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AJC: Recruiting rankings don’t necessarily predict NFL riches


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College football prospects are rated on a scale of one to five stars (5 representing the best, 1 the worst) coming out of high school. So how does that quantification translate to the just completed 2010 NFL draft?

As one might expect, the vast majority of the players selected in the first round of this past week’s draft came out of high school with a lot of stars next to their names. But not all of them.

In fact, one of the notable exceptions was the Atlanta Falcons’ draft pick. Linebacker Sean Weatherspoon, who the Falcons selected with the 19th pick, was considered a two-star recruit by both the Rivals and Scout recruiting services when he signed with Missouri out of Jasper High in Texas.

Weatherspoon, Idaho offensive lineman Mike Iupati, Boise State cornerback Kyle Wilson, Rutgers cornerback Devin McCourty and TCU defensive end Jerry Hughes made up a suprisingly large group of consensus two-star college prospects taken in the first round. And Fresno State running back Ryan Matthews, the No. 12 pick of the San Diego Chargers, got only a 2 from Rivals and a 3 from Scout coming out of Bakersfield, Calif.

Other than that, the draft’s first-round was mostly a star-studded affair.

http://blogs.ajc.com/recruiting/2010/04/26/recruiting-rankings-dont-necessarily-predict-nfl-riches/?cxntfid=blogs_recruiting

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Weatherspoon, Idaho offensive lineman Mike Iupati, Boise State cornerback Kyle Wilson, Rutgers cornerback Devin McCourty and TCU defensive end Jerry Hughes made up a suprisingly large group of consensus two-star college prospects taken in the first round. And Fresno State running back Ryan Matthews, the No. 12 pick of the San Diego Chargers, got only a 2 from Rivals and a 3 from Scout coming out of Bakersfield, Calif.

Sounds like half the voodoo of giving a player his star rating is just in the school he goes to.

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Six of the 32 players drafted in the first round were two-star recruits - and six is a "surprisingly large" number according to this - and yet the argument is that recruiting rankings are NOT a predictor of being drafted early? At 26 out of 32, more than 80 percent of first-round draft picks had three stars or more as high school recruits. Seems like a pretty good predictor to me.

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