect in excess of $20 million. Who knows where specifically they land, but UC, Houston, and C. Florida gave about 2 years notice and still paid $18 million. SMU is leaving sooner and due to all the inflation the government has caused, I'd expect that number to increase significantly.

I understand what he was trying to do. What I'm saying is that it was a bad idea. He could have added UNT, FAU, and Charlotte later. Sadly, CFB is all about branding. You either brand up, or you brand down. We chose to brand down under the mistaken impression that we needed to. Those three schools would have joined in the future if SMU, USF, or ECU left. For example, we now know that SMU is leaving. We could have waited and invited UNT tomorrow. They still would have been available and accepted the invite.

I don't see a P2 rebuild happening. The best we can aim for at this point is a reverse merger that later adds 3-5 top MWC teams next year. But is Aresco up to the task? His (poor) decisions to add UNT, FAU, and Charlotte loom large. Not sure he knows what he's doing. And apparently on Wednesday he made some comments suggesting he's lukewarm about adding OSU and Wazzou.

Could be. On the other hand, if something’s likely to happen that you don’t agree with, why publish it? Better politically to just remain under the radar and not reveal your opposition. We’ll find out tomorrow.

#TheBig10IsComing

Not yet, but announcement coming next week, per sources /sarcasm

Well that's encouraging. They can't say they overlooked the issue!

QFT

I don't doubt it. But maybe they're reflecting sentiments shared by decisionmakers?

Would love to be in a conference with WVU again. I don't know how the Big 12 GOR or WVU academics impact that possibility, if at all. I'm sure WVU likes getting paid by the Big 12, but it seems like most WVU folks on X would prefer to be in the ACC - everything else being equal.

I know AAU isn't everything, but when it comes to the ACC eventually backfilling, I'm thinking they're going to prefer AAU over non-AAU. And that often gets lost in these discussions. ESPECIALLY if they onboard Stanford and Cal as expected. Culturally, the ACC fancies itself as a genteel, educated, southeastern basketball and football conference. If USF can manage to not suck terribly the next two years (like, be .500 on average), I think AAU schools USF and Tulane, and UConn, are the next three in line. USF especially if FSU leaves. I may be in the minority here, but I don't think Memphis ever gets into the ACC, primarily due to academics. If they do, it'll be after USF, Tulane, and UConn. But Memphis just feels more like a Big 12 school to me.

Yeah recent discussions about SDSU's attendance on Saturday had me thinking about this. We easily hit (feels like) temperatures of 100 (yes, I know Tampa has never officially hit 100) in September and early October. We absolutely gotta have shade in that stadium, to avoid roasting people and remove that excuse for not going to early afternoon games. EDIT: Also, the shade should cover the whole stadium, not just the big money people. I'm not a RENDERINGS NOW! guy but this is what I'm most interested in seeing when it comes to renderings.

It did. Hurricanes must be jealous of our OCS.

SMU isn't a P5 school. Anyways, the ACC acts like G5 schools have leprosy or something. CFB is such a mess.

Keep up the good fight, E.T.! Focus on what's in front of you and you'll be back to full strength in no time. God bless you and your family as you work through this.

California and Florida have very different cultures, especially when it comes to football. I'm confident that we will have righted the football ship by 2026 and will routinely sell out that stadium. The OCS had better include a shade structure, though. Otherwise, all bets are off.

I'm pretty sure USF didn't "willingly drop down." And in any case, it's this kind of thinking that makes me really hate CFB. There's lots to love, but also lots to hate. I'm not embarrassed that USF is in the AAC. Do I wish they were in a better conference? Sure, but really only because there's this strain of weird elitism involved in CFB, and I want whatever is best for USF. When I push away from the desk and really think about it, it all makes me feel kind of dirty. If Stanford/Cal/SMU are that desperate to avoid us, I'm not sure I really want to share a conference with them anyways. Good luck in the ACC. I don't understand why folks follow CFB at all if they take such a dim view of their schools. USF started in 1956. Football started in 1997 (I was there). They've come a very long way in a relatively short amount of time. I'm proud of my school. In that sense, I don't care what stupid football conference they're in. You do you of course. Those are my two cents. I think I'm going to check out of this realignment thread for a while. Good luck everyone and #GoBulls!