Bull94
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Posts posted by Bull94
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16 hours ago, TallyBull said:
It apparently took Fritz six years to have that magical run with Tulane in 2022. But he was still 41-45 overall, even at that point. And it's not totally clear that he was actually offered the Georgia Tech job, although media reports strongly suggest he was (GT went with an interim coach, Brent Key, instead).
I think the concerns about Golesh leaving sooner rather than later are valid. Yes, he's only 3-2 at this point, but what he's been able to do in literally one season is pretty impressive. That fact, plus his amazing turnaround jobs at prior stops like Tennessee, will make him a hot commodity. Clearly the man knows what he's doing, which is more than what we can say for most new head football coaches.
All that said, I'm optimistic we can hold on to him for a while - at least long enough to build a true culture of success at USF, something similar to what Boise has. And who knows? Maybe he'll love it here (it is Florida after all) and settle in, especially if USF somehow gets into an auto-bid conference in the meantime.
I know everybody hates the times but this was an interesting read.
USF football’s hurry-up rebuild vs. the Florida Gators’ deliberate plan
WWW.TAMPABAY.COM
Billy Napier is “very patient and calculated,” while Alex Golesh wants to be as good as possible as fast as he can.-
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14 hours ago, mjadams said:
Didn't I see where the majority of the starters are leftovers from last regime?
shouldn't they be. could you imagine if he had to bring in 22 new starters.
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7 minutes ago, 00Bull said:
When 1/3 or more your roster leaves, I have no doubt portal transfers will be contributors in the rebuild. It’s who you are giving up and who you are getting back.
The article I posted above did the analysis: 60 All Conference players from the G5 left for the P5. How many All Conference P5s joined G5s?
Perhaps the best case to be made is that USF becomes a top G5 team, so although we lose our talent (which gets more exposure because we are a top team - double edged sword), we get the pick of the P4 castoffs and can poach weaker G5 teams players. Can’t imagine it’s going to be fun coaching first year players perpetually but it is what it is.
Transfers have always been a big part of our limited success.
we went 1-11 with the guys that left. we are 3-2 with the those that transferred in.
Saying that 60 all conference guys left is misleading. Would they have been all conference at the P5 level?
many of them will likely sit on the bench behind better players at their position. similar to battie. it's why it's very rare for players to transfer up a level.
it can happen though but they are exceptions.
maybe the guys we get off P5 benches in return are actually better? Considering they were signed by P5 in the first place it may well be the case.
Transfer portal and the fact they don't sit a year will benefit us far more than hurt us. Transfers have always benefited us more.
it unlocks all that talent that sits on P5 benches.
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36 minutes ago, 00Bull said:
Exceptions to the rule. For everyone 1 of him, there are 100 Blake Barnetts and Matthew Hills. This is a predominantly one way street.
we have brought in plenty of transfers from P5 that have gone on to NFL careers. what's funny is that some of the ones that come back will have gotten paid to sign with a P5 only to transfer back
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33 minutes ago, 00Bull said:
Exceptions to the rule. For everyone 1 of him, there are 100 Blake Barnetts and Matthew Hills. This is a predominantly one way street.
USF Football's Late Transfer Additions Shining As Bulls Head To UAB - USF Athletics
GOUSFBULLS.COM
South Florida at UAB • Saturday • 4:00 PM • ESPN2 • 102.5 FM/Bulls Unlimited-
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19 minutes ago, 00Bull said:
Yes, that reason is more money and better exposure. Nearly all of the examples you are giving are players transferring amongst power schools. Do that same exercise for great players who transferred from a P4/5 to a G5.
This system is an upside down funnel, the lower you are in conference/money/brand/whatever, the more opportunities above you players will have as better options. If you are a top 20 school, why bother even trying to recruit anyone other than the best of best high schoolers when you simply can acquire already developed/proven talent by offering…wait for it…more money and more exposure.
sorry but a QB transferring from notre dame to alabama isn't leaving for more money and more exposure.
Here is a QB that transferred from LSU to Auburn to Texas State. They beat Baylor this year.
He is listed as a top transfer last year in the SI article at the bottom.
TJ Finley - Texas State Bobcats Quarterback - ESPN
WWW.ESPN.COM
View the profile of Texas State Bobcats Quarterback TJ Finley on ESPN. Get the latest news, live stats and game highlights. si.com
WWW.SI.COM -
22 minutes ago, 00Bull said:
I’m responding to the folks who think last years transfer loses were an anomaly because of CJS. You seem to be making my argument, good players will leave for better opportunities.
I think people realize players leave for all sorts of reasons.
for some reason you think we will just be picked clean every year.
we will absolutely lose players(just as every program in the country does) but the transfer portal will benefit programs like ours far more than it will hurt us.
Programs will be far more competitively balanced. We will have more depth and the bottom of our roster will be improved.
OU didn't shut down their program when they lost Caleb Williams.
ucf lost their qb to Oklahoma. They replaced him with a transfer from ole miss. their scoring average went up by a point per game.
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15 minutes ago, 00Bull said:
And since those were definitely the top 2 reasons (record and coach turnover) everyone left, not NIL money and/or better NFL exposure, then the problem is solved.
you really need to get over the whole transfer player thing. It happens to all programs. Big and small.
Jalen Hurts played for alabama and Oklahoma. Joe Burrow played for LSU and Ohio State. Russel Wilson played for NC State and Wisconsin. Michael Penix played at Indiana and washington. Bo Nix played at auburn and oregon. Jordan travis played at louisville and FSU. Hendon hooker played at Va Tech and tennessee.
You could go on and on. Good players leave good programs too.
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5 minutes ago, belgianbull said:
You may be right, but I think it will depend on how many teams the ACC loses. If its just FSU, Clemson, and North Carolina the ACC will be ok. However, if its more then just those three and they lose Georgia Tech, North Carolina State, and Miami as well the ACC will be in loads of trouble. It will also depend on whether the Big 12 can hold on to Kansas and Oklahoma State.
Either way we will see a a chess match between the ACC and Big 12, and whichever conference loses out is the conference we are likely to land in. A strong ACC would be my preference since it makes more sense geographically, but i am fine with the Big 12 as well.
I honestly don't think the sec or big 18 have any interest in most of those teams you listed.
heck I'm not sure they want fsu and clemson.
fsu was publicly begging for an invite,even said they were willing to pay the $300m buyout(or whatever it is), and all we heard were crickets from those conferences.
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20 minutes ago, belgianbull said:
I don't think they over expanded. They acted while the ACC and PAC sat back. Between the Big 12, ACC, and the Pac, the Big 12 was able to strike first by adding BYU, Cincy, and all the Pac teams. The ACC responded by adding teams like SMU and Cal, two teams the Big 12 didn't want. Stanford though was a great add. The Pac is now dead, and during the next expansion period I believe the Big 12 will have a leg up on the ACC; which works out for us since the ACC will have to backfill programs they lose.
acc is well ahead of big 16 even if they lose clemson and fsu. far superior academically and athletically. money is basically the same.
just because you collect a bunch of leftovers doesn't mean you're in a better position.
the big 12 after losing the top half of their conference added the bottom of the pac 12 and top 3 in aac.
that doesn't move them ahead of acc who hasn't lost a member since south carolina in the 70's.
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10 minutes ago, 00Bull said:
Not sure it’s all that ridiculous when my outcome is based on the recent actual history of USF (and numerous colleges around the country, many/most of which didn’t have coaching changes) while your outcome is based on “hopefully”.
the portal is better for schools like us. it will make college football rosters more competitively balanced.
sure we will lose some better players(I bet you see the top schools lose far more talent than we do) but we can replace our lower end players with much better transfers.
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6 minutes ago, Cat941 said:
The schools going to the BIG are going to make so much more. And even those in the B12 will be making higher amounts. Money, it's a gas!
pac 12 was offered $30m per school after usc and ucla were gone. the others going are getting partial shares. big 16 deal is comparable at $31.6.
my point was that the tv networks didn't break up pac 12. they did it to themselves by asking for $50m per school.
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9 minutes ago, Cat941 said:
After witnessing the surgical destruction of the PAC, I'm thinking that if the networks or other forces with power want to do the same to the ACC, it will happen. Of course the situation is vastly different but it seems that there has been an agreed upon agenda by those in powers and it will conclude with superconferences. FSU will be included.
OTOH, USF has options and needs to seize the day. We have seen the light. Win, build and be ready to claim our spot at the next level.
Pac 12 destroyed themselves. They turned down a $30m per school deal.
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18 minutes ago, GoBulls84 said:
He could absolutely play at the NFL level, but he's getting far less exposure buried on the depth chart than he would here being the leader of the backfield.
Not sure that's the case.
He was the leading rusher and leading receiver in their game against Texas A&M
He was their #2 RB in rushing and #2 overall in receiving against georgia
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13 minutes ago, GoBulls84 said:
A player who was the do-everything back here has averaged (if you include kickoffs) almost 10 touches a game. Take out the kick returns and it's 7 touches a game. For a 2-time All American
obviously he didn't leave for more playing time.
he left for more exposure and probably money
doesn't hurt they play in front of 90k fans
he was a 2 time all american as a returner.
they only have 12 kick returns as a team so I assume he is their primary returner.
he is a long shot for nfl. why not make a few bucks.
I appreciate his time here.
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5 minutes ago, TallyBull said:
I'm thinking yes. There's potential for a significant turnaround this year (which I define as anything better 6-6). One could legitimately ask whether the turnaround would be as significant if we weren't the beneficiaries of a weaker schedule, but I belong to the "you play who's in front of you" camp of CFB, and we played well against a far more talented team in 'Bama.
WKU was a winnable game even though it was our coach's first game (new to us and to head coaching) and new offensive and defensive schemes.
I think this is evidence that there are indeed coaches out there that don't need a 3-year window to build a program before seeing success. Pick the right guy, and you can most certainly win right away, unless perhaps you have zero talent.
I agree with this. with the portal it's much easier for good coaches to win right away.
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17 minutes ago, CousinRicky said:
Do you know what the analytics say about going for it on 4th and 2 from your own 28? I don't remember the exact scenario but let's just go with those numbers just for fun. What play call does the analytics say will work best for USF in that scenario? Run it up the gut? With which RB? QB sneak with push from behind? To the left, right or directly over center? Quick toss to your RB? Left, right? Again which RB? Play action then toss to a TE veering toward the sideline? You can say it's analytics but it could be a gut call hoping to boost the team's moral.
What do you do with a starting pitcher who has thrown 98 pitches in the 7th inning, runners on base with one out? Who's pitching? Is it Verlander or Quackenbush? You may leave Verlander in there but probably not the other guy.
I can't believe analytics has seen every scenario play out in the past. There are trends and numbers supporting how long to leave a pitcher in but not all pitchers are the same.
In USF's case maybe they make the 1st down with a different play call.
Don't think anyone is saying not to take risk. Believe most of us have said that closer to midfield you take the risk.
I believe it was 4th and 1 from our 30 down by 7 in the 1st quarter. Like I said the scenario is just better than a coin flip as to whether or not going for it improves our chances to win.
You will never have perfect information and there will always be a reason not to go for it.
The Rays pulled Snell in a playoff game where he was about to go through the lineup for a 3rd time. Had a 1 hitter going if I remember correctly. Everybody railed against the decision when it didn't work out but the rays made the correct decision according to their analysis. the Rays are so successful because they stick to the analytics.
we are 11 of 19 in going for it on 4th down this year. we went for it on 4th down later near our own 40 and made it. actually we went for it again on 4th and 4 during the same drive and we made that one too.that drive led to a TD.
funny nobody ever says it's the wrong thing to do when we make it.
Coaches like CAG understand possessions are more important than field position. Coaches like charlie strong believe field position is more important. we have had plenty of coaches that have cost us wins over the years for being too conservative.
Fact is CAG is a risk taker and if it even gives him a slight edge he will go for it. People better get used to it because we won't always make it.
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7 minutes ago, IBulleve said:
I’m very aware. Pounding the table that analytics are important, useful, and even critical to a functioning sports organization today isn’t the conversation we’re having. We’re discussing whether or not to blindly use %’s in game theory.
I’m very pro-analytics, especially when it comes to roster construction in baseball.
But game theory isn’t a perfect science, especially not at the lower collegiate level where there’s more variables than the pro game.
Example - a lot of these generic game theory models would tell you to go for it on 4th and 1 whether you’re facing Navy or the New England Patriots. Surely we can agree there’s matchups and factors that need to be considered in these potential different circumstances, correct?
Thus, why you don’t blindly trust the numbers
note: I say “lower” in terms of a relatively bad football team that doesn’t execute at the level of a professional team.
never said it was perfect science and honestly the odds say it's barely above a coin flip as to whether or not it increases your chances of winning.
I'd rather a coach that is considered too aggressive than the opposite.
and our fans better get used to it because CAG seems like a risk taker.
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6 minutes ago, BDYZR said: coach+uses+analytics+but+goes+with+his+gut - Google Search
WWW.GOOGLE.COM
From the top article in your search:
But don't forget, Harbaugh still trusts his gut above all else. It's just that his gut believes in his players, and his nature believes in being aggressive. Thus, he often aligns with the analytics.
Many of those articles were from 3+ years ago. What you need to understand is that the younger more innovative coaches will use analytics even more. Harbaugh is an old school coach that realizes it gives him an edge. Older coaches tend to be too conservative when managing games.
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Just now, BDYZR said:
Highly doubt that last comment is correct.
true. you're right.
only people who don't understand analytics or math still go with their gut
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2 minutes ago, IBulleve said:
Using a baseball teams approach to justify your opinion on football game theory is a wild take lol.
it's the way all successful sports organizations are run now. they all have analytics departments. even nfl teams.
nobody goes by their gut instincts anymore.
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8 minutes ago, michibull said:
The way I see it, every coaching job is a stepping stone with the exception of a handful of schools (Notre Dame, OSU, Mich, USC, Texas, LSU and Alabama). If I were CAG and were ultra competitive and successful here; as long as USF were paying me very well (think 6-8 mil per year), had access to the CFP, and got moved to a P5, I wouldn’t move until I had an offer from one of those schools. Now, if USF was only willing to pay me 3-4 mil and the CFP went away and didn’t get USF into a P5, then I wouldn’t blame him for jumping to UF, Georgia, etc. I think as long as we can pay him in the range of what other schools will pay him and he can have the same success and exposure as P5’s (CFP), I can see him staying here. CAG seems super genuine and down to earth and that bodes well for loyalty as long as it’s reciprocated. I really like CAG and the potential is there. I finally excited about our present and future!!
Notre Dame's coach left for LSU
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3 minutes ago, IBulleve said:
This is the correct take. Blindly following the analytics is just as bad as blindly opposing them. They’re a tool that should be used accordingly
if you don't follow them "blindly" then you are just using your gut.
the rays follow analytics "blindly". seems to be working out ok for them.
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1 minute ago, olafberserker said:
so can playing scared
absolutely.
not every risk will be rewarded but never taking a risk assures you to never be rewarded.
Conference realignment "Rumors" "tweets" "etc"
in USF South Florida Bulls Athletics
Posted
#16 ranked Duke would disagree.
ACC has 5 ranked teams. even if you take out the teams that are supposedly leaving, they still have 3 ranked teams.
I love how our fans think we are so high and mighty. It's why teams like UAB and FAU kick our pompous ass. somehow our fans think they are beneath us and it motivates them.