The teams that beat UAB don't appear to be that great when looking at their respective W/L records. I'm also not putting too much into the Tulane game. This isn't last year's Tulane team. They've beaten up on very weak teams and lost by 3 scores to the only good team they played.
UAB's defense is 124th against the run allowing 219ypg and 114th against the pass allowing 282ypg. They rank 131st in total defense ypg. USF's offense is 15th in rushing at 202ypg and 44th in passing at 256ypg. We rank 19th in total offense ypg.
USF's defense is 67th against the run allowing 143ypg and 90th against the pass allowing 256ypg. We rank 82nd in total defense ypg. UAB's offense is 99th in rushing at 113ypg and 18th in passing at 294ypg. They rank 48th in total offense ypg.
We've played much stiffer competition and in looking at UAB's games individually, it looks like their offensive #'s are inflated, a lot coming in cleanup time once the game's been out of reach. They also appear to have a tendency to fade in the 2nd half once their opponent makes adjustments.
If we want to win, we just need to limit turnovers and keep the run game going. I like our chances against their run game and our heavy blitzing should be able to disrupt their passing game.