Jim Johnson

On 11/26/2023 at 1:47 PM, Roaming Bull said:

I’m disappointed that the Duluth bowl isn’t played in Duluth, or at least in Minnesota. Why have a Duluth anything bowl just for it to be played in hoelando? Smh

You ready for this one?

The DULUTH Trading Company, the sponsor of the bowl game, ... is not based in Duluth!  (It was when the company was founded...)

5 hours ago, 79 Bull said:

I believe the transfer portal is open now until January 2nd.  Under the new rules, the next one will be only 30 days in the Spring.  Am I wrong on this?

It doesn't open until Monday (the day after championship selection day)... and the spring window was reduced to 15 days (May 1 - 15).
 

4 hours ago, BDYZR said:

I think you are correct. In the meantime...

2024 College football Transfer Portal

247SPORTS.COM

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2024 College football Transfer Portal

 

The window is not open for all schools ... only for those who have fired their coaches (or graduate transfers, who can enter at any time).

3 hours ago, BDYZR said:

Do the guys in the portal play in bowl games? Do you think that would have any effect on when they would enter?

Technically, there is no rule preventing it.  However, entering the transfer portal tends to mean "I don't want to be on this team any more" so most schools consider it a form of quitting and only play the players who WANT to be there.

Besides, if a player wants to both play in the bowl game AND enter the transfer portal, they can enter the portal after the game.  The window is 30 days from December 3rd -- which is January 2nd.

This was expected to be a bit of a down year, relatively speaking, after losing our top scorer and our top inside player (the latter to the WNBA) and with Sammie out with an injury.

The team should still bounce back in conference play.

On 11/23/2023 at 1:55 PM, Cat941 said:

FedEx founder's family donates $50 million for Memphis football stadium renovations

SPORTS.YAHOO.COM

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It's the largest gift in Memphis history.

Bringing this over from the realignment thread.  This stadium seats more than 50K, correct?  The home of the Liberty Bowl.   I'm again hoping that our OCS is "large" enough to be attractive.  

It's the same design as the old "Big Sombrero"

On 11/19/2023 at 10:25 AM, Jim Johnson said:

This could be quite difficult.  Allow me to explain...  (TL;DR at the bottom)

First, 5-7 teams qualify for bowl games if there are not enough 6-6 teams.

In 2023, there are 41 bowls from the NY6 to the Myrtle Beach bowl.  That means 82 teams get to go bowling.  After this week there are 70 slots accounted for: 69 teams with 6 wins or more and the winner of the Army/Navy game.  Two of those teams are James Madison and Jacksonville State - who are not technically bowl eligible.  So there are either 12 or 14 slots still available.

Today, there are 23 others teams with 5 wins (not including USF).  On the list, Army and Navy are the only ones who play each other, and Navy has one more game against SMU.  In theory, all 23 teams could win their 6th game, meaning there would be 10-12 teams with 6 wins that don't go bowling.  Now, it is just as unlikely that all 23 teams win as it would be for all 23 teams to lose.  So it comes down to how many of the 23 teams win or lose.

Second, 5-7 teams are selected in order of APR.

USF was 69th overall in APR in 2021-2022 (the latest API available). While, most of the teams ahead of USF already have 6 wins, USF is tied for 16th place among the teams who are 5-6 (11 teams) or 4-7 (4 teams) this week.  So for USF to make a bowl at 5-7, 15 other 5-7 teams would need to be selected or win their 6th game.  (One of the 4-7 teams ahead of USF, Wake Forest, plays a 5-6 team, Syracuse.  Cuse is behind USF, so the winner of that game would get in before a 5-7 USF team.)

Scenario 1: USF wins and is in.

This is the best scenario.  USF control's it's own bowl destiny.  The AAC probably won't have enough teams to fill it's slots, so as long as USF gets to 6 wins USF will go to a bowl game.

Scenario 2: USF loses and needs (A LOT OF) help.

Okay, USF loses to Charlotte.  Before the message board burns down, let's look at the help USF needs... and boy is it a lot:

There are 68 or 70 slots accounted for (depending on JMU and Jax St), so let's go with 70 eligible teams for now, meaning there are 12 left to fill.

The winner of Wake Forest @ Syracuse will get selected ahead of USF.  Syracuse is 5-6 but behind USF in APR and would be eligible with a win; Wake is 4-7 but is ahead of USF in APR.  So we're at 11 slots left to fill.

4-7 teams ahead of USF in APR that need to lose:  Michigan State (vs Penn St), Ball State (vs Miami OH), and Middle Tennessee (@ Sam Houston St)

That leaves 22 teams that could all get to 6-6.

• 5-6 teams that are ahead of USF in APR (9 total): Minnesota (vs Wisconsin), Rice (vs FAU), Miss St (vs Ole Miss), UCF (vs Houston), South Carolina (vs Clemson), California (@ UCLA), Florida (vs FSU), EMU (@ Buffalo), Nebraska (vs Iowa). 
  • It doesn't really matter if these teams win or lose, as they would get a bowl game ahead of USF regardless of the result.
  • If they all win and get to 6-6 they take 9 of the 11 slots automatically.  If they all lose, they could still get slots ahead of USF depending on the results of the following 14 games.
• 5-6 teams that are behind USF in APR (13 total): No Illinois (@ Kent St), ODU (vs Ga State), Marshall (vs Ark St), Louisiana (vs LA Monroe), Colo St (@ Hawaii), Utah St (@ New Mexico), Wazzu (@ Washington), CMU (vs Toledo), Va Tech (UVa), TCU (@ Oklahoma), BYU (@ Ok St), Illinois (vs Northwestern)
  • A 5-7 USF needs 13 out of 14 of these teams to lose  (10 out 14 if JMU and Jax St don't get eligible).

------------------------------------------------------------------

TL;DR:

1. USF wins and they are in
2. USF loses and can still get in if 12 out of 13 specific 5-6 teams lose this week; these are teams behind USF in APR.
3. IF JMU and Jax St don't get to go bowling, the number drops to 10 out of 13.

 

 

Just a note on the above.  USF cannot go to a bowl as a 5-7 team now.  There are 75 teams with 6 wins and too many teams ahead of USF in the APR rankings.

USF has to win tonight.

- NM -

13 minutes ago, Outlaw said:

MAybe we are getting a surprise and a blast from the past.

That is the scuttlebutt.  I don't know what the surprise is, but there will be a new uniform this week.  One that Golesh helped select, apparently.

50 minutes ago, SilverBull said:

I got roasted here for suggesting previously that USF should have more diligently pursued intergovernmental cooperation, planning and financing of a more comprehensive multi-purpose facility.  But it seems everyone covets control over good sense.  Very shortsighted IMO.

Not roasting you ... but I would assume (perhaps incorrectly) they looked at every possible source of funding.

However, let's not forget the Rays will stay in St. Petersburg because Hillsborough County and the City of Tampa did not want to provide any help for that stadium.  Plus state law limits funds for stadium construction... revenue sources that helped build Tropicana Field or Raymond James Stadium (hotel bed taxes, sales tax rebates, etc) are not available for college stadiums.  So local governments would have had to spend property tax dollars -- something that would have been very unpopular.

The City of Memphis is using state grant money for this purpose... not sure what the source of those funds would be, but Florida doesn't have many grant funds that could be tapped like that.

2 hours ago, BDYZR said:

I like the way you added teams. Gives USF a better chance.

USF will be on that side of the equation... it's a large public school with a significant athletics budget.

The problems that P5 schools talk about is having Ohio State, Kent State, and Youngstown State all playing by the same rules in Division I -- and there is some logic to that argument... but USF operates more like Ohio State than Kent State... My guess is we see some dividing line around $50 million in athletic budgets.

5 hours ago, Bull Matrix said:

USF will be there…

I don't get this.  It's not the P5 against the NCAA... it's the P5 against G5 and FCS.  It's a membership-based organization.  And those schools can't really "leave" the NCAA entirely for all of their sports (the way the NCAA, the NJCAA, and NAIA are entirely separate.)

Everyone seems to forget 1977... when Division I split.  That is what needs to happen with the FBS... a new division with it's own rules for 70-80 schools.

23 hours ago, Rocky Style said:

I would dig that!  Do I remember that Boston College was ranked #2 with Matt Ryan before us in the #2 ranking wheel of pain?

The week AFTER us:

13 minutes ago, Gatorbull325 said:

You act like we are the only ones stuck on a losing journey. If u r an older Tampa Bay gan they sucked for some years. Im a Saints fan and we started the paper bag over the head trend. Thats just how it goes for some teams. Ive seen plenty of perennially bad teams become good. If you lost patience, then take a break from football until we are a winning team. I'm enjoying the journey win or lose. But if you are no longer enjoying the experience or if it gets emotionally draining then take a break. I did it with my Saints many times during their really bad years. I really dislike Bobby Herbert. I hated him and the Saints for their loyalty to him. I feel this team is on the right track. Usually its more of "wishing" but now I believe it.

Bills fan here, Gator.  Losing journey is a way of life. HA!

21 hours ago, 79 Bull said:

I say we’ll go bowling (even if 5-7).

This could be quite difficult.  Allow me to explain...  (TL;DR at the bottom)

First, 5-7 teams qualify for bowl games if there are not enough 6-6 teams.

In 2023, there are 41 bowls from the NY6 to the Myrtle Beach bowl.  That means 82 teams get to go bowling.  After this week there are 70 slots accounted for: 69 teams with 6 wins or more and the winner of the Army/Navy game.  Two of those teams are James Madison and Jacksonville State - who are not technically bowl eligible.  So there are either 12 or 14 slots still available.

Today, there are 23 others teams with 5 wins (not including USF).  On the list, Army and Navy are the only ones who play each other, and Navy has one more game against SMU.  In theory, all 23 teams could win their 6th game, meaning there would be 10-12 teams with 6 wins that don't go bowling.  Now, it is just as unlikely that all 23 teams win as it would be for all 23 teams to lose.  So it comes down to how many of the 23 teams win or lose.

Second, 5-7 teams are selected in order of APR.

USF was 69th overall in APR in 2021-2022 (the latest API available). While, most of the teams ahead of USF already have 6 wins, USF is tied for 16th place among the teams who are 5-6 (11 teams) or 4-7 (4 teams) this week.  So for USF to make a bowl at 5-7, 15 other 5-7 teams would need to be selected or win their 6th game.  (One of the 4-7 teams ahead of USF, Wake Forest, plays a 5-6 team, Syracuse.  Cuse is behind USF, so the winner of that game would get in before a 5-7 USF team.)

Scenario 1: USF wins and is in.

This is the best scenario.  USF control's it's own bowl destiny.  The AAC probably won't have enough teams to fill it's slots, so as long as USF gets to 6 wins USF will go to a bowl game.

Scenario 2: USF loses and needs (A LOT OF) help.

Okay, USF loses to Charlotte.  Before the message board burns down, let's look at the help USF needs... and boy is it a lot:

There are 68 or 70 slots accounted for (depending on JMU and Jax St), so let's go with 70 eligible teams for now, meaning there are 12 left to fill.

The winner of Wake Forest @ Syracuse will get selected ahead of USF.  Syracuse is 5-6 but behind USF in APR and would be eligible with a win; Wake is 4-7 but is ahead of USF in APR.  So we're at 11 slots left to fill.

4-7 teams ahead of USF in APR that need to lose:  Michigan State (vs Penn St), Ball State (vs Miami OH), and Middle Tennessee (@ Sam Houston St)

That leaves 22 teams that could all get to 6-6.

• 5-6 teams that are ahead of USF in APR (9 total): Minnesota (vs Wisconsin), Rice (vs FAU), Miss St (vs Ole Miss), UCF (vs Houston), South Carolina (vs Clemson), California (@ UCLA), Florida (vs FSU), EMU (@ Buffalo), Nebraska (vs Iowa). 
  • It doesn't really matter if these teams win or lose, as they would get a bowl game ahead of USF regardless of the result.
  • If they all win and get to 6-6 they take 9 of the 11 slots automatically.  If they all lose, they could still get slots ahead of USF depending on the results of the following 14 games.
• 5-6 teams that are behind USF in APR (13 total): No Illinois (@ Kent St), ODU (vs Ga State), Marshall (vs Ark St), Louisiana (vs LA Monroe), Colo St (@ Hawaii), Utah St (@ New Mexico), Wazzu (@ Washington), CMU (vs Toledo), Va Tech (UVa), TCU (@ Oklahoma), BYU (@ Ok St), Illinois (vs Northwestern)
  • A 5-7 USF needs 13 out of 14 of these teams to lose  (10 out 14 if JMU and Jax St don't get eligible).

------------------------------------------------------------------

TL;DR:

1. USF wins and they are in
2. USF loses and can still get in if 12 out of 13 specific 5-6 teams lose this week; these are teams behind USF in APR.
3. IF JMU and Jax St don't get to go bowling, the number drops to 10 out of 13.

17 hours ago, Bullcocky said:

With that disclaimer out of the way, the reason that I stopped going to games and watching usf football this year is, like pookah and red were promoting, ive been rowing the boat for a very long time. I just don't know where our end destination is?

It's not about the destination, it's about the journey.

Any 10 year plan that any school has - from Alabama to Youngstown State - is useless right now.  There are so many more changes coming to college athletics, and they are impossible to predict.  And I don't mean realignment.

There are three class action lawsuits against the NCAA and conferences to claim damages from former athletes who were not allowed to make money via NIL.  This has the chance to bankrupt the NCAA, which is not some independent organization -- the NCAA is a membership organization, so anything the NCAA has to pay will be divided among the members.  Many schools will not be able to afford this.

There are efforts to classify all student athletes as employees, both in the court system and with the National Labor Relations Board.  The NLRB already ruled that Northwestern's football players ARE in fact employees, but did not grant unionization because the Big Ten includes both public and private schools.  Employment status would have one positive effect: no need for NIL collectives, because universities can pay employees whatever they want.  Plus, Title IX will still be in effect - which could impact how much is paid out to male "student-athlete-employees" (just like it currently impacts things like total-cost-of-attendance and the academic stipends).

These will happen in the next five to six years, and there is no way to really plan how this will impact athletics.

No to mention, it's impossible to predict when the next steps in realignment will happen... it could be in 2026 or 2036.

College athletics will be undergoing more change in the next ten years than we've seen in the last 100.

On 11/18/2023 at 6:56 AM, Triple B said:

That was before the MWC merger was on the table, wasn't it? Could that possibly change that ........ hopefully.

Nope... and the merger doesn't matter.  B1G and SEC wanted just the top 12 teams... other conferences wanted 6+6.  So this 5+7 is the compromise.

On 11/17/2023 at 4:35 PM, 350_BULL said:

LMAO we are currently in such bad shape. Pretty much the entire MWC is getting a life preserve off the realignment Titanic. Holy ****.

Wow if this happens what a blow that would be. Pretty much being left in the dust by the likes of Nevada and San Jose St... FML.

Going to make a wish to the big man above to help us get in to a better conference. Please Santa help us!!

The MW isn't getting that much of a benefit.  This new conference isn't that much better than the old conference with Oregon State and Washington State being added.  They are still a "G5" conference.

It would be like adding Boston College and Syracuse to the AAC.  Sure they're more well known, but OSU and WSU are not that much better overall.

The AAC slipped behind the MWC when the Big 12 took three teams, this "Mountain PAC 12" doesn't change things that much... and the AAC has greater potential to move back ahead of AAC at the top of the G5.  Remember, the proposed merger won't happen until the 2026-2027 season, so the AAC has the chance to earn two playoff bids before that happens.

2 hours ago, Triple B said:

Wonder what the tv contract will look like for the PMWAC? That's where the real separation will be ....... as long as there's still 6 auto qualifiers for CFP. May even help in that regard.

There won't be 6 AQs... They are moving to a 5+ 7 model.

"The CFP’s school presidents must vote unanimously for the 5+7 change, and Washington State president Kirk Schulz is the Pac-12 representative, but it would be surprising if the recommendation is not approved. There is no date set for the next Board of Managers call on which the presidents could make the change official, but they will meet at the national championship game."

Commissioners recommend 5+7 model for CFP in 2024

THEATHLETIC.COM

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The CFP management committee is recommending the 5+7 format to the CFP Board of Managers for the 2024 and 2025 seasons.

1 hour ago, MaltLiquorBull said:

This would put the current MWC schools a notch above the AAC.

 

 

 

You mean they weren't already with the departures of Houston, Cincinnati, UCF, and SMU ?

If they weren't already, adding Oregon State and Washington State isn't enough to do that, IMHO.

For those who don't want to be the island in a west-coast-based conference you're in luck.  It's not gonna happen.

25 minutes ago, puc86 said:

Colorado was one of the least winningest teams before their move, SMU was not the most winningest team and Boise is still in the cold despite out meriting almost every call up. We should be better than we have been but no one cares about what is happening in the AAC on a day today, they do care about complete obscurity though. Showing signs of life is good and helps sell potential, if we are going 12-0 and no one is caring I would argue that hurts us more than helps us. 

 

Right.

Boise State has not had a sub .500 season since 1996 and 1997, their first two seasons in FBS.  As member of FCS and D-II, they had 3 under .500from 1970 to 1995 (1986, 1992, and 1993).  Before 1986, their last losing season was 1946 when they were Boise Junior College.

Winning -- even a LOOOOOONGGG tradition of winning -- does not guarantee a move up.

Investing in the sport - like building an IPF and an OCS - that does tip the scales slightly... along with winning... and market ... and a number of other items.  The question is whether the total balance will be enough for USF to get the call up.  I believe it will.

Any ONE thing is not enough by itself.  It's the WHOLE picture.

3 hours ago, Gatorbull325 said:

Other than the Grad students on our team, I have no idea who else is out of eligibility. 

 

#	FULL NAME	POS.	HT.	ACADEMIC YEAR	WT.	PREVIOUS SCHOOL
1	Braxton Clark	CB	6-4	Gr.	204	Nebraska
2	Michael Brown-Stephens	WR	6-0	Gr.	189	Minnesota
3	Brian Norris	LB	6-2	Gr.	230
4	De'Juan Sease	DT	6-2	Gr.	287	Allen University
5	Donovan Jennings	OL	6-5	Gr.	333
6	Daquan Evans	DB	5-11	Sr.	190
7	Jayson Littlejohn	TE	6-4	Sr.	248	College of the Sequoias
8	Matthew Hill	S	6-1	Sr.	192	Auburn
9	Michel Dukes	RB	5-10	Sr.	194	Clemson
10	Kelley Joiner	RB	5-9	Sr.	184
11	Jason Vaughn	DE	6-5	Sr.	248
12	Nay'Quan Wright	RB	5-9	Sr.	204	Florida
13	Immanuel Hickman	DE	6-3	Sr.	296	ECU
14	Jonathan Ross	DE	6-3	Sr.	246	Bowie State
15	Gerry Bohanon	QB	6-3	Sr.	226	Baylor
16	Jhalyn Shuler	LB	6-3	Sr.	220	Coffeyville CC
17	JaBari Roberson	CB	5-11	Sr.	163	N.E. Oklahoma A&M
18	Timarcus Simpson	S	5-11	Sr.	190	Eastern Michigan
19	Dominic Gonnella	RB	5-11	Sr.	211
20	Rico Watson	DL	6-0	Sr.	236	Florida State/Robert Morris
21	Brendan Farrell	K	6-0	Sr.	215	Virginia
22	Andrew Mata'afa	LB	6-3	Sr.	225	Utah

Yeah, it's hard to say for sure ... With COVID, anyone who was on a roster in 2020 gets 6 years to play 5 instead of 5 to play 4.

Take Bohannon, he played a few games in 2018 so that counts as a redshirt - then played each of the next four seasons.  Thus, as he has been out for all of 2023, he technically still has a 5th season of eigibility, but might need a medical redshirt to get a 7th year to play 5 if he hasn't already.

Hickman shows in his bio that 2023 is his last year, but he took a redshirt at ECU in 2019, and played 2020, 2021, and 2022 for the pirates before transferring here.  So he's played 4 in 5 years, and should have his covid year available...

Dukes and Wright have also done the 'redshirt" and play four seasons in five years. Do they each get a covid year? 

Does Joiner get a medical redshirt for last year?

Plus ... Golesh might ask people who are graduating to move on as part of his "talent evaluation" process.  Just because someone has a year left doesn't mean they'll be here.

1 minute ago, E.T. said:

Would think they want well traveling fans for the local economy

ESPN doesn't care about that.  They own the bowls - the local committee is there to sell sponsorships and tickets.