BrassBulls12

6 minutes ago, chapelbull said:

Not sure what this has to do with anything.  Are you trying to argue that SM isn't as good as people "thought"?

its to show you should probably evaluate yourself based on your performance against peers (conference members), not those from lower competition. 

11 minutes ago, chapelbull said:

  It's relevant, SM has simply pitched much better than you proclaim

How? What are the numbers that prove me wrong, I keep hearing how the I twist the numbers well someone twist them the other way.  I only ask that you look at conference play and not the lesser talent that we play, beating those teams doesn't help us. 

Houston only drawing just over 1100 to their game is kinda shocking. Anyone know if they had weather issues? 

Turns out, USF's spring game may have answered the Bulls' most pressing question after all. One might even suggest Saturday's proceedings left no room for doubt.

An on-campus stadium probably wouldn't nudge the needle in terms of attendance.

And you thought we were talking about the quarterbacks. Nope, just the ones who choose — or don't choose — to come watch them.

full article

Does the lack of spring game attendance mean that an OCS would not help attendance? 

Ill just yield  and be the minority on this one. Sm does have the higher ceiling moving forward (past this season) but I think we are gonna look back say the PS was the better Bull. 

4 minutes ago, chapelbull said:

You are picking and choosing ...... 

So if our football team scores 50 on San Jose State, and then 14 against say... Temple. Would be more accurate to say our offense had a bad day or that maybe we weren't as good as thought we were and that maybe the San Jose State game didn't show as much as we previously thought? 

1 minute ago, Bourbon Bull said:

This is just more proof that you can make numbers work any way you want.  

I have yet to see the numbers disprove my point, that PS has been better in conference games. 

1 minute ago, chapelbull said:

It is when you pick and choose what to subtract and what not to subtract.  It's ok, I'm sure the PS fan club meetings are great especially this week.  Cheers!

i'm not picking and choosing, its just Conference vs non conference. Games that matter vs games that don't. 

2 minutes ago, Bourbon Bull said:

These past few pages.....  and "Popcorn emoji"  (what happened to that?) and 

Thanks.

lol, glad to entertain. It has been a fun discussion. 

15 minutes ago, chapelbull said:

This isn't the first team whose #2 had better "stats" than the #1 (and that is only selectively true).  Doesn't mean you go off and change the rotation midseason especially when the team's results are there.

Sorry, but subtracting lesser teams from his numbers isn't selective. Its just pointing out that when the competition is  on par with our program, he hasn't been very good at keeping runs off the board. Rotations aren't set in stone, they get flipped based on performance all the time. If he cant mentally handle being flipped from Friday to Saturday, then i'm not sure I would trust him pitching in a regional final. 

Who has been collectively better against UNC, Tulane, Houston, ECU, and UConn? That's what my whole argument stems on. What have they done against teams that we should be compared to? not the lesser teams that we fill our schedule with. 

4 minutes ago, chapelbull said:

Didn't PS face those same opponents?  You don't think other conferences face similar cupcakes preconference? 

Yes, but I subtract those games from PS numbers too. The bottom line PS has been better against P5 opponents not names army.  

1 minute ago, chapelbull said:

lol, are you related to PS?  The bias is thick

no, no bias in numbers and data

7 minutes ago, chapelbull said:

SM leads the conference in opponents BA as well.

Does that included CMU, Colombia, Army, and Fordham? if so, those number skewed and out of context. Thats not the level of competition we should comparing ourselves too. None of those teams will make a regional barring a tournament miracle. 

9 minutes ago, chapelbull said:

He's the better pitcher, he's just erratic which isn't uncommon for hard throwing lefties.  He seems to get a little frustrated and loses it mentally at times.

He's not the better pitcher because of the weaknesses that you highlighted 

15 minutes ago, chapelbull said:

A loss is a loss.  You can't have it both ways.

 

This is true,  but I would rather walk away knowing we had a chance to win it instead of wondering why we showed up. 

13 minutes ago, chapelbull said:

The difference is in evaluating his overall performance.

please lets look at full body of work ,PS has a better ERA, WHIP, more innings pitched,  less walks, and more wins over the full course of the season. Again all SM has over PS is Strikeouts. And if you wanna talk about what one inning will do. look at PS numbers if you take the his first inning against UNC? If you do that, PS hasn't given up more than three earned runs in a game this season and that's just subtracting his first inning of the season which could be nerves, not a random inning that you give up after cruising through lesser teams.  

2 hours ago, chapelbull said:

Agreed, PS gets beat on Fri by the opposing team's #1

Sorry not selective, this statement seemed pretty cut and dry. 

9 minutes ago, chapelbull said:

god awful SM 

I never said that. i am simply implying  that he is the second best pitcher on this roster. 

6 minutes ago, chapelbull said:

He could lose 1-0 like the UH game.

in this situation, you are in the game till the end. i'll take that over being out of the game by the third all day. 

2 hours ago, chapelbull said:

Agreed, PS gets beat on Fri by the opposing team's #1

How is this a foregone conclusion? what if he doesn't give up six runs in the first three innings, you think maybe that game plays out differently?

5 minutes ago, chapelbull said:

It is in a vacuum when you ignore the fact that 10 of those "earned runs" were statistically in 1 inning.

Please tell me the difference in the score if a guy gives up six runs in one inning or six runs in six? You can't just say hes a great pitcher except for that one inning. 

Also, he gave up

6 in the second inning against Uconn

Against Houston he gave up 4 in the seventh

against ECU he gave up 4 in the second and 2 in the third. 

So which single inning account for ten of his ER'? To me they look pretty spread out 

11 minutes ago, chapelbull said:

you're ignoring every positive the guy has.

like what? the strike out numbers? He has only eclipsed the 10 k mark once in conference play. He only has 11 strikeouts to 10 walks in his last two games. He is just trending down at the moment. 

47 minutes ago, chapelbull said:

Of course you don't care, it does fit your objective like just looking at the ER line in a vacuum does.  And you are ignoring it, you started your post with "I don't care ...." 

You are mixing up my arguments. What  I don't care about is that all of his ER came in one or two bad innings. The real issue is that 17 of them  have been spread out over three of his four conference starts. They all count the same whether they all came in a bad inning or not.

What you claim I am ignoring is the gaudy numbers he put up against lesser talent. You are only looking at his Strikeout numbers in a vacuum. Breaking down his strikeout numbers would show that he has only has 28 K's in conference compared to PS 24. So our big time strikeout guy that can only go 6 because of his strikeout ability only has one more strikeout out per game in conference than our supposed #2. I am looking at what has happened against the better teams and whether or not the model of winning we have been using is sustainable.

 In conference play we have two starters

Starter A. has 29.1 Innings pitched,a 1.54 ERA, and 1.03 WHIP

Starter B. has 19.2 Innings pitched, a 8.43 ERA, and 1.77 WHIP, 

that's not a vacuum, that's four games worth of data that shows pitcher A is better at keeping batters off base, and more importantly, the ones that get on are more likely to stay there. 

8 minutes ago, NewEnglandBull said:

"we run the ball too much" vs. "we are winning games."

kinda except that there is a sustainable model of winning to running the ball. I have never seen a successful baseball team who's ace is limited to less than 7 innings. But the beauty of this sport is that both ways have just as much chance of failing as the other depending on how all nine guys play on that given night. I would just want to put my best pitcher out there for game one and I wont buy into SM being the best pitcher for us so far just because of his strikeout ability, there's just so much more to being a pitcher. 

If they are both lights out then it doesn't matter. I just think at some point we are going to get bitten by not be able to win game 1 and maybe a shake up on the bump would do the trick. It might not work, but you can't be scared to make adjustments in this sport. 

44 minutes ago, chapelbull said:

Yes you kind of do.   10 of those ERs were in 1+ of an inning

I don't care if its one inning or six right now in conference play, hes allowing 4.5 runs per game. He gave up 6 in two of the games and 5 in the other, and I just looking at ER, not Runs in total, some experts would say that pitchers need to feel responsible for all runs because its their job to get out of the inning. But in any case he has had at least one bad inning in each of those games. and that's 3 of the last four. 

38 minutes ago, Bourbon Bull said:

If you move PS to Friday night and he pitches well, you may still lose that game because we aren't hitting opposing Friday night pitchers very well. 

We may lose every game that our team isn't hitting well, i would rather have the pitcher on the mound that is better at keeping runs off the board in those games. 

1 hour ago, chapelbull said:

You keep ignoring that. 

Not ignoring it, just pointing out that the last four weeks have been against better teams the then previous four. i'm glad he did great against Columbia, Central Michigan, and Fordham but that doesn't do much for us. Even UNC came in the first game so you could make the argument that they were still knocking rust off  and that's his lone Quality start against a quality opponent. it's not ok that he pitched well except for one inning, that inning still counts, those runs dont count any less because it was his one bad inning for the game. 

We will need them both to be good, i'm just tired of needing to win every Saturday. Losing on Friday and taxing our pen to nine plus outs just gets old and isn't sustainable. 

2 minutes ago, chapelbull said:

We gave up 4 runs in the 7th with a big lead

He let them back in the game, right. Hows that going to work in the post season?

4 minutes ago, chapelbull said:

  In fact, SM was lights out for 6.2 and lost it with 2 outs in the 7th.  Cruz was awful in relief.

Right, so find a way to go deeper into games so the pen doesn't lose it for you. That's what aces do anyway. 

6 minutes ago, chapelbull said:

Like I said, besides this past weekend (and 1 inning vs. UConn), he hasn't thrown nearly as bad as you want to make it sound.  

2 minutes ago, chapelbull said:

he hasn't thrown nearly as bad as you want to make it sound.  

That accounts for 50% of our conference series and I don't make it sound that way, the amount of ERs do. 

Obviously we aren't going to see eye to eye on this. In the end its Mohl decision and he is going to make it based on the information he has, which is a lot more than what we have. I would just like to see PS in the Friday night spot to see what can happen.  At some point, if Shane is the ace, he has to find a way to go deep in to games or we wont make much of post season run. 

9 minutes ago, chapelbull said:

Not sure why PS starting on Friday gives us more of a chance at sweeping a series. 

Because we are winning on Saturday and not Friday.  We are 1-3 in conference on Friday and had to over come 6 runs to get it. We are 3-1 on Saturday and lost 0-1 in the one loss. You cant sweep a series if you don't win on Friday, I would just like a chance. 

21 minutes ago, chapelbull said:

You left off his dozen K's against North Carolina and the fact is he threw well enough to beat Tulane. 

I didn't leave them out. I was making a point that most of his success has come against lesser talent and that he has struggled against good opponents (with the exception of UNC), which is still true. Also, he threw well enough to beat Tulane for 6 innings, look at what Pete against Houston when the offense failed. He battled right to the very end. 

11 minutes ago, chapelbull said:

SM hasn't thrown nearly as bad as you make it seem

What't good about 6 ER per game in conference play? Is our offense just supposed to over come that every Friday night? 

SM does have better stuff, but Pete is the better pitcher. The strikeout leader doesn't win the Cy Young every year. 

1 minute ago, chapelbull said:

All I know is we have won 3 out of 4 series,

Thats very true. But we haven't won on Friday night in any of those series wins. Im not anti- SM, i'm really not. He has great stuff but his shortcomings have put us behind in series. Saturday might offer some protection that Friday does not. 

4 minutes ago, chapelbull said:

He's 2nd in the country in K's and 1st in K's/9 innings.  As I stated in another thread that's as much a factor in the length of his outings as his control.   And he's not 21 quite yet.

Ok, But in conference play he is only averaging seven strikeouts pregame, So his primary strength has been kinda pedestrian in games that matter.  Also, 45 of his strikeouts have come against Fordham, Central Michigan, Army, and Columbia, thats compared to the 28 against Uconn, Houston, ECU, and Tulane. 

This sport is driven by 21 year olds, he gets a pass if he's 18 but 21 is pretty mature in college sports. 

In the end it is Molh decision. I just think PS would give us a better chance at sweeping series and that he has really just flat out earned it. But, if it would upset the dynamic then it shouldn't be done. But that can be said for just about every debate that happens on this board. Coaches will always have more info than us.

Thanks for the discussion.