UCF_rustbucket

17 minutes ago, Triple B said:

The hell you say .....

Ancient history I should have said Lmao old money SWC dreams. Even though they haven't won a thing since the death penalty.

17 minutes ago, Gat-Rat Bull said:

Anyone know if other AAC fan message boards have a realignment thread like this one? It'd be interesting to see what our conference mates are saying about their chances to move up.

SMU does. They're accepting the situation now but were pretty entitled thinking they deserved a spot purely due to history.

1 minute ago, Bull94 said:

insane. they will be paying almost as much to leave a conference that we will be paying for a stadium.

Oh and their payouts after subtracting $30m each year won't be much different than what they are currently getting. they go to the SEC (especially the west) and they are nothing more than a middle of the road program having to compete on much lower revenues.

I'm still not convinced they have an actual way out. This feels like a bluff. We'll see come August 15 but they seem full of hot air and just want to make noise.

3 hours ago, 79 Bull said:

Anyone think we may be headed for this...

5 20 team conferences, so 100 teams which means that 33 G5 teams are left out in the no dough cold initially.  12 team NC playoff for 5 champs plus 7 next highest ranked teams with no more than 4 teams from a single conference.  The 5th conference could actually be a relegation situation like soccer.  4 teams are demoted each year and 4 teams are promoted from the 33 teams based on some performance formula for the last 2 years.

Within each conference would be 4 5 team pods where each year you play the other 4 in your pod plus rotate the other 3 pods (every 3 years) so you play 9 conference games and 3 OOC every year.  The top 2 highest ranked teams that win their pod are in that conference's championship game.  Bowl structure, playoff and NY6 would remain virtually the same.

Just thinking out load.

5 x 20 is too clunky to work. The G5 conferences can't get bloated the same way the P5 can, especially if they're also geographically stretched. It was one of the reasons the 16 team WAC collapsed and the MWC core broke away. 

2 minutes ago, Peatearpan said:

So.. UCF.

 

wait, p2. Nevermind

First of all, how dare you

3 hours ago, Bull Gooner said:

I'm sure this information is out there somewhere - but I wonder how many subscribers Apple TV picked up when Messi came to the MLS. (Apple is the "NFL Sunday Ticket" for MLS)

With everyone cutting the cord, it's not crazy to imagine more people having Apple TV than PAC12 Network. A very quick search says ~25M Apple TV subscribers which is ~7.5% of US households. I'd bet that's more than have the PAC12 Network.

So if PAC12 ties revenue to subscriptions, this might not be a bad deal. 

I guess we'll see what AZ does while we wait for details.

The problem with this is that it depends how the PAC content is sold. For MLS, it's a standalone subscription not included with the base Apple TV. Those that do have Apple TV base package can get MLS at a discount, but it's still an extra. So a new PAC package would start from scratch just like the MLS one, which supposedly has a little over a million subscribers per one report.

38 minutes ago, Bull Matrix said:

I do believe at some point probably not in our lifetimes that the P2 will be on its own. There will be P2 and then the rest. I for one won’t be paying attention to P2 but will follow the rest of college football. 

I also believe some variation of this, but with the P2 shedding some of the moochers in each conference.

2 hours ago, Bull Matrix said:

It just seems that the recruiting has improved which makes me wonder what USF is selling lately. OCS, New playoff format, location, IPF, schedule, possible P5 invite….

All these are important and part of the formula, but recruiting is also relationship building. CAG and staff are hitting that mark in a way that CJS just didn't. It was seriously a bad look at CJS slow rolled the urgency to hit the recruiting trail once hired and instead took his sweet time at Clemson.

20 minutes ago, michibull said:

I think the island thing is not very impactful. It would save UCF one trip somewhere else every year for their teams, I would think UCF would take that over us being in the Big12 with them. 

Exactly right. Even in our time in the AAC we had you guys right nearby but beyond that, our closest opponents were Tulane, Memphis, and ECU. Those are all closer than any Big 12 conference mates but not by a lot lol

1 hour ago, Cubanbull said:

We have many positives and have won in past. But let’s be realistic we are horrible in football and basketball lately, for a conference like the B12 or PAC that is reeling and needs names that will bolster the way people look at it, adding USF at 1-11 and with 4 wins in last three years would be a PR nightmare.

We need to win this year, so we at least have the semblance that we are on our way up

Great points Cubanbull. I'll add to this that the difference between a USF team that has struggled recently vs a Colorado team that's struggled recently is the big picture strategy in being able to damage a fellow P5 conference contending for the #3 spot.

4 hours ago, Cat941 said:

So according to a recent article by McMurphy the B12 will add 1-3 more schools along with Colorado.  Likely PAC teams if they can get 'em.  Of course Brett failed to include USF on the list of teams being considered.  Only Memphis, UConn, UNLV and SDSU are the G5 teams potentially to be added to the B12.  How ridiculous!  Not even considered?  UCF will have the highest travel burden in the NCAA this fall in their debut season in the B12.  

While McMurphy mentioned several G5, there's some scuttlebutt that really only UConn is being considered because Yormark loves them and wants to have a NYC presence of some sort. A few writers have noted that it's either another PAC team for 14, UConn for 14 if none bite, or potentially 3 PAC teams to get to 16.

1 hour ago, Bull Matrix said:

Yeah I remember when USF was in Big East. I thought we were set lol. Life is unpredictable 

100%. At best, I can more or less say we're looking good for this next decade ish period but then once the next TV contract round starts, nothing is guaranteed lol 

23 minutes ago, Bull Matrix said:

I do believe now we are seeing all the power conferences jockeying for positions. Interesting times! Welcome to another summer of chaos lol

3 summers in a row now lol when do we rest?!?

2 hours ago, Bull Matrix said:

What people need to understand is that the rest of the ACC can chose to take a lower amount. Why would they want to keep FSU when they want to leave? No sense waiting it out until 2036 and end up getting nothing. Take the money and let FSU go and be happy. Divorces suck so it is best to speed up the process and settle. 

Messy splits aren't great but FSU is at such a disadvantage leverage wise. Oklahoma and Texas were only about to get out 1 year early since the Big 12 and networks were willing to negotiate. 13 years early is a giant gap. But I definitely don't think the other ACC teams should give up revenue to appease FSU and Clemson since you know it won't stop them from leaving as soon as possible anyway. Giving into Texas for years didn't do the Big 12 any good as far as keeping them. Ride out the money train and then reload on teams once they exit. 

1 hour ago, Bull Matrix said:

FSU just called for a trustee meeting this Wednesday 8/2 regarding conferences alignment 

Not quite.

"While the timing is interesting – any school planning to leave the ACC in the next year would have to notify the conference in writing by Aug. 15 – this meeting's agenda focuses on budget approvals and has been in the works for weeks, according to the President's office."

https://www.tallahassee.com/story/sports/college/fsu/martin/2023/07/28/florida-state-board-of-trustees-meeting-set-for-wednesday-aug-2/70484383007/

1 hour ago, rollinbull said:

I'm going on a hunch that Kelly etc. already have an agreed   plan with a conference and are waiting in the wings, so to speak . I believe that Kelly was told to build Stadium , indoor practice field etc.   Just my 2 centavos 

Conferences don't make promises like that. You either meet what they're looking for when a window to add appears or you don't. Everything MK is doing is based on the feedback received by the Big 12 when not selected to improve USFs chances next time but there's unlikely to be an secret handshake agreement from the Big 12 or ACC.

6 minutes ago, hm101 said:

University of Colorado Video Archive

CU.NEW.SWAGIT.COM

Watching the live stream. They are gone. 

Realignment is like the game on the field. 

Playing safe is playing to lose. Pac 12 played it safe, over and over, for many years, and lost big time.

Good luck to the rest of the conference.

Not only played it safe when they had multiple chances to be aggressive, but they also played it slow and stupid. 

Not sure if we've really talked about it here but it needs to be mentioned that the PAC commissioner's first actual plan was keeping UCLA. He legitimately thought they'd be able to twist their arm with the UC board was basing their pie in the sky numbers fully on that. Pretty sure that played a big part in them not taking ESPN's offer when the tv market was better. They kept dragging it out because they expected UCLA back. Then it blew up and it's like they couldn't accept the terrible options due to lack of the LA market coupled with the media companies tightening their belts.

54 minutes ago, Bull Matrix said:

If you recall, the PAC 12 had their chance to expand years ago but opted to stay the status quo and basically gave the chance for big 12 to survive. They have no one to blame but themselves. So now I’m going to say the power 4 will be SEC BigTen ACC big 12 

The PAC had 2 chances even. 10+ years ago when they were poised to take 6 big 12 teams and then 2 years ago when OU and UT announced they were leaving. If they had offered any remaining big 12 team back then, they accept in a heartbeat. But we've been talking about the past year after they lost the LA schools and you still thought they were above the Big 12 lol 

Not taking any Big 12 schools when they had their chance was the first strike but it wouldn't become obvious until they kept fumbling tv negotiations. They got to the table before the Big 12 and proclaimed how that gives them an advantage. Then when the Big 12 got a deal done, they now claimed that being last was better. It's the Big East collapse redux.

8 minutes ago, GoBulls84 said:

So the reports were all that Colorado's Board of Regents was voting today right? Does anyone know if that's actually happened yet? What if the Pac 12 actually did give them TV numbers and they're voting to approve locking it in? That would be hilarious to me

5PM ET. Will be live streamed. Absolutely no sources are saying anything possible about tv numbers ready to be approved. Would be a funny twist but not remotely possible because you'd have all the PAC 12 schools holding board meetings, not just Colorado. 

1 hour ago, Bull Matrix said:

If true then it just proves how bad leadership is within the PAC12. I would rank them below some of the G5 conferences at this point 

This is why I repeatedly have been telling you that your PAC > Big 12 posts and ones saying the PAC can pick the Big 12 were way off. The PAC is in an extremely vulnerable spot until teams get locked down again so it always made more sense for a PAC team to be tempted to make the move for stability rather than a Big 12 team pay $50M+.

13 minutes ago, Bull Matrix said:

That would have to happen after the contract expires. No way the G5 would agree to make changes to only include 4 conference champions after they battled to get 6 conferences champs 

The current setup for the the 12 team CFP is only for 2024 and 2025. The current contract will expire after that so it's possible from 26 onward we have a different number of conference champ slots. The SEC and B1G will push for more at large spots.

16 minutes ago, Bull Matrix said:

Exactly. The travel would be worse than what it would be for big 12. I personally would be against WSU or OSU to AAC. They would fit better in MWC. Also I been hearing that big ten may not be expanding anytime soon as they want to see how the new playoff format does. I won’t be shocked to see these big conferences split up into two which would probably take away the playoff spots from G5 imo 

Yeah, the new B1G commissioner isn't as hot on expansion so they'll probably hold for a little. See how the playoff slots change after 2026.

24 minutes ago, Bull Matrix said:

More possible chaos speculation…

If Oregon State and WSU get demoted to G5 money, AAC doesn't make sense. Too expensive for not enough money. They're MWC bound at that point.

1 hour ago, Bull Matrix said:

So basically we will probably be looking at ACC staying strong

There's a sweet spot you're looking for. The ACC isn't adding G5 without taking losses. So you want them to lose between 2 to 4 because then they're in a position to add, but still with an attractive core.

If they lose too little or nothing at all, no reason to add. If they lose too much to the P2, anyone left is rushing for the Big 12 rather than be left out.

20 minutes ago, Cubanbull said:

That moves changes nothing for both leagues. Now if they were adding Oregon and Washington those would be huge moves.

On its own, agreed. But it would also serve as the opening **** to cause panic among the other teams, letting them know there's only a limited amount of life boats. ORWA would be a coup but they probably don't wanna pay Big 12 exit fees for just a temporary home as they wait for the B1G.