bcgruber

1) South Florida
2) 6
3) Selton - 19
4) Stroud -7
5) 77%

20 minutes ago, flsportsfan83 said:

Bet USF on the Money Line. Hope SMU is favored by 100

I thought you were a huge SMU fan and thought they were worth the risk of winning the conf?  I'm with ya ML if SMU is favored Sunday.  Think USF will win outright.  The game against Char is the one that scares me more

2 hours ago, Triple B said:

I don't think you must be drunk but not seeing ours as a better conference without UH and Cincy doesn't make sense. I think the AAC will get stronger than it is now and may get there but certainly isn't now.

I'm not saying better, just not a huge decrease either, its not as big as a drop off as people want to make of it.  If we had kept those teams we would be a 3-4 bid leauge.  My bigger gripe is the metric NET is garbage.

27 minutes ago, flsportsfan83 said:

You must be drunk if you think the replacements overall are better than Hou UCF and Cincy.

you really think ucf and cinci is a huge upgrade basketball wise over uab, charl, and unt?  FAU last yrs final 4 team is that much seperated from Houston.  You must only look at biased numbers for your thinking.  I rely on watching these teams play basketball on the court.

If you like to go by rankings so much my judgement is the ELO ranking more closely represent the ranking of basketball teams

FAU 17       Houston 3

UAB 65      Cinci 74

Charl 82     UCif 124

UNT 111

Those are very close so again I would argue it wasn't much of a loss other then in the media's eyes on the court its a wash

This NET is sucha a joke that it is so widely used as a determining factor.  I would argue the American is a better conf with UAB, UNT FAU and Char.  then it would be with UH, Cinci and UCif.  Also when was the last time that a conference leader this late in the season would have 4 teams this far ahead of them in the NET.  Head to head has to mean more then a computer, the eye test has to mean more then a computer.  It will be a travesty if USF doesnt go dancing...unless we lose 4 of our last 6

30 minutes ago, panchosanchez99 said:

Hey BCGruber, I think this is the Week 6 poll. Can you find the Week 7 or 8 poll? From what I recall, we had jumped to around 27th. You can see that Iowa is 27th in this poll. In the Week 7 poll, they jumped to 23rd. We then beat them, which I think moved us up into the high 20s. We then lost to Cincinnati and we never got closer.

I couldnot find the week 7 poll, unfortunately they only show the top 25 and not the receiving votes on these old polls.  I think I looked at the schedule from that year and we lost 3 in a row after the iowa game, so its doubtfull we got any higher.  But my meomory had us really close, much closer then the attachement poll.  thought someone would have a little better recolection

Think this years team will be the most wins and least losses in program history

3 hours ago, John Lewis said:

Overall record, or regular season?

 

I know this was discussed before what is USF highest ranking.  I thought I remember being 21 when it was top just top 20 or was it 26?  This was the closest thing I could drum up.  Does anyone else know for sure?

Need to get to AAC Finals for a shot at an at large.....just keep winning.  Not sure if a tight loss in here before the tourney might be good.  I know this team likes a target on their backs but I'm not sure,  but I trust CAAR

Dropped 1 to 93 with a victory on the road.  The Net is a bad metric ELO much better in my opinion

me too hate the .5 pt loss

Might have locked in a double bye, not exactly sure....the eye needs to be on #1 seed

This is hard for me....top 25 ranking helps our case slightly for an at large, but should we sneak in, then a top 25 ranking won't help us sneak up on anybody come NCAAT time

7 hours ago, Bull Matrix said:

The missed FT at the end

From a 91% FT Shooter 

You always got OT an OVER's best friend

I guess we just ad Karter to the winner

9 hours ago, USFBulls12 said:

Correct, but there just aren't any additional opportunities than what I laid out. FAU may or may not stay a Quad 1 and SMU may or may not get to a Quad 1. But it's unlikely others get us a Quad 1 win.

memphis and UNT could both jump back to Quad 1 if things happen correctly

wins can change quadrants its not based on when you play its as of that moment.  So we might have some more opportunities

50's NEt is probably way to aggressive but still think its possible to get into the 60's  we have 3-4 quad 1-2 games remaining.  And those teams also have the potential to move up in the net which would help our net.  Again our best hope is still to win the tourney.  At large and we can maybe afford one loss and that would have to be to smu or 49ers

26 minutes ago, Triple B said:

Per that article, the committee has said in the past that the timing wasn't a factor but it has apparently played a part in some higher ranked teams not making the Tourney. Also, that article is wrong in that we do have a Quad 1 win right now with SMU knocking on the door at #34. Bottom line, though, is the lowest NET ranked team to make the Tourney was a 77. We are still a long shot even if we win all the way to the conf finals but we would definitely be in the conversation until the end if that happens, I think, because of the timing of those losses.

 

If we keep taking care of business we could have a few more quad 1 wins and a Net in the 50-60 range

2 hours ago, flsportsfan83 said:

at that value. I think its a good bet. I wouldn't touch it at +300 but for almost 5 x's your bet for a team that I think might be the best team in the league. They would have to beat USF though, which I suspect they will be favored in that game. A loss to FAU tonight would sink them though. I think they take out FAU. They are a better team. 

what makes you think SMU is the best team in the league?  My observation isn't as high since I've seen them struggle with some of the lower teams....Then again Rice has given us fits

1) South Florida
2) 10
3) Pryor- 21
4) Stroud - 10
5) 83%

12 minutes ago, BullyPulpit said:

The quality non-conference wins just aren't there for the AAC this season, aside from Memphis and FAU. I haven't seen a computer metric that doesn't show the MWC as being significantly better as a conference than the AAC. The MWC had the 5th best non-conference winning percentage while the AAC was 10th. The MWC has the 4th highest RPI, while the American is 10th. We are behind the A10 and the MVC this season in terms of top-to-bottom quality. That is saying something. Make no mistake, I believe that the AAC is better than its rankings, but the MWC is the better conference, especially at the top. 

That is why the cumputer system is too biased.  Memphis is way up on their metrics becasue of some quality wins very early on.  Now they are a mess.  they wouldn't win any of those games today.  FAU beat a very good Arizona team basically on the road.  They have taken everyones best shot in the low rated AAC yet are still right there at the top.  FAU is a very good team that returned 14 of 15 players and a week ago every pundit was expecting another run at a final 4...and we just beat that team, basically embarrased them for the first 30 min of that game.  USF is a very good basketball team as well and would beat most of those MWC on a nuetral site in my opinion.  I would put our top 5 up against their top 5 and think results would be very even 

Shows how biased these polls are again....Not being a total homer, but the AAC is way undervalued, the MWC is way over valued this year.  All because of the names on the front of the Jersey's.  The AAC has alot of really good basketball teams that could win a game or 2 in the NCAAT FAU, UAB, Charlotte and us are really good teams SMU is a slight notch below in my mind and Memphis has the talent to be the best of all of us.  Rice is actually a really tough team just hasn't put it all together, ECU is decent and Tulane should be better then their record.  They are talking 6 teams in the MWC  and AQ for AAC makes no sense from anyone who watches alot of College BBall.

Dickie V voted us 25