UCF_rustbucket

He's just another twitter guy who loves throwing spaghetti at the wall whenever expansion is happening. It never sticks. That being said, Oregon and Washington being better than anyone in the new Big 12 ironically may be the reason the Big 12 could be in the better position right now. Everyone wants to be in the new Big 2, but Oregon and Washington seem to have the best odds of the remaining PAC 12 and Big 12 teams. So rather than let them decide the fate of the PAC 12, the 4 corner schools can get ahead of it and just give themselves a stable home in a 16 team Big 12.

Maximizing our opportunity was a big part. Though there's always some element of luck. I do agree with @DontPushMe take on the timing. Because I can say with full confidence that if the Big 12 and PAC 12 were raided the same summer, the preferred choice absolutely would have been to associate only with existing P5 teams, so some merger of the leftovers from both. The only reason the Big 12 went for the best G5 was because both as a conference and as individual programs, none of their P5 related avenues yielded any success.

Is that necessarily true that it opens up the contract up? I feel like they'd just work with the value it has or amend something for the new teams. But even if we're to say it does open up the value and let the ACC catch up some of it's missed value, what's the end goal? The ACC as-is or plus some combination of WVU, USF, and Memphis will still be far short of the SEC and B1G. Which is a problem when you have teams in there that know they can jump to one of those leagues at some point.

I followed their media guide suggestion and usually refer to it as the American. Because so many times even Google would autocorrect to ACC lol

They could, like TCU did with the Big East once they got a Big 12 invite. But they could be salty at how the PAC 12 never gave them a look before. Or they could want to wait and see because what would suck is if they ditch the Big 12 for the PAC 12, the PAC loses 2 to 4 more teams, and now BYU is in the MWC+.

Do MK and the SB nation guys survive if this ends being a nothing burger?

I owe you an upvote, but I'm all out of reacts for the day lol. I think you're onto something. ND is the biggest piece left out there, though there still are a few other big names like Oregon, Washington, and the ACC schools. Just trying to read the tea leaves, I don't know if the ACC has enough possible moves available to try to compete with the B1G vs SEC arms race. The B1G would be absolutely besides themselves if they get ND, who seems like a weird fit for the SEC. Both are likely keeping an eye on the ACC and waiting to pounce once we get closer to the ACC grant of rights ending.

If you're trying to build up your conference as best as possible, you go for the best teams. Not the cheapest to buyout. If those 2 things overlap, then great. CUSA and Sunbelt have way cheaper buyouts than the AAC yet 6/8 teams the Big 12 actually looked at were from the AAC. The Big 12 ended up in a tough place due to bowing to Texas and Oklahoma for years. USF has immense potential. But the higher you go up in the conference food chain, the less likely you're adding based solely on potential. There's gotta be more and more of a track record the higher you go. It's why the SEC added Texas, the Big 12 added Houston, the AAC added UTSA, and CUSA added SHSU. The further you go down that chain, the more it's potential based vs track record. USF absolutely can be force in college football, but what has significantly changed from last year to this year that would catapult USF above Big 12 teams if the ACC wanted to expand? Being cheaper wouldn't be a great reason for a long term move.

For sure. But as far as I can see, the ACC would be doing so with the same criteria the Big 12 did last year. Good performance on the field, good market, strong support investment and viewership wise. The more the ACC waits, the better chance USF has to get things on track. But if they expanded this year for instance, I don't see a reason they take USF over say a combination of Cincy and WVU. And that's only if they want to expand. If even the best options don't guarantee more money, why expand? It's an extra mouth to feed. It's that same greed that kept the Big 12 from expanding in 2016. I get trying to buffer against your best teams eventually leaving, but making them feed a few extra mouths almost guarantees you'll make them leave.

Oregon and Washington are the 2 best brands left between the PAC 12 and Big 12. If the B1G doesn't want them, they definitely don't want anyone in the Big 12. I've been saying since last year that the B1G wouldn't respond to the SEC's power move of taking OU/UT by going for some limp schools like Kansas and Iowa State just because they're AAU. And sure enough they went big for the 2 LA schools, though I definitely didn't think a move would come so quickly. I'm not trying to be that guy just because I'm a UCF fan, but if the ACC really were to expand right now, I can't see them taking G5 teams unless absolutely necessary. The Big 12 only did it after being on life support and not in a position to take from other P5s. They tried keeping OU and UT, then tried talking merger with the PAC 12, and then individual teams tried to find their own lifeboats out but no one wanted them. You check all your top options first so it's more likely they go for the Big 12 teams. Same reason the PAC and Big 12 will try to take from each other first before having to go G5.

The first part I agree with. Fate was sealed when Texas shenanigans when they flirted with the PAC 12 a decade plus ago caused that first wave of 4 to leave. Damage was done after that. The second part, kind of disagree. It can definitely sink but all depends on how the PAC 12 shakes out. After a move or two more, there likely isn't necessarily anyone else attractive left in the PAC 12 or Big 12 at this time for the SEC/B1G to go for. They'll just be waiting for the ACC GOR to end. The PAC and Big 12 will either fully merge, or one will be in a better spot and raid a few of the other, or they're even enough that any expansion from either would have to be G5. No matter what, it'll be a better fate than the AAC. Even if it's essentially an AAC+. We came to the AAC with 6 other CUSA teams, but still worth it to join the Big East leftovers and ditch UTEP and others. Regrouping as the Big 12 with us still allows yall to ditch the tulsas and Tulane's and temples of the world.

Does it though? Would you have realistically put USF as one of the top 4 options for the Big 12 at the time? If the PAC 12 or someone else does raid the Big 12, there's no move the Big 12 could've made last year with additions to prevent that.

Definitely not. Those are B1G caliber schools that have probably begun making calls now that this news dropped. If I'm the B1G, I take those to form a Western pod with USC and UCLA. Stanford and Cal deserve some consideration, but it can definitely work with just the first 4.

I don't think we're talking about the same thing. I'm taking about the poached, not the poacher padding itself before they get poached. So not the SEC and B1G. I'm talking about an ACC that fears a raid on its teams is imminent, I don't see them adding G5 teams in anticipation of getting raided. They would reactively add teams only after they lose teams. Just like the Big East/AAC did and like the Big 12 did.

No power conference has ever proactively tried to buffer against future raids. Does that mean none ever will? Nah, they could. But it's just not something I'd bet on. The Big 12 could've in 2016 but didn't because it meant pissing off ESPN who'd have to pay P5 money to G5 teams. The current ACC would add G5 teams and willingly split their shares? Unlikely. Wouldn't act until their hand is forced.

If what the sports writers are saying is true, it may not even be a P5. It'll be a P2 and then 2 or 3 tweener conferences, then the G5. But either way, you'd rather be as high as you can get even if it's the middle 2 or 3 rather than being G5. The way the SEC and B1G are consolidating, both our schools may be like 50 years too late as far as FBS history goes to have a realistic chance of being included.

Basically my same sentiment, feels good on positioning based on program improvements. But no actual details because USF's opening is still a few moves away. Even in your scenario, the ACC would need to be raided first. His connections would help, but what I'm trying to say is if the ACC/Big 12 only expand after getting raided and that hasn't happened yet, then there's no way he knows of an actual invite in hand.

Unlikely he knows anything, but is probably just confident on your outlook based on the upcoming facilities. I don't think he knows anything because the likeliest opportunity for USF would be the Big 12. But in order to get there more domino's have to fall first. Are USC and UCLA going alone or taking 2 more with them? The makeup of the PAC 12 after the raid will determine whether they can raid the Big 12 or end up getting raided. Because the Big 12 would take existing P5 teams first. Only if it loses teams will it need to expand with teams currently outside the P5.

They brought Bevo with them a few years ago when they played Georgia in the Sugar Bowl and he chased off the bulldog mascot lol https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.kvue.com/amp/article/news/local/i-got-hooked-sugar-bowl-photographer-shows-scratch-after-bevo-attacks-georgia-bulldog/269-625841401

I know the focus was probably on football focused players and coaches but I really am surprised it took y'all until page 4 (at least as far as I could tell) to mention LRS. Easily should be the first person honored, at least from this outsider's perspective.

I agree. But it goes hand in hand to me, winning and facilities that is. Investing in the right facilities early on and hitting more often than missing on coaching hires both would be signs of an engaged administration. Though it's definitely possible to end up with just half. Right now that's AAC newcomer UNT. They've put some good money into facilities, are ina great market/recruiting area, but need to make a coaching change and be back in the win column. If UCF hadn't made the right hires and won the way we have, we'd basically be the Florida version of UNT.

It's helpful to try to salvage what you can brand wise and have the new members coexist with the 2 bluebloods even for a season or 2. The Big 12 also has the GOR, which gives them leverage against OU/UT that Aresco didn't have against the departing teams. In order to leave, OU/UT at a minimum must forfeit 2 years of conference payout. That's just the regular exit fee. Then they also still would contractually owe the Big 12 their TV earnings through the 2024-25 athletic season. So if they did try to move for the 23-24 season, they'd have to pay the Big 12 all of their Big 12 money from 21-22 and 22-23, and on top of that the Big 12 would still hold their tv rights so those first 2 years of playing in the SEC would go right back to the Big 12 bank.

I think the Alliance has shown itself already to not be much but a voting block to shoot down the proposed CFP just because they felt bamboozled by the SEC simultaneously having a hand in designing it while secretly pillaging the Big 12. There's been little to no effort in actual scheduling agreements among those conferences. An opening could happen for you guys in the 16 team B1G option due to trickle down. Either the ACC takes you or the ACC takes Cincy, which leaves the Big 12 down 2 teams after also losing WVU to the B1G (which idk if they'd be thaaaat lenient on academics to let WVU in). My picks would easily be Memphis and USF to get back to 12. Or go with strength in numbers at that point and also add Boise and SDSU to get to 14.

Puc lol but that's about it. I think just about everyone else on here realizes that while it sucks to see us up while y'all are down, us being up isn't what caused you to be down. If either of our schools had done things differently we could've both been in the Big 12 expansion. Or both left out.

The Alabama's can't just stockpile their bench, but the counter to that is that they can still poach established players from lower level schools. 3 year All American starter at a G5 school with aspirations for a bigger stage (and NIL cash) gets the call from the Bama tier of schools and jumps in