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Women's Tourney - Seed Prediction


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The computers like us, the voters like us, but how will the committee feel about us? We gave UCONN two of their toughest games of the season, but we have 0 top 25 wins (shocking) and we are only 3-8 against Sagarin's Top 50 (3-5 against everyone not named UCONN). Based upon the human polls and computer data we should be a 5 or 6 seed. Based upon quality wins, we are probably a 7 seed. 

I don't think there is any conceivable scenario in which we are better than a 5 or worse than a 7, but it will be interesting to see. I'm going to hedge and go with a #6 seed. Strategically, I would rather be a #6 or #7 seed in the Women's tournament, as it assures that you won't have to play one of the top 4 seeds until the Elite Eight, and the difference between the top 5 (UCONN, ND, USC, Maryland, and Baylor) in the women's game and teams 6 through 12 is dramatic! 

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I currently have them as the top 6 seed playing Arkansas St. in Rd 1.

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In the South bracket BTW, with South Carolina as the 1 seed

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I think, ideally, we end up as a #6 seed. If Baylor ends up as the #2 or #3 overall seed, I would love to be in their part of the bracket. Baylor is likely the weakest of the likely #1 seeds (we only lost by 3 to them on the road) and, if we can avoid Maryland as a #2, the rest of the #2 seeds are definitely a step below. I would love to draw Ohio State. They have been exposed and are by far and away the worst defensive team in the top 50 (albeit the #1 offense, but UCONN is #2 and we held them below their average in every game we played against them). 

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14 minutes ago, cophbulls said:

I currently have them as the top 6 seed playing Arkansas St. in Rd 1.

Arky State lost the championship game to Troy.  ESPN doesnt even show them making the field.

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Arkansas St is one of my last 4 in. 26 wins with a 43rd ranked RPI.

ESPN plays the P5 bias game, I don't.

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2 minutes ago, cophbulls said:

Arkansas St is one of my last 4 in. 26 wins with a 43rd ranked RPI.

ESPN plays the P5 bias game, I don't.

Gotcha.  Agree they look good on paper. 

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But after St Bonaventure (30th RPI and 22 wins) got snubbed for Syracuse (72nd RPI and 19 wins) its obvious that the p5 bias exists in at least the mens committee so it wouldn't suprise me if arkanssas st got left out as well

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No# 4 seed.  Book it!

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Guest PCBull14
14 minutes ago, BullyPulpit said:

I think, ideally, we end up as a #6 seed. If Baylor ends up as the #2 or #3 overall seed, I would love to be in their part of the bracket. Baylor is likely the weakest of the likely #1 seeds (we only lost by 3 to them on the road) and, if we can avoid Maryland as a #2, the rest of the #2 seeds are definitely a step below. I would love to draw Ohio State. They have been exposed and are by far and away the worst defensive team in the top 50 (albeit the #1 offense, but UCONN is #2 and we held them below their average in every game we played against them). 

You seen Baylor play lately?

I'll take a game with South Carolina at this point.  You face Baylor and you're probably facing next season's National Champion . They can shoot like Uconn and our defense has been suspect against Huskies considering how many times we've seen them. Kick out game kills everytime!

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