bullsfan1983

2-5 are all pretty close in poll points. In 2017 there were 5 teams within 2 games of first. Wouldn’t worry too much about it. 

Boise out of conference schedule next year is Troy, BYU, UConn, and Oklahoma State. Even if they run the table and Oklahoma State is a top 4 team they won’t make the CFP playoff. It’s a suckers bet. 

Just now, JTrue said:

I’m not 100% sure just because you have a computer you’re a “major” ranking service.

You aren’t. These were components of the old BCS. You can read about major selectors that award national championships here. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_football_national_championships_in_NCAA_Division_I_FBS

the three I mentioned are major selectors. UCF is actual #1 in more than 10 computer rankings in the Massey composite. Maybe that’s what you were thinking of. 

10 minutes ago, JTrue said:

Which 3 would those be?

They are currently at #1 in Wolfe, and #2 in Colley Matrix and Anderson & Hester. In those two they trail only Georgia with a good sized lead on Alabama. You can do a hypothetical game of Alabama over Georgia on the Colley Matrix site and see UCF would be #1. 

Just now, Triple B said:

So how do we figure NCAA football wild cards?

Things are always about $$$ at some point, but it's also about getting things right and to get this right, you're always going to have opinions in the process .... and I am definitely not against expanding the playoffs, just that it won't be as "simple" as you seem to think it would be.

Best way would be to have some sort of loss criteria to avoid a 3 or 4 loss conference champion sliding in (maybe have that for the non power 5), but at the very least any undefeated team should get a shot in the playoff. 

3 minutes ago, JTrue said:

Here's a good rule of thumb. If you have to claim the title rather than someone else giving it to you, it's ********.

Actually all consensus titles are claimed. Unclaimed titles are those awarded by a major selector but not recognized by the school. I have never heard of a claimed title where a major selector doesn’t pick the team as #1. In 2010 TCU was #1 in the rankings of 1 selector, and in 2008 Utah was #1 in two rankings, but the schools did not claim a national title. I believe UCF has the chance to be #1 in 3 major selector rankings if Alabama beats Georgia in the CFP championship game. 

1 minute ago, MikePhillips said:

Look, UCF certainly deserves the credit of beating Auburn...

But let's be real - Auburn had to play Clemson, Miss State, LSU, Arkansas, Georgia, Alabama before they played UCF

The wear and tear on a team, after playing Clemson, Miss State, LSU, Arkansas, Georgia, Alabama is extensive. The injuries alone, the damage to the players, the wear and tear on the team and the student athletes... something has to be said about that

UCF beat an Auburn team, that was already beaten to a pulp from their season. Yes they beat them, but if UCF played Clemson, Miss State, LSU, Arkansas, Georgia, and Alabama rolling into the Auburn game, there wouldn't be much left

Also, keep in mind that many of Auburn's players are going into the NFL. They aren't going to risk their professional athletic careers, playing a college with a cupcake schedule compared to theirs

Who remember's last year vs FSU? Imagine playing teams at that caliber, all year round. USF would be a bloody pulp at the end the season, and so would UCF

 

I'm just trying to make a point, that Auburn had to play the best teams in the country before rolling into that final game, UCF did not. UCF was good, but with Auburn's schedule, they wouldn't have batted .500, and neither would we.

 

Auburn had a month to rest for the Peach Bowl. The wear and tear is what caused them to lose the SEC championship game when their conference player of the year was a shell of himself due to a shoulder injury. That player had 27 carries against UCF even when he was a NFL prospect.

To get in we would need to beat 2 high ranked teams out of conference, then beat probably 3 ranked teams in conference. Basically have a situation like this year with Memphis and UCF and beat them both and then beat Memphis again in the CCG. Lots of dominoes would have to fall into place to get a shot. Even then they will still come up with excuses to keep us out.

5 minutes ago, NewEnglandBull said:

To put together a schedule that would allow an AAC team to get into the playoffs is impossible. You would need to schedule three top ten teams (and doing this looking five years in the future). You would also, more than likely, play at their place. Of course you would also have the challenge of actually beating those three teams. Next, you would have to go undeafeted in conference play. With all of that, it still may not be enough.  

I think Houston had a chance last year as they had 2 #3 teams scheduled out of conference and beat them both. They would have been on the radar but tripped up with the AAC conference schedule.

I know Houston beat #3 Oklahoma and #3 Louisville last year in the regular season, but am not sure there have been many other matchups against top 10 P5. Tulane lost to #2 Oklahoma this year. Memphis beat #13 Ole Miss in 2015. Would be tough to compile a record and not sure it would mean much since you are talking all of G5 vs the top 10 teams. I doubt even P5 teams would have a very favorable record against top 10 teams in general. I think the bowl record is a better indicator.

15 minutes ago, Triple B said:

Just wondering, though, in the P5 era, what is the G5 regular season record versus top 10 P5's?

2017 UCF vs #7 Auburn - W

2016 Western Michigan vs. #8 Wisconsin - L

2015 Houston vs #9 Florida State - W

2014 Boise State vs. #10 Arizona - W

2013 UCF vs #6 Baylor - W

2010 TCU vs #5 Wisconsin - W

2008 Utah vs #4 Alabama - W

2007 Hawaii vs #5 Georgia - L

2006 Boise State vs #9 Oklahoma - W

Either 6-2 or 7-2 depending if you include UCF in 2013 in the first year of the American which is a G5 conference but had the Big East AQ spot.

Edit: Realized you said regular season record. Hmm that would be interesting to see.

If they expand the playoff they aren't throwing an automatic berth to the G5. IMO that is what makes the NCAA tournament exciting. You can watch Kansas be a 1-3 seed and get knocked out by a double digit seed **** near ever year. 12-14 seeds knocking out top seeds is fairly common in the NCAA tournament. G5 teams beating P5 teams in BCS/NY6 bowls is the norm. Why would they give G5 teams a shot at the playoff? They want to control the matchups and get Alabama in every year since they are a cash cow.

The bridges are already burned. The power conferences want a split from the G5 and all of the money. UCF just pointing out their hypocrisy in claiming that everyone has a shot and then a team goes 13-0 and doesn't even crack the top 10 in the committees eyes, but beats the team they were touting as the best team in the best conference division (SEC West) just a few short weeks ago. It may reek of desperation, but these are desperate times for the AAC to try to get some inclusion in the playoff system (maybe expansion to 8 with a G5 auto bid) before the gap widens even further.

41 minutes ago, Capital H said:

Its easily the most UCF thing imaginable. Schools like TCU, Boise, and Utah didn't have an inflated sense of self worth and a look at me attitude when the same thing happened to them in the last decade.

What do you expect from that fan base in that town. The delusion of grandeur has never been higher.

It's their AD that is claiming it.

18 minutes ago, JTrue said:

If you prefer Jeff Sagarin.

Alabama - 4-1 vs. top 30, 47 schedule

Clemson - 7-1 vs. top 30, 4 schedule

Oklahoma - 6-2 vs. top 30, 6 schedule

Georgia - 4-1 vs. top 30, 18 schedule 

UCF - 1-0 vs. top 30, 72 schedule

Why an arbitrary cutoff at 30? Is Memphis 31 or something? If you make the cutoff 41 then UCF is 4-0 and Alabama is 4-1. The point is Alabama has a loss. I'm not saying UCF is a top 4 team, but their resume is practically the same as Alabama who didn't even win their conference and backed into the CFP.

49 minutes ago, Rizman said:

If anything this is proof that Alabama didn't belong in the playoff since they have a weak SOS, a loss, and no conference title. FPI is a made up ESPN ranking so of course it will favor the teams they have in their playoff. Florida is a top 50 FPI. Florida State is top 20. You think those are good victories. Also Memphis lost by 1 to push them (barely) out of the top 25. Top 25 is an arbitrary cutoff. Alabama gets credit for 6 loss Florida State who needed to beat 3 cupcakes at the end to get a winning record, but you can disregard UCF's 3 wins over 10 win teams in USF and Memphis because of some ESPN FPI formula?

These are Florida State's wins

Southern Miss

Wake Forest

Duke

Syracuse

Delaware State

Florida

Louisiana Monroe

In fairness to UCF I think they deserve a shot. I think any undefeated team should have a path to a championship otherwise why play the games. I don’t think they would beat a team in this years playoffs, but they could. TCU was undefeated in 2010 and didn’t get a national championship, but at least the teams that did play in the BCS title game that year were also undefeated. 4 team playoff this year and none of them undefeated and 2 with bad losses. 

Didn’t Villanova just win the championship? Butler in the championship a few years back. Gonzaga a national power in the mix every year. In a CFP model these teams would be eliminated before the season began. 

It hurts to see UCF go undefeated but this helps churn up the debate to give American teams a shot at a national championship. As of right now that is the main recruiting disadvantage of the AAC is there is a perception that you cannot play for a national championship. Expand the playoffs to 8 and that would be huge. The ESPN cartel likes to spin the narrative that the American cannot compete with P5 teams, but the proof is in the pudding. We have held our own quite well. We definitely aren’t at a G5 level. The perception gap between the American and P5 conference teams narrowed a bit today. Just as it did when we beat TT and navy throttled Virginia.

10 hours ago, Azmodi said:

That would be fine but you have it in reverse. The Pitt-Miami game was at the Noon slot and we were at the 3:30pm slot which has a larger viewing audience. 

 

So you're saying they have a larger share of a smaller audience. right?

That its what I was saying. The rating is percentage of all viewers watching the game. Total number of television viewers depends on the time of day. Later in the day is more viewers. 

4 minutes ago, Azmodi said:

Can someone please explain to me why in week 13; they have the Pitt-Miami game with a higher rating then the USF-UCF, game even though the USF-UCF game drew a larger audience.

 The rating is more like share of the market. different time slots have different number of total television viewers. More people watching tv as the day progresses particularly accounting for the west coast and 3 hour time difference. 

5 turnovers and 2 pick 6s. Said there was a GA calling plays. Too bad. 

I didn’t think the army navy game was that exciting aside from the snow factor.

3 minutes ago, USFBulls727 said:

I was just wondering if the Temple-Navy CCG from last year out-did the bottom four conferences combined. I doubt it, but not sure.

Sun belt didn’t have a CCG, the other 3 drew 2.3 mil viewers combined. Temple-Navy drew just over 2 million. 1.3 million were for the MAC championship on the Friday before featuring an undefeated team. 

2 hours ago, NewEnglandBull said:

Will need to put these types of ratings together for multiple seasons for it not to be looked upon as an aberration. Contract negotiations start this Jan though so not sure how much these ratings wil help. 

The AAC is already putting up much better ratings numbers than the other "non power" conferences. There is a sizeable gap actually.

Black Friday match between Houston and Memphis on ABC last year had over 3 million viewers and was ahead of a PAC 12 matchup on FOX and an SEC matchup on CBS.

AAC Championship last season drew 50% more viewers than an undefeated team in the MAC championship, more than double the CUSA championship, and triple the MWC championship.

2015 AAC Championship drew 30% more viewers than the MAC, CUSA, and MWC championships combined, and the MAC championship was on a Friday with no competition.

There is plenty of ammunition for the AAC commish to go into the next round of negotiations and get a better deal for the conference.