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Mike Stuben

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Posts posted by Mike Stuben

  1. 1 hour ago, John Lewis said:

    That isn't entirely true.

    There are a handful of courtside season ticket members who sit across from the visiting bench who are under 40. There is also a young group of Iron Bulls who are waiting to purchase courtside seats.

    The cost per floor seat for the season is $1,500. Divide that over the 18 games and that averages out to $83.33 per ticket per game. That cost also includes the arena club buffet and parking for all home games. Pretty darn good deal at that cost.

    There is a young guy who sits front row behind the scorers table who looks like he is late 20s. I know that isn't courtside, but he helps prove this point. 

  2. ACC invite happens only after they 100% know they are losing members. 

    Big 12 invite happens only after they 100% know they won't have the power to raid ACC teams. 

    Big 10 invite only happens after they conclude they only want AAUs and either decide we are better at a discount than Miami at full price, or Miami can't get out of the ACC. (or they decide they want to Florida AAUs)

    SEC invite only happens after Big 10 takes both Miami and FSU and they decide they need 1 more FL school to still claim the state as SEC country. 

     

    I am not saying any of these 4 scenarios happens, but something has to happen first in all of them. (and that thing we may never know that it happened, as it may happen privately and never come out).

    • Like 1
    • Upvote 3
  3. I do think the ranking is important in a particular scenario. 

    Lets say we win our next 4-5 games, but lose in the tournament. I think the ranking impacts the committee for at large. 

    The other thing, I want as much national attention to USF, as it can help us with upcoming realignment. 

    Obviously, we gotta beat Charlotte for any of this conversation to matter. 

    • Upvote 2
  4. 4 hours ago, 79 Bull said:

    This is super misleading due to the size of home courts.  FAU is in "good teams with few fans" while they have sold out their arena in forever.  It only holds 3,000.

    The last time I was at a FAU game in Boca in MBB, the attendance was 8 (yes, me plus 7 other people) ..... they started drawing recently. I just don't want anyone who doesn't know them to think they have been filling that building for years. In reality, it has been less than 2 years. 

    • Like 1
  5. 3 minutes ago, UCF_rustbucket said:

    The SEC wanting USF is a possible but unlikely scenario. What I'm saying is that the SEC scrambling to add you to cut off the Big 12 is about as 0% as I can rate a scenario because the SEC will always be able to pick off the Big 12 on their own time. 

    Agree in general. But something like a GOR can impact timelines. We don't actually know how they will hold up in court yet. 

    And, SEC may simply want a second FL school to combat Big 10, in my made up scenario, and pick us over C. 

    • Haha 1
    • Upvote 2
  6. 13 minutes ago, UCF_rustbucket said:

    Eh. The SEC doesn't need to do any of that. You only block when it matters who gets to that school first. The Big 12 can't catch up to the SEC in any way so any existing Big 12 school and any prospective schools like USF would never be locked in forever just because the Big 12 came calling first. The SEC will always be able to pick anyone from the Big 12 if that's what they really wanted. 

    Think TCU who got a Big East invite first. But then once the Big 12 decided they needed them, they were able to pluck them without problem because they were higher on the totem pole than the collapsing Big East.

    I said extreme long shot. Just a possible, but unlikely, scenario. 

  7. 12 minutes ago, Mike Stuben said:

    Let's say one of two things happen:

    Big 10 Presidents stick to wanting AAU or FSU goes to SEC. 

    Big 10 wants into Florida. 

    USF at a 50% payout that builds over time may be the move. 

    USF and Miami may be the move. 

    ACC GOR stands, Big10 wants in now, USF may be the move. 

    Here is where I think we will end up (under the assumption we make a move):

    ACC 45%

    Big 12 30%

    Big 10 20%

    SEC 5%

     

    Big 10 is down the list, but it is very much in play. 

    By the way, the SEC, which is an extreme longshot, would be a scenario like this:

    ACC shatters. Big 10 takes FSU and Miami. 

    Big 12 looking at USF, and SEC takes USF to block Big 12, as they don't want to be behind both Big 12 and Big 10 in Florida. 

    That is the most unlikely scenario, but the chances are greater than 0%. 

    • Upvote 1
  8. 14 minutes ago, John Lewis said:

    There are certainly rational points in our favor depending on how big a risk that the B1G would want to take to have a footprint in the Southeast.

    Let's say one of two things happen:

    Big 10 Presidents stick to wanting AAU or FSU goes to SEC. 

    Big 10 wants into Florida. 

    USF at a 50% payout that builds over time may be the move. 

    USF and Miami may be the move. 

    ACC GOR stands, Big10 wants in now, USF may be the move. 

    Here is where I think we will end up (under the assumption we make a move):

    ACC 45%

    Big 12 30%

    Big 10 20%

    SEC 5%

     

    Big 10 is down the list, but it is very much in play. 

    • Like 1
  9. 16 minutes ago, GoBulls84 said:

    They're at 17 now with the new additions. Let's say they lose 4, they're back down to 13. I think they add 3 to get to an even 16 (yes, B1G and SEC are up to 18+, but I can't see ACC adding 5 schools). My hope is the Pac-2 just absorbs the MW in some fashion and the ACC ends up adding us, Tulane (close enough to the current footprint, fits the academic prestige of the conference, strong football recently) and UConn (for the obvious basketball reasons), leaving the conference looking like this:
     

    • Louisville
    • NC State
    • Georgia Tech
    • Virginia Tech
    • Duke
    • Boston College
    • Miami
    • Syracuse
    • Pitt
    • Wake
    • Cal
    • Stanford
    • SMU
    • USF
    • Tulane
    • UConn

    That's still a pretty strong basketball conference despite losing UNC and UVA. Football is still strong-ish with plenty of programs with potential with the P4 resources. Not sure what kind of TV deal that pulls, but certainly better than our current deal (obviously).

    There is one more scary thought. Does NC politicians pressure ACC to take ECU. 

    • Upvote 1
    • Me no likey 1
  10. 10 minutes ago, GoBulls84 said:

    Will they though? The Big 12 would have the same thing in this situation that it had when the Pac started falling apart ... stability. They know what they have in their TV deal and know they just have to stick together to outlast the ACC. It's the same thing that happened with the Pac-12 after USC and UCLA left. The Pac was suddenly unstable without a TV deal and the Big 12 was already locked in with a bunch of teams nobody else was plucking anymore. The Pac got increasingly unstable as the months passed and eventually the "stable" Big 12 plucked their teams.

    The ACC will likely be backfilling with G5 teams unless ESPN or whoever else comes back to them to say they'll boost their TV deal X amount of dollars by adding power conference teams (which isn't likely to happen). 

    Here is where it gets scary. ACC just added 3 teams. If they lose 4 teams, what if they decide to just add 1. 

    If they add 1, who are the contenders: USF, UConn, Tulane, West Coast team. 

    UConn offers big time basketball and fits into their traditional footprint. 

    USF offers football potential and fits into their traditional footprint. 

    Tulane give SMU some company and bridges that geographic divide. 

    West Coast bolsters their presense as a nationwide conference. (I didn't break down the options, but the PAC 2 schools or San Diego State are most likely)

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