I agree, it is really a bad fit for USF, unless the Big 12 expanded and added some other teams in the Florida area. I know it has been a logistic nightmare for WV.
I think the chances of UT and OU leaving the Big 12 are 90% or better. I am not sure where they will land, but, I expect Texas goes to the Pac or Big 10 and maybe OU to the same conferences, or, to the SEC. Expect OSU to follow OU, and Texas Tech to follow UT. I would hope OU and Texas stay together, but not sure.
There has been talk of a PAC division including UT, Tech, OSU, OU, Ariz, ASU, Colorado and Utah.
I hate the PAC and would hate the Big 10 almost as bad.
If this happens, expect the teams left in the Big 12 to look to a Conference like the AAC to expand and add them. IMO the Big 12 is dead.