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11 hours ago, NewEnglandBull said:

We are projected at 4.2-7.9 wins. Interesting that this prediction has 4 wins in the bag.

2021 American Conference Football Power Index | ESPN

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Visit ESPN to view American Conference FPI for the current and previous seasons

 

I think we are looking at 4-8. We have a tough non-conference schedule and think we will go 1-3 there, then 3-5 in conference - most of our conference opponents are returning very capable quarterbacks. Any upside beyond 4 wins really boils down to how much better our QB play is this year.

Nice addition to the schedule for Kelly especially so early into the off-season. I am curious who else he can get in the non-conference because alot of holiday tournaments have already announced their full fields:

• Charleston Classic (11/18 - 11/21) - already has full field, including Temple
• Empire Classic (11/18 - 11/19) - full field
• USVI Paradise Jam (11/19 - 11/22) - full field
• Roman Main Event (11/19 - 11/21) - full field, including Wichita State
• Hall of Fam Tip Off (11/20 - 11/21) - full field
• Maui Invitational (11/22 - 11/24) - full field, including Houston
• Fort Myers Tip Off (11/22 - 11/24) - full field
• Roman Legends (11/22 - 11/23) - full field
• Hall of Fame Classic (11/22 - 11/23) - full field, including Cincinnati
• Battle 4 Atlantis (11/24 - 11/26) - full field
• NIT Season Tip Off (11/24 - 11/26) - full field, including Memphis
• Orlando Invitational (11/25 - 11/28) - only 3 of 8 teams announced, none from the AAC (UCF last appeared there in 2017 and previously in 2007; USF has never participated)
• Emerald Coast Classic (11/26 - 11/27) - full field
• Diamond Head Classic (12/22 - 12/25) - only 1 of 8 teams announced, none from the AAC 
• Gotham Classic (TBD) - only 2 of 7 teams announced, none from the AAC

There are a few additional tournaments that have not announced anything (e.g. Wooden Legacy) so there may be some additional options for landing spots this year. But as of now only 5 AAC teams are locked into a holiday tournament.

5 hours ago, smazza said:

you cant defend size

you need bigs

We have Tchewa and will need a serviceable back up for him when he gets into foul trouble or labors. Oduro should expect a sizeable increase in playing time at the 4 with his size (averaged less than 10 minutes per game last season), so finding someone (or two) off the bench who can play the 4/5 will be key.

I think the starting 5 I'd like to see won't be undersized at all:

• G - Murphy (6'4", 185 lbs)
• G - Chaplin (6'5", 196 lbs) - likely get first look with starters but could be easily replaced by Greene if he struggles
• F - Boggs (6'7", 190 lbs) - junior who shoots 47%/44%/76%, looks athletic enough but CAA to AAC is a jump in physicality and speed
• F - Oduro (6'8, 255 lbs)
• C- Tchewa (7'0", 260 lbs)

That starting 5 is big enough, but its the bench that lacks the 4/5 that can move people and spell Tchewa and Oduro.

• G - Moss (6'3", 175 lbs) - incoming freshman will likely back up Murphy to start
• G - Greene (6'4", 190 lbs) - shoots 43%/37%/78%; have seen him listed as a small as 6'2"; 5th year senior could easily replace Chapin if he struggles
• F - Hines, Jr. (6'6", 210 lbs) - shoots 47%/16%/55%; strong on the glass for his size; sophomore has the body to step in for Boggs if overmatched; right now would likely to come in when Tchewa or Oduro are out
• F - Patrick (6'7", 190 lbs) - shot 47%/44%/80% in junior college but underwhelming on the boards

With only 3 players on the roster weighing 200 lbs or more, it will be interesting to see:

• Who else Gregory can land to spell Tchewa and Oduro?
• What kind of identity the group takes on for such an athletic and thin group?
• How much this group gets pushed around? 8 of the 9 players that transferred out weighed 200 lbs+ each

Also, all 4 transfers averaged 25 minutes per game last season, so will be interesting to see how Gregory mixes them in. This is something the team really struggled with in the non-conference last year as he integrated Murphy, Tchewa and Yetna back in with those that were returning. They never seemed to find an identity or the right chemistry.

Congrats! Heath becomes only the 3rd USF coach to move on and be a head coach of another D1 program after their time here (Greenburg at Virginia Tech and McCullum with FAMU).

Without a doubt, Heath gave us the most exciting and fun season of USF MBB ever.

10 minutes ago, Triple B said:

It's repetitive, whether I agree with it or not, that's designed to continually get under people's skin. Are you that oblivious that you couldn't pick up on what he was referring to when he posted that?

Its not designed to get under anyone's skin. If people are bothered by the assessment that I, and many others share, then I will dial back any Gregory assessments that some may find triggering.

Its on topic, but its just an opinion you don't agree with. When someone says "The group we had did not play well together for the most part last year", and my response is because the coach doesn't put pieces together well (see his failure to mesh newcomers and Yetna with the returning players) is absolutely on topic. As far as starting a spat with a rival - I have no rivals, just individuals who are slow to see the truth.

The upcoming basketball season will be an interesting one to witness. Gregory will have to evolve as a coach if he is going to be able to extend is his career, not just at USF but as a head coach in D1.  Its an interesting group of incoming players, but right now they are just a collection of average low-D1 players.

Hoping 2021-22 will be a magical season.

2 hours ago, jg233 said:

We basically get to start over with guys that have been productive players elsewhere.  The group we had did not play well together for the most part last year.  This at least makes things more interesting going into next season.

Agreed, but not sure I have much confidence in Gregory to put the pieces together or run a competent half court offense, in what is likely a make-or-break season for him.

Hoping this collection of players can overcome their coach and win in spite of him.

1 minute ago, chapelbull said:

No you didn't but thats ok

Turn the page.

Turn the page.

34 minutes ago, chapelbull said:

First of all jack@#&

I stopped reading after this...lol

1 hour ago, chapelbull said:

There's 4 facts there.  A couple are free and loose, but you can have them. You ignore tons though because they don't fit your narrative.

This has nothing to do with "defending" CBG.  It's more about horrible posts and misleading information in them, but you know that and can't really defend it so that is why you keep going back to "defending Gregory".   Because at the end of the day you couldn't care less about the "racial bias" claims.   This is about firing  Coach __________ (enter the name of Coach DuJour) every other year until we magically find one that can turn us into a powerhouse.

To think that 8 players transferring out in 30 days amounts to "nothing to see here" and the players are likely the ones that did this to themselves is ignorant. You probably think it was the player's fault for not giving 100% effort and that Herrion was justified in telling him (allegedly) to "run like you were running from the cops".

Thanks for exposing what side of the fence you sit on with this issue. No need to go back and forth on this one any further. 

1 hour ago, Triple B said:

Yeah .... I do anyway. Some of those may have been a mutual decision. Some may be they just don't like USF as a school and with the rule this year, they took advantage. Obviously there is something going on with the investigation but that still doesn't mean that players wouldn't have left regardless ....

Well I hope you get it then. Just afraid that those who want that information only want to rationalize each individual departure in their head so they don't have to admit that there is a bigger issue and a common denominator, which as of now is they don't want to be in this program playing for this coach.

2 hours ago, chapelbull said:

My lord.  Are you always such a drama queen or only when you are manipulating (making up)  information to suit your agenda?

8 people leaving the program in the last 30 days is fact. The current D1 average of 3.4 players in the portal is fact. There is an ongoing investigation into allegations of racial bias in the program, confirmed in the USF press release - that is also fact. And we have a player in the portal who has stated they are leaving due to "racial incidents" - that is fact. There is no need to dramatize this - our program is doing a good enough of a job of creating the drama themselves.

I am not sure what you need to see in order to offer any criticism of our program - do you need 10 players to enter the portal? All 13 players? Do you need to know the exact reason all 8 want nothing to do with the program and do not want to play for Gregory anymore?

I commend your defense of Gregory and the program, but your lack of concern towards the student athletes is disturbing. It makes me wonder if you view them as objects or a commodity and not people.

11 minutes ago, chapelbull said:

Which is it some or most?   And if you don't have a link then stop saying either because so far we have what? 1 player who also almost never played/contributed say anything about "race" while we have an African America assistant coach that appears to be in full support of CBG and multiple players transferring in as well.

It's obvious that the current NCAA rule exceptions have a major influence on the number of transfers throughout college basketball.   

The investigation might give us some insight into that, otherwise we'll have to base it on what players have publicly said and what has been reported. But again, regardless of the reason when 9 guys transfer out they aren't leaving because they love it here.

The NCAA exception has taken the overall numbers up, but unless you think that 3.5=8 there is a serious problem within the MBB program. Its a contributing factor, but its not the primary reason these kids are bolting. The NCAA has provided them an off ramp to escape the toxic environment and they are taking it.

9 hours ago, chapelbull said:

Why not ask the dozens of other teams dealing with the same issue?

I'm not aware of any schools with 8 players entering the transfer portal since the end of the season, with some/most of those being due to alleged racist comments made and enabled by the coaching staff. That number is more than double the current DI average.

But to your point, with many programs seeing an uptick in players entering the portal, although nowhere near what USF is experiencing, I wonder if people will just chalk up our transfers to the current environment that the NCAA has created.

Regardless of the reasons, when you have 9 players you recruited (including Anderson) all transfer out within a short timeframe something probably stinks within the program. When I see someone who is terrible at the tactical aspects of their job, I am never surprised to hear when they are also terrible at the leadership part of their job.

Are you a good recruiter if you get talent to come to your program but after a few years in it, they all want to transfer out (whatever the reason)?

On 4/7/2021 at 4:39 PM, Gatorbull325 said:

It doesnt seem like they have any room on their schedule until 2028 either. I think the Big 12 only does 3 OOC games. 

It doesnt seem like they have any room on their schedule until 2028 either. 

The question is what conference will Texas and USF be in, in 2028.

Well its more revealing than a tweet with just an ice cream cone.

Scott's not worried - he isn't planning on having to punt this season!

2 hours ago, chapelbull said:

That sense of pride and that rabid fandom is built on decades of athletic success.   Most people are not rabid fans based on their diploma (unless they graduated from Ivy League school or maybe a handful or so other institutions).  We were on our way possibly with CJL and the admin ran him out of town 

Completely agree.

44 minutes ago, Triple B said:

He found enough the first time to make an over 200 RPI point jump in his second year ..... and then things fell apart ..... but it will be tougher to do that this time. we're going to be an even more unattractive landing spot than we were back then.

I am hoping he can find the right group of guys and then just catch other teams napping. Chemistry is very underrated in basketball and hoping he can land a few guys that everyone else can rally around. Weirder things have happened before - Oregon State almost made the Final Four and they were predicted to finish last in the PAC-12 this year.

41 minutes ago, Brad said:

Define please.

Strong defenders who are comfortable standing around on offense and watching someone dribble the shot clock down.

3 hours ago, CousinRicky said:

Believe I just saw in the USF magazine that came the other day, possibly somewhere else, that the Alumni have about 42k members including Lifetime members (of which we are a part but didn't attend).  Believe the total graduates has to be in the low to mid 6 figures?  No connection felt with the school for most grads - sports or otherwise.

I think for most grads, not all, they view their time as students here as a transactional relationship that is over when they leave.

8 minutes ago, BullyPulpit said:

At this stage, unless the investigation reveals something truly egregious, I think you are stuck with him. There isn't enough time to make a good hire and bring in quality players to fill the roster spots that have been abdicated. He had better find guys that work in his system in the portal. 

Agreed. CBG is actively recruiting and the rebuild he is doing now will likely have to be paved over with the REAL rebuild a year from now when he is ultimately fired for performance.

24 minutes ago, chapelbull said:

Yeah, we were about 5500 less on average in the crap aac.   The people still showed up contrary to what you said

Not at the same levels. Those attendance numbers were pretty underwhelming for an exciting Top 25 team. The conference we play in was the primary driver behind the variance. 

Thanks for digging up the numbers.