UCF_rustbucket

1 hour ago, Bull Matrix said:

Why wouldn’t he be? His Alma mater is OK State & his daughter attended UCF. 

He's never been particularly friendly towards us. He's let off with his daughter here but doesn't necessarily hype us or the Big 12. Which I know can seem like a positive compared to the personal beef he has with USF lol.

I'm more inclined to believe your other post about what they're being fed by their sources. Sometimes it's clear but other times the reporters are just being used unknowingly. Like when a few were told that the PAC minus Colorado had patched things up and were all about to sign the GOR when the truth was that Oregon and Washington didn't even show up for the meeting and just texted Kliavkoff that they were leaving.

25 minutes ago, Cat941 said:

Versus losing them to the B1G?  They might be willing to play defense here.   

Many B12 homers in the media and on social media.   Can't trust most of 'em.  

Although I do enjoy reading and sharing their spin.   

 

McMurphy isn't a Big 12 homer though. Berry Tramel or any of the multitude of fake big 12 insiders on Twitter, yes.

44 minutes ago, Dave_Glaser said:

Everybody’s source knows all the inside skinny, huh? Laughable stuff day after day.

Everyone online always pretends to have sources. What would be fun is to instead become a fake source and feed all these Twitter accounts some well thought out fake news.

13 minutes ago, BULLSHTR said:

I feel like FSU is either winning Nattys or doing really badly.. and that's in the ACC. If FSU does go to the SEC, it's possible they may never even win their conference again. Have fun with that Noles fans.

At the end of the day though, as a fan, I would rather have exciting weekly matchups than have an easy route to the national championship, because those are rare and no need to expect one. What a tortured existence the bluebloods have.          50% /s

I'd say there's a pretty good chance that they may win 1 SEC title per generation if lucky. But the flip side to that is that with the 12 team playoffs, they don't need to win the whole thing. Top 4 SEC teams are probably in most years.

8 hours ago, olafberserker said:

Meh, ucf lost several guys last year when they let Lovelady go and they're back in the tournament this year.

7 hours ago, Dave_Glaser said:

I wouldn't lose sleep over any guys on the current roster entering the portal.

Was gonna add some version of both your messages. The right coach will bring hype and connections. If you're losing guys from a team that underperformed, it's not necessarily the end of the world. 

1 hour ago, Bull Matrix said:

Feel bad for the Oregon State fans. This is a fantasy. USF has a realistic chance to join a post raid ACC. I just don't see it happening for the PAC 2.

8 minutes ago, Bull Matrix said:

Didn’t they lose their QB too?

Yup. HC, current QB, RB, and even their prized QB recruit who followed their HC.

1 hour ago, Outlaw said:

 2pac representing in tier 1 is such a shame. The last ruling on being paid to players directly made it seem the pac2 is still a power conference. Are they expanding or is the ACC going to invite them? USf is closer to the ACC academics, but is closer to athletics for b12 teams because the conference has zero national champions left over the last 25 years.

I read that because of when the lawsuit started, teams voted in the old P5 lineups. At least the PAC 12 did. Oklahoma and Texas may have voted with the SEC. The PAC is done for as a power conference. Autonomy status is gone, CFP autobid gone, CW TV deal no better than what the AAC gets, CFP payout less than all the P4 and less than what the PAC got in the 4 team playoff era. I think Oregon State and Washington State are Mountain West bound though they'll delay doing it until the very end as they hope for better.

2 hours ago, John Lewis said:

If you’re talking about this season, or even the foreseeable future, that would not happen. Our OOC schedule is miles ahead of theirs and our league is better.

To further support John's point, just have to look at the final CFP ranking for 2023. Liberty went 13-0 and only got ranked 23. That's the lowest of any G5 NY6 rep in the CFP era. Even ones who had 2 losses like 2014 Boise (20) and 2022 Tulane (16). SMU was 11-2 and just barely behind Liberty at 24. Things can always change but for right now, a CUSA conference slate is not highly respected by the CFP committee.

1 hour ago, Cubanbull said:

That P2 expansion should had been done while they still had an automatic CFP spot. Probably to late now.

The current tv contract the P2 has with ace etc is reported to be around 6-8 million. Not much different than what USF gets currently from AAC. The P2 gets 3.6 million per year from CFP, USF and ACC will het 1.8 million. I don’t think the difference  in payouts to CFP access as is currently is enough to get USF to move.

So for the P2 expansion to be successful they must at least get a tv contract in the 10-15 million range. Anything lower than that would mean the league has to get better CFP access or payments.

Agreed on that. 10-15M range definitely is what they would need when you factor the exit fees that AAC and MWC teams have to pay. No one is dropping upwards of 10M to get a small bump in CFP money. Which honestly not sure they'd extend the 3.6M to new members. They might have done that as a courtesy to OSU/WSU as former P5 teams. 

49 minutes ago, Peatearpan said:

No way Power status is retained in this scenario.

Exactly. Look at how the P4 have treated the PAC2 so far. No invite to any P4 conferences, stripped away autonomy status, voted to go from 6 autobids to 5. 

If they don't respect these 2 leftover PAC teams as peers, adding 6 to 12 G5s won't fool anyone into treating it like a P5 again. The PAC as a power conference is dead. If it rebuilds or merges with the MWC, it'll be as a G5 just like the old Big East/AAC.

3 hours ago, bowman1 said:

The better what if IMO is if we had an OCS in 2016 - it’s possible that we keep CWT for 2017, thereby missing CCS and CJS altogether 

In this scenario, we probably have winning records in 2018 & 2019 (regardless of the coach), propelling USF into the Big12 potentially 

I don't think an OCS would have had that level of impact on keeping a rising HC from getting poached by the P5. We've had an OCS and still lost Frost to Nebraska and Heupel to Tennessee. I think the what if scenario that would have gotten you to the Big 12 was successfully hiring another young assistant instead of low effort retread. Even with a young guy it's still a gamble like you saw with CJS but from day 1, Strong just wanted to put the least effort lipstick on a CWT assembled roster to land back at a P5 job ASAP.

1 hour ago, Bull Matrix said:

What an idiot. Big 12 commish basically putting basketball 1st over football. ACC will eventually cherry pick the football schools 

He's not lol this random Auburn blog that scrapes all the made up rumors from Twitter and packages them into articles that look real is claiming he is. The fact that their last article has Swaim as a source should say it all.

22 hours ago, StDee said:

meh...reading the tea leaves this guy saw the incoming transfer DBs from Ohio St, USC and Ole Miss and decided to bolt. 

2024 College Football Transfer Portal

247SPORTS.COM

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2024 College football Transfer Portal

 

Yup, he was highly rated coming in but is a little undersized and by far missed the most tackles and graded poorly by PFF. Likely was losing playing time had he stayed. 

12 minutes ago, Peatearpan said:

He must have assumed that PAC would overcome their odd west coast elitism to be proactive and expand.

Can you imagine if they snatched up TT, Ok State, Kansas; instead of imploding?

They had any of the Big 12 to choose from and they would have jumped. But that just would have shifted where some of the 2nd tier P4 teams coalesced. It'd be PAC centered instead of Big 12 centered. The B1G bound teams probably leave still but instead of OSU and WSU left out, it's Baylor, Kansas State, Iowa State, and WVU. 

Where the PAC really dropped the ball was over a decade a go when they were on the verge of adding Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, and Colorado to make a PAC16. With a core of USC, UCLA, UW, UO, Texas, Oklahoma, and TAMU they would have been a legitimate equal challenger to the B1G and SEC brand wise.

17 minutes ago, Cat941 said:

 

Aw heck yeah! Random gut feeling percentages.

There was one dude on the Texas Tech board a few years ago, righter after Texas and Oklahoma left, that would post updated percentage numbers for TT landing in the PAC or SEC. Some say he's still making up numbers to this day.

18 minutes ago, jmbull said:

I agree with you. They don’t have to give names but at least give us an idea as to where the money going or is it all just going to pay for the salaries of the collective staff? We couldn’t pay any of our players last year. Are any in our current squat being paid. My guess is Reid otherwise he would have left too.  Did he get paid after they tried to poach him?

Something similar to how non profits are evaluated to see which are really helping the cause and which are lining their own pockets. Just a high level breakdown ofb% to operational costs (staff and any events they put on to attract more donors) vs % to NIL. 

2 hours ago, aroth said:

Imagine SMU agreeing to accept nothing and having to pay to get out to got to the B12. For having a bunch of rich alumni this sure would be a bad financial move. 

What would massively suck for them is if the ACC falls apart before they even get ACC tv payout. But I think some version of the ACC will survive.

If I'm the Big 12 though and ACC teams are calling, SMU isn't one I'm taking. They're still fresh from the G5 world. Obviously I have some bias as a UCF fan, but I don't think SMU did anything impressive on the field like the 4 G5 that the Big 12 took. They've been okay to good in the last 5 years and only just won their first conference title since they got hit with the death penalty. They bought their way in.

21 hours ago, 94 Bull said:

This is the same guy who never showed at his signing day with Miami and just left them standing there. 

USF doesn't need a prima donna causing dissention on the team.

The talent is there but once a player consistently shows himself to be a diva, strong chance they won't reach their full potential. We just had Goldie Lawrence enter the portal and he fit that bill. Was committed to us, flipped and signed with FSU, left them after a year to come back to us, left us after just spring ball. Word is that he had an attitude and was always late to meetings and practices. Some guys are used to being better than everyone with little effort that they don't make the right adjustments when they move up to college ball.

3 hours ago, Cubanbull said:

Not entirely correct. Oklahoma and Texas never signed that 99 year membership. That was done with the new contract by the remaining members and the newcomers to stabilize the league and promising they weren’t going to leave. Utah got a special deal where they didn’t sign to that. How would that affect anyone outside of Utah trying to leave remains to be seen.

Not true at all. The 99 year membership portion was added back in 2012, with both Texas and Oklahoma signing onto it.

https://www.si.com/college/2023/02/03/big-12-sec-texas-longhorns-oklahoma-sooners-split-explainer

"There are two key issues in any early exit from Texas and Oklahoma:

The grant of rights/TV contract: The two schools are contractually bound to the league through the end of the 2024–25 academic year via what is termed a grant of rights, which coincides with the league’s television deal with ESPN and Fox.

The 99-year agreement: In 2012, the Big 12 schools entered into a 99-year agreement to remain together, a deal that comes with an exit fee of two years’ worth of gross revenue, or about $80 million each."

All this to say, the 99 year membership clause isn't a scary insurmountable obstacle to leaving and Utah not having it isn't some smoking gun.

5 hours ago, Cubanbull said:

Don’t think WV will be it.

First from what I heard ALL the B12 schools signed off on a long term GOR. I believe Utah was the only one that went in with a special note that said they didn’t give up those rights.

If you look at ACC after FSU/ Clemson leaves, is a more academic conference outside off Louisville, so I’m thinking If they keep that ESPN contract deal, Utah is the most likely to bail out.

The 99 year membership thing causes a lot of confusion but it's different from the GOR. All teams including Utah will have signed the same GOR that runs through the 2030-31 athletic season. The membership length is just some legalese to put a length instead of infinite period of time for conference membership. Note that Oklahoma and Texas also had signed onto the same 99 year membership clause but it was the GOR that was the sticking point that resulted in them leaving only 1 year before the end of the GOR.

It's not really a barrier but any teams wanting to leave the Big 12 will have to wait until 2031, negotiate to shave a little bit off of that like OU/UT, or fight in court like FSU and Clemson.

21 minutes ago, Bull Matrix said:

Interesting….

OSU hopium lol Oregon State and Wazzu aren't a cultural fit with the ACC. Why go for 2 rural Pacific NW schools when you have plenty of eastern, urban, strong academic schools like USF and UConn available. Heck, I'd even take Memphis over those 2 because they're not really worthy of growing the western wing of the ACC.

10 minutes ago, Cat941 said:

Another way to say that a G5 team wouldn't have the ability to ever join the upper teir permanently.  Only G5 subject to this?  Would about the independent UConn?  

Correct. Which isn't surprising given how the G5 was shafted with the CFP payout for the next contract. Only G5 subject to this. 

But I wouldn't worry about it, because the SEC and B1G would become weaker in this proposed format compared to the power they've amassed in their current form. Unless they get guaranteed bigger payouts of some sort, the B1G has no reason to lose PSU, USC, Oregon, etc and same with the SEC and losing Texas and Oklahoma. 

You can usually see the fingerprints of the architect. And in this case I think it's WVU and Syracuse and some others. Aka P5 bubble teams that want to lock in their status as equal to the blue bloods while also locking out the G5 from catching them. 

2 minutes ago, Cat941 said:

So no ability to elevate from G5?!  

Not permanently. 10 G5 teams will play with the P5, but still be open to being demoted and traded for a different G5 based on performance. European soccer style.