UCF_rustbucket

1 minute ago, John Lewis said:

I believe that would be correct based on what the vote was.

If we want to be in the ACC, then FSU will have to be on the move. I'm pretty sure that's been stated here on multiple occasions.

I believe Miami was a yes for this expansion. But they'd definitely flip to a no if USF was included.

4 minutes ago, Cat941 said:

Calford is going to be playing east coast teams.  Maybe they have hopes to be invited to the ACC in the distant future.  The MWC offers regionality, but conference realignment is not about that lately.  Must include that I have no idea what will happen.  It wouldn't surprise me in the least if PNW teams join the MWC.  I can't control it.  

That's probably their hope. Or a Big 12 invite. I just don't see them as attractive candidates and see more potential in select G5 schools over them. They're almost destined to remain left behind so might as well be left behind and play regional opponents.

5 minutes ago, Cat941 said:

One thing that might be of value to the PNW teams is that the AAC is the only conference that has shown upward mobility for their teams.  One thing that USF is counting on, I'm sure.  Who knows.  

But would that apply to the PNW schools? They were just in a P5 league. They're about as attractive as they'll ever be and no P4 league wanted them. If they join the AAC, they're in a league with schools in the southeast, a much more attractive spot for the next schools to get elevated from. They'd just be joining far flung schools with a better chance of leaving them than the MWC schools. They may be better off in a solid, stable MWC than an AAC that already took another bit and is at risk for more. They'd basically be flying cross country to play in CUSA if there are more defections.

14 minutes ago, BullyPulpit said:

So what....do you really get excited about the prospect of playing Oregon State and Washington State? I sure don't. A rebuilt PAC with Stanford and Cal would have been much more enticing. OSU and WSU seem destined to land in the MWC now. There is no advantage to them going to the AAC. 

Yup. You could see some connection to the AAC profile with Calford, big city academic schools. But with only the little brother PNW schools left, those are 100% MWC schools. Makes no sense for them to be on an island for barely a higher payout in the AAC vs MWC. The slight lead the AAC has in TV money would have gone to fund their cross country travel anyway so might as well stay regional.

45 minutes ago, Outlaw said:

The pac4 don't belong in the sec. 

I think he means the 4 ACC schools that are blocking the Calford move.

1 minute ago, Bull Matrix said:

Well said. Either USF eventually ends up in ACC or big 12 depending on if or who loses teams. Gives USF a chance to win on the field instead of being invited as a loser so I see it as a win win for all 

Exactly. You want both of them to stay in tact so one is guaranteed to send an invite. Because if one is too weak, the other will want to solidify themselves as #3 and cannibalize the other. So the leftovers of #4 would want to backfill but the resulting conference would be AAC+ at best.

My honest take on what this does for your chances, it's not as bad as you think. It means you won't get into the ACC during this round but that honestly didn't seem like an option. They're trying to keep pace with the Big 12 so I'm surprised SMU is even in the mix. 

But the reason I see this as a positive for y'all is that it protects the ACC for next round. It's not gonna stop the top of the ACC from leaving, but it keeps the remaining core stronger. If you're left too weak after a raid, the vultures come down on you. In the ACC's case that would mean the Pitt and Louisville type teams leaving for the Big 12 instead of staying and trying to build back up. I don't think the ACC will be able to raid from the Big 12, but this will stop it from getting raided by them too.

3 minutes ago, Outlaw said:

Hate to say but we are not getting called up anytime soon. AD MK blew his chance getting USF to a power conference by hiring and extending Jeff Scott. If we did the logical thing and fire Scott after year two.   Then imagine if we hired a competent or successful coach like Herman and just went 7-5 or 8-4 last year. We probably would have been in the b12 expansion. 

Tbh, it was too late to change much by the Jeff Scott hire. The Big 12 invites came right before the 2021 season, so CJS second season. Even if he went 7-5 his first year that wouldn't have raised attendance and viewership to where you'd want them fast enough.

41 minutes ago, Bull Matrix said:

I still don’t get why SMU’s attendance flat out sucks. Probably because they are a smaller private school in the middle of Dallas. 

Smaller ish private school that draws a large chunk of its students from out of state. I think TCU has a better connection with the local t shirt fans. Noticed the same thing with Tulane. They had sad attendance when we played them the first time last season. Got better for the CCG, and then had great numbers in the cotton bowl when their alumni from across the country were able to plan with more time.

This isn't great news for y'all, but seems like a desperate move by SMU trying to get the last ticket to the promised land.

3 minutes ago, Mission9 said:

Louisville and Cincinnati had been around awhile and had played a lot of the bigger eastern teams over the years.  Not to mention, they have name brands in basketball which people recognize.  I never thought USF would move up before them.  

Exactly. And given that Cincy was left behind that time even despite their history, there realistically just wasn't anything USF could have done differently. Not unless you built 2 stadiums and went to like 5 BCS bowls in your 8 years in the Big East or something insane like that lol

22 minutes ago, Mission9 said:

True.  It is hard to logically argue that USF would have beaten out any of the teams which have been promoted since the breakup of the Big East. Even if a new stadium had been built 10 or so years ago. 

It's definitely hard to make that argument. It makes sense when you look at the 3 teams left behind as the Big East became the AAC. 

Cincy, recent CUSA callup. USF, recent CUSA callup with barely a decade in FBS when the Big East was falling apart. UConn, recent FCS callup with less than a decade in FBS. Only Louisville made it out from the 3 CUSA callups and barely. They needed the Rutgers + Maryland to the B1G move to happen in order for an ACC spot to open up for them. 

All this to say, odds were very long no matter what since the breakup happened with USF and others still so very new to the BCS level and in some cases, even FBS.

1 hour ago, GoBulls84 said:

Isn't CUSA getting paid like $700K a year? If the AAC wanted to take a CUSA team (assuming we still have a $7M a year payout), it wouldn't be that cost prohibitive to buy out $3.5-4.2M in GOR

In theory. But look at the current CUSA lineup. Not very exciting. If the AAC has to raid from there, it means they just got raided themselves. Aresco somehow hung onto the $7M per team per year deal after losing UConn, Cincy, UCF, and Houston. If the AAC loses another 4, say SMU, USF, Tulane, and Memphis or Rice, I can't see the $7M still holding. What's left should still be higher than CUSA but now you may be down to like $2M to $3M a year at best.

58 minutes ago, Bull Matrix said:

Huh... That's different.

34 minutes ago, Ghostbuster said:

Sure he'll regurgitate that nonsense but take potshots at USF's chances moving up....  Come on, the PAC does not have a viable path for option 3.  Their TV deal ends this year and no team from MWC/AAC can leave in less than a year to join them.

MWC - "Per conference bylaws, the $16.5 million buyout jumps to $34 million if notice is given later than July 1".  That's from a recent article about SDSU's quick 180, when they tried to leave the MWC for the PAC only to turn tail and say they wanted to stick with MWC.

AAC- Just made Cincy/UCF/Houston pay 18 million to leave sooner than the required 27 month notice.  Fee would be higher for a (now) quicker exit; and what idiot would pay that much to join a 4 team conference that doesn't have a media deal?  

Even SDSU saw the writing on the wall and noped back to the MWC.  So the PAC is only pretending like they have an option to expand.  That ship sailed.

UConn actually paid less than we did. They left with 11 months notice and paid just $17M. We felt kind of ripped but since the Big 12 pay bump was worth it we took it. 

5 minutes ago, michibull said:

Hahahaha, you honestly can’t tell me that you would prefer UTSA/UAB over UCONN while trying to keep a Power 5 conference (retain the auto 5) alive so WBB can win. UCONN is infinitely better than them in academics, athletics, brand name, market, fan base, history, do you need me to continue?

Overall athletically, it's UConn by a mile. Football wise there's more potential for the 2 southern teams. But they've got a ways to go with support and funding. But UConn would be a long shot to join a south/Midwest/west coast based football first conference after not liking being in a south/Midwest football first AAC.

5 hours ago, USF_Bullsharks said:

You are probably right, however, I really enjoy the irony in my story so I'm sticking to it  

The core idea of your story very likely happened but with Oregon and Washington instead of the LA schools. They were probably setting themselves up to follow the LA schools by asking for unrealistic tv money.

21 minutes ago, USFBULL_08 said:

So, Apple didn't want that to happen, but let them walk to the networks anyway and now they'll get an even worse match up of Oregon State vs Tulane\SMU\USF\Memphis. Make that make sense?

Apple wants to be all or nothing for the media deal. They're definitely exploring the best options to keep growing in the live sports market, but don't want to half ass it. So if they do make a deal, they want to have full control and the full inventory. They're prepared and not hurting if no deal shapes up. They won't overpay.

But I'm also a little skeptical they'll give a good deal for the post raid PAC. I'm actually not sure if they'd want to give any deal at all after it lost the teams it did. The old PAC wasn't the SEC but had enough worth building around for their venture in cfb broadcasting. A PAC/MWC/AAC, TBD if they want that.

8 minutes ago, 350_BULL said:

Wow this is deja vu (and no, not talking about our uh recruiting tool in Tampa). This is the same crap that happened if I recall correctly with PITT and maybe Syracuse before they ended up leaving for the ACC. Instead of blocking expansion I thought they voted against a big TV deal with ESPN. I could be wrong though.

Also the same movie we saw in the Big 12 with Texas/Oklahoma and then USC/UCLA in the PAC. Some of the other members try to pad up the conference in case of future defections (though they don't always say it outright). But the big dogs who are also the ones most likely to leave say nah, you deal with it later.

15 minutes ago, Outlaw said:

Does pac4 still get an autobid for ny6 bowl next year?

12 minutes ago, Bull Matrix said:

They would have to finish higher ranked than the others 

Bull Matrix is right. 2023 is the last year where the 2 NY6 bowls are playoff games and 4 are regular bowls. The P5 have a guaranteed spot for their conference champ in one of the regular bowls if they aren't in the playoffs. But 2024 and 2025 have the expanded playoff so all 6 NY6 bowls become playoff games: 4 as quarterfinals and 2 as semifinals. So no more champ tie in. They'd have to be ranked high enough to be included in either the 6 champs or 6 at large. 

33 minutes ago, puc86 said:

Automatic inclusion of the ACC network in states they have a presence, may as well lock down all of the largest states 

This is the answer. Also the reason why the Big 12 doesn't automatically have anything to gain by adding the Bay Area schools. There's no Big 12 conference network so can't cheese the system the way the B1G did with Rutgers and Maryland. Still seems like a bad idea so we'll see if SMU actually happens. 

19 minutes ago, USF_Bullsharks said:

Conference (avg) payouts in 2022 - 

B1G: $58.8MM

SEC: $49.9MM

B12: ~$43MM

ACC: $39.4MM

PAC: $37MM

The only way the B12 is poaching ACC schools is if two things happen - 1. FOX agrees to pro-rata for each of the schools. Going to 18/20 would mean an extra $85/$170MM per year in fees. And 2. The next B12 tv contract is at the very least, on par with the current deal, and probably needs to be significantly more payout per school. USCLA/OUT/OUW/FSU/CLEM aren't leaving their conferences over a $10-$20MM difference in yearly TV payouts, they are leaving for $30-40MM difference (B1G/SEC conference payouts projected at $70-80MM starting in 2024). A team moving from ACC -> B12 will be doing so for significantly less difference, increase their travel expense, and be downgrading academic relationships (even with addition of Utah/Zona/ASU/Colorado). If a team from the ACC joins the B12, it will not be until the B12 negotiates their next TV contract in 2030ish. A lot can change in the next 6-7 years. 

Great breakdown. Agreed on all points. Can't see the next Big 12 deal bring miles ahead of the ACC that it would prompt schools to jump.

I see it playing out more like the PAC 12 death. The top 4-6 ACC schools get poached by the Power 2, capping what the next ACC deal will be without them. The next middle batch, your Louisville and Pitt type schools will join the Big 12 just like the 4 corners did once it was the best option left. But otherwise their preference was to stay with their original conference.

19 minutes ago, BullyPulpit said:

I believe it is a minimum of $7 million. UCF reported receiving $8.8 million this past year. I'm not certain how the $17 million in entry fees for the incoming teams and the $54 million in exit fees for UCF/Houston/Cincy will be divided. 

By comparison, the MWC is the next closest G5 conference and their teams make at least $4 million annually. 

For the exit fees of any conference, I think usually the legacy members will keep all of it. If not all of it, a large majority of it and only a small share to the new members that are replacing the outgoing teams. 

That $8.8M is right. The AAC TV deal will average $7M over it's duration but don't think it's actually hit that amount yet. But the $8.8M payout also includes bowl, CFP, and NCAA credits money.

21 minutes ago, TallyBull said:

I don’t know. This dude seems to think it will. 

The OSU and WSU fans also believed everything was fine and that anything negative was just Big 12 propaganda until the end. 

24 minutes ago, Outlaw said:

From your experience what is more important to future recruits NIL money or an OCS ? I know the university can only provide one.

Specifically recruits, I'd lean a little more towards NIL directly. But an OCS can build the foundation for a strong fan base which in the future will be your NIL donors.

3 minutes ago, DontPushMe said:

Why are you here?

Lol you can down vote me, doesn't make my comment incorrect.